By FLAVIO AGUIAR*
Whenever the countries of Europe prepared for war, war happened. And this continent has given rise to the two wars that in all of human history have earned the sad title of “world wars.”
There are smoke signals on the horizon that European countries are preparing for war. What war? Against Russia.
Let's take Germany as an example.
First example: Volkswagen, a company that has been linked to the German national identity for almost a century, is going to close three of its factories due to the economic crisis that is ravaging the country and the continent. But there is a company interested in buying all three. Which one? Rheinmetall, one of the main arms producers in Germany. Why? Because its directors foresee a considerable profit margin, thanks to the announcement by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that the Union will invest 800 billion euros in arms to increase the continent's defense.
Example 2: paradoxically, the director of one of the German secret service agencies, Bruno Kahl, of the Bundesnachrichtendienst, stated, in an interview with Deutsche Welle, on 03/03/2025, the concern about the possibility of the war in Ukraine having a “quick end”. Why? According to him, because this would free Russia to threaten the rest of Europe before 2029 or 2030, that is, before the other countries on the continent are prepared to face the “enemy”. The statement, which provoked indignation in Kiev, shows that there is a strategy thought out regarding the possibility and prediction of war.
And the war industry appears to be one of the most important vectors for the economic recovery of Germany and the continent.
Germany ranks fifth among the world's largest arms exporters. According to the Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute, in ascending order, they are: Israel, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, France and Russia, almost tied, and the United States.
There are two huge discrepancies between these countries. First, from Israel to China, the percentage share of global arms exports is in the single digits, from 1 to 5%. With Russia and France, the figure jumps, to 10,5 and 10,9%, respectively, with France overtaking Russia because the latter's exports have fallen, thanks to the war with Ukraine and the allies that support it.
With the United States, the leap is even greater: its share of the world market is 40%.
Second discrepancy: in the last ten years the value of these exports has fallen in eight of the ten countries. The two major exceptions are France and the United States. In the case of the latter, the increase was 24%.
Of the 100 largest private arms companies, 41 are American and 27 are European, excluding Russia, which has only 2 companies among them.
Reversing the perspective, it can be seen that the country that imports the most weapons in the world is Ukraine, with almost 9% of the sector. And its main suppliers are the United States, Germany and Poland.
It is worth noting an interesting fact: no Latin American country is among the main exporters or importers of weapons.
Those numbers above show that, as in the past, unfortunately war or the prospect of it remains a good business to ward off the specter of economic recessions for those who produce weapons, not for those who bear their effects.
As I said at the beginning, there are smoke signals on the horizon pointing towards war. It is known that where there is smoke, there is fire. Whenever the countries of Europe prepared for war, war happened. And this continent has given rise to the two wars that in all of human history have earned the sad title of “world wars.”
* Flavio Aguiar, journalist and writer, is a retired professor of Brazilian literature at USP. Author, among other books, of Chronicles of the World Upside Down (boitempo). [https://amzn.to/48UDikx]
Originally published on Radio France International (Brazil).
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