The evolution of the situation

Whatsapp
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram
Telegram

By ARMANDO BOITO*

At the present time, conciliation seems to prevail.

Until the end of May this year, there were at least three types of analysis of the Brazilian political situation. Now, at the end of June, it would be instructive to go back to those analyzes and see how the situation evolved.

The first of them, with which I agreed, stated that the Bolsonaro government was stronger than the opposition and was taking offensive action against democracy. It had the support of the Armed Forces, which was always essential and especially in the situation of withdrawal created by the epidemic, and faced an opposition, led by the liberal conservative camp, which was hesitant and timid.

The other analysis was the one that reversed the previous analysis. He maintained that the Bolsonaro government was weakening more and more, that the opposition was growing and cornering the government thanks to the action of the STF and the TSE. They also guaranteed that the FFAA would not venture to give or lend their support to a coup d'état and that, even, the international situation would make this type of action unfeasible.

The third position merged the previous two. In my view, economist Luiz Filgueiras, in live at an event at the Federal University of Bahia, and journalist Luiz Nassif at the GGN newspaper were representative of that approach. On the one hand, Bolsonaro would be increasingly isolated. Nassif presented this idea more than once throughout the text: “The Bolsonaro government is dying. It is increasingly clear that the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is willing to stop the destruction of the country”. Further ahead, he maintains: “All signs indicate that the current generation of the Armed Forces is immune to coup adventures”. However, on the other hand and at the same time, Nassif and Filgueiras maintained that Bolsonaro reacted to the political isolation of his government by going on the offensive and threatening democracy. That is, he would be attempting a type of action for which he would not have sufficient political strength. He would have misjudged the correlation of forces and, by all indications, would have gone broke.

I think that the situation is, in its current stage, at the end of June and after the arrest of Fabrício Queiroz, indicating that we are moving towards a conciliatory solution between those at the top. And what is worse is that such a conciliatory solution managed to attract parties and leaders from the democratic camp.

On the one hand, the military group and the neo-fascist group in government are giving up, at least for the time being, their authoritarian pretensions and, on the other hand, the liberal-conservative camp is committed to guaranteeing the mandate of Jair M. Bolsonaro until 2022. PSDB's decision to bar impeachment, talks between the STF and the Executive and the movement's virtual demonstration Together on June 26 point in that direction. Of course, the worsening of the economic and health crisis could make this agreement unfeasible and that, especially, if those below join the political dispute. However, at the present time, it is conciliation that seems to prevail.

If this assessment is correct, I think that the development of the conjuncture in the last few weeks indicated that there was a balance of forces between the camp that seeks the closure of the regime and the camp that intends to prevent such closure. Let's qualify this balance of forces. First, it is a balance of forces at this moment and on this specific point: the political regime – dictatorship or democracy?

With regard to the economic, social and foreign policy of the Brazilian State, despite minor conflicts, the unity between the Bolsonaro Government and the liberal bourgeois opposition prevails. Second, as a colleague warned me, such a balance can be considered relative: the Government is stronger, but lacks the strength to move further towards the closure of the regime.

*Armando Boito is professor of political science at Unicamp. Author, among other books, of State, politics and social classes (Unesp).

 

See this link for all articles

10 MOST READ IN THE LAST 7 DAYS

______________
  • About artificial ignoranceEugenio Bucci 15/06/2024 By EUGÊNIO BUCCI: Today, ignorance is not an uninhabited house, devoid of ideas, but a building full of disjointed nonsense, a goo of heavy density that occupies every space
  • Franz Kafka, libertarian spiritFranz Kafka, libertarian spirit 13/06/2024 By MICHAEL LÖWY: Notes on the occasion of the centenary of the death of the Czech writer
  • The society of dead historyclassroom similar to the one in usp history 16/06/2024 By ANTONIO SIMPLICIO DE ALMEIDA NETO: The subject of history was inserted into a generic area called Applied Human and Social Sciences and, finally, disappeared into the curricular drain
  • Introduction to “Capital” by Karl Marxred triangular culture 02/06/2024 By ELEUTÉRIO FS PRADO: Commentary on the book by Michael Heinrich
  • Impasses and solutions for the political momentjose dirceu 12/06/2024 By JOSÉ DIRCEU: The development program must be the basis of a political commitment from the democratic front
  • The strike at federal Universities and Institutescorridor glazing 01/06/2024 By ROBERTO LEHER: The government disconnects from its effective social base by removing those who fought against Jair Bolsonaro from the political table
  • Strengthen PROIFESclassroom 54mf 15/06/2024 By GIL VICENTE REIS DE FIGUEIREDO: The attempt to cancel PROIFES and, at the same time, turn a blind eye to the errors of ANDES management is a disservice to the construction of a new representation scenario
  • A myopic logicRED MAN WALKING _ 12/06/2024 By LUIS FELIPE MIGUEL: The government does not have the political will to make education a priority, while it courts the military or highway police, who do not move a millimeter away from the Bolsonarism that they continue to support
  • Hélio Pellegrino, 100 years oldHelio Pellegrino 14/06/2024 By FERNANDA CANAVÊZ & FERNANDA PACHECO-FERREIRA: In the vast elaboration of the psychoanalyst and writer, there is still an aspect little explored: the class struggle in psychoanalysis
  • Volodymyr Zelensky's trapstar wars 15/06/2024 By HUGO DIONÍSIO: Whether Zelensky gets his glass full – the US entry into the war – or his glass half full – Europe’s entry into the war – either solution is devastating for our lives

AUTHORS

TOPICS

NEW PUBLICATIONS