The Bolsonarism Trap and the Limits of Lulism

Flaminia Mantegazza, Little Diary, 2015
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By MIGUEL ENRIQUE STEDILE*

Considerations on Valerio Arcary's recently released book

Taken at first glance, The Bolsonarism Trap and the Limits of Lulism is a set of texts published in various media outlets, written over the last two years, covering precisely the first half of Lula's third term. Each text can be read individually, as originally intended, as a conjunctural analysis, almost a testimonial political diary, of the years in which we still live in danger. That is, after the narrow victory in the presidential elections that changed the political correlation, but was not enough to change the correlation of social forces.

The strength of Valerio Arcary’s new work, however, lies in its being taken as a whole and in its entirety. In this respect, it recalls a passage from the text “Fascism is the True Face of Capitalism” (1935) by the German playwright Bertold Brecht: “Those who are against fascism without being against capitalism, who deplore the barbarity that comes out of barbarity, are like people who wish to eat veal without killing the calf. They are willing to eat the calf, but they do not like the sight of blood. They are easily satisfied if the butcher washes his hands before weighing the meat.”

In each chapter, Valerio Arcary forcefully reminds us that the unchanged social correlation of forces means that the far right is not only still alive, but also has the capacity to mobilize and, tragically, influence the working class. In this respect, he is complementary to his previous work, The reactionary labyrinth (Usina, 2023). At every moment, he reminds us that it is in this hard and daily fight against this extreme right that the main task of the times in which we live lies. Which requires us to dispute the streets, the networks, the imaginary of the present and of the future.

In times of Javier Milei, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Narendra Modi, it is naive and delusional to believe that an electoral victory is enough to eradicate this threat. Therefore, the first part of the book, dedicated to the Brazilian situation, is enriched by the second, where the Brazilian situation can be understood from the perspective of the transformations and crises of global capitalism in this first quarter of a century.

Thus, even though he bases his analyses on the heat of the events, Valerio Arcary's interpretation does not run the risk of becoming dated because the author, a rigorous Marxist, is not dedicated to superficial movements, but rather attentive to structural conditions, whether in the essential categories of Marxist analysis or by resorting to the economic and social structure and formation of Brazilian society, supported by data and historical interpretation. As in his previous works, the didactic writing, without manual pretensions, allows the reader to appropriate not only the interpretation, but also the method of analysis.

Therefore, as the reader will realize, unfortunately, the analysis of the first year of the third term could be applied to the end of the second year, because essentially, as a warning, the only possibility of changing the social correlation of forces, in a counterrevolutionary international scenario, would be for the Lula government to choose to “govern in the heat of the moment”, mobilizing or provoking popular mobilization and ideologically disputing society. The option of governing “in the cold”, happy that the butcher’s hands are clean, hoping that economic deliveries will do the work of politics, results in a government that retreats more often than it advances, hostage to the moods of the financial market and the Centrão.

As an experienced and seasoned political leader, Valerio Arcary is not writing in isolation from grassroots organizations. If he writes in the heat of the moment, he also writes in the heat of the dilemmas of activists like himself. And so, when he lists possibilities for social struggle, he is not outsourcing or recommending them to others; he is putting them forward for himself and for the organizations in which he works or has influence. Therefore, he is not an irresponsible analyst and he knows that in conjunctural analyses, it is not desires or idealizations that prevail, but always the correlation of forces.

This does not make him a supporter of the politics of “what is possible”. On the contrary – and this is why the third part of the book complements the previous ones – he always has Socialism as his horizon and, as befits good leaders, without teleology or pessimism, but taking the facts of reality as a presupposition, while at the same time having the sensitivity to perceive the actions and values, such as internationalism, that are present in new movements or expressions of the left and that can be the embryonic stage of a new stage of popular struggles and organizations.

Valerio Arcary does not write to record the past, although he does, nor to leave traces for the future. His destiny is the present, to influence while there is still time for the social struggle to bring about a change in the lamentable course in which we find ourselves. His attention is focused on what society and what left will emerge if we succeed – or fail – in overcoming the legacy of the extreme right and the limits of Lulaism.

*Miguel Enrique Stedile He has a doctorate in history from UFRGS and is a member of the coordination team at the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research.

Reference


Valerio Arcary. The Bolsonarism Trap and the Limits of Lulism. New York, New York Times, 2024, 334 pages. [https://amzn.to/4hj3zfN]


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