By FLAVIO AGUIAR*
Whenever Europe prepared for war, it ended up happening, with the tragic consequences we know.
A real chill ran through Europe last week. It was widely reported that the governments of Sweden and Finland had issued manuals to their citizens on what to do in the event of a war against third parties.
The Swedish government distributed a 32-page brochure by mail. The Finnish government made available a publication online.
Although the name was not mentioned, it was clear that this was a war with Russia. Sweden does not have a land border with Russia. There is a sea border between it and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and Poland. Finland has a land border with Russia of 1.343 km.
Both messages address other crises, such as pandemics, natural disasters and terrorist attacks. But the focus of the news was on the war, thanks to the existence of a direct conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has the support of NATO, of which Sweden and Finland recently joined.
In both Sweden and Finland, the instructions involve maintaining stocks of food, water, medicine and money, keeping credit cards safe, advice on how to stay informed via radio, finding collective shelters in the event of air or nuclear attacks, how to behave in them or where to take shelter if it is impossible to reach them.
Right at the beginning of the Swedish instructions is the following patriotic exhortation: “If Sweden is attacked, we will never surrender. Any suggestion to the contrary is false.”
Additional information gradually emerged. In both cases, it was an update of previous instructions. It was also reported that other governments, such as Denmark and Norway, were issuing similar instructions. None of this mitigated the media impact of the climate of preparation for war.
To make matters worse, Germany joined the fray. The country's media reported the existence of a previously secret Army document, with a thousand pages on the possibility and consequences of a war with Russia. Among other things, the document predicts that Germany would become a huge corridor through which hundreds of thousands of NATO troops – American and others – would pass. The country would become the great logistical organizer of the flow of troops, supplies and weapons of various kinds for the conflict.
Other information has come to light. The Army is providing specific instructions to business owners on how to adapt their companies to the circumstances of a war, with a focus on the issue of transportation.
To understand the impact of this information, one must take into account the framework in which it emerged and some antecedents.
Concomitant with these, there was news of an escalation in fact or rhetoric surrounding the war in Ukraine and now also on Russian territory, with the invasion of the Kursk region by Ukrainian troops.
The presence of North Korean troops on Russian territory in support of Moscow was reported. The Joe Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian territory and to supply landmines to the Kiev government against vehicles and people. The latter announced that Russia had launched a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead against its territory.
Moscow has relaxed its rules on the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict, especially if attacked by a country that has the support of a nuclear power. France, Germany and Poland have announced that they are significantly increasing their military budgets. Other countries may follow suit. The United States has announced the reestablishment of missiles on European territory.
Russian TV has released a report discussing which European cities could be targeted by long-range missile strikes. Not long ago, Joe Biden’s government increased the presence of US military and related personnel on the European continent by 20%, a contingent that now exceeds 120, larger than, for example, the entire UK Army. German civil and military authorities have already openly stated that war with Russia is possible within five or six years. In short, Europe is preparing for the possibility of war.
Politicians who acknowledge the risk often use the popular Latin saying, “si vis pacem para bellum”, “if you want peace, prepare for war”. However, let us remember that the European curriculum in this subject is not good. Whenever Europe prepared for war, it ended up happening, with the tragic consequences that we know.
* Flavio Aguiar, journalist and writer, is a retired professor of Brazilian literature at USP. Author, among other books, of Chronicles of the World Upside Down (boitempo). [https://amzn.to/48UDikx]
Originally published in the “O Mundo Agora” section of Radio France Internationale (Brazil).
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