The strength of the parties

Image: João Nitsche
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By LUIZ GABRIEL LIMA & MONITOR ARQUER*

The party design of city halls and perspectives for the second round

The 2020 elections are not over and we still need to wait for official data for more detailed interpretations of their results. Despite this, we have already managed to outline possible trends for the second round based on what we have available.

Over the years, the distribution of the parties' political strength has changed considerably, much of it connected to the national political context. In 2020, this pattern repeats itself. The maps below show this.

Starting in 2000, with PSDB in the Presidency of the Republic and DEM as a strong party by its side, they together conquered 2016 municipalities, approximately 36% of the total.

In 2012, a moment of intense relevance for the PT nationally and shortly after the election of Dilma Rousseff, sustained by the positive results that the party had been having among the electorate, the party, which had only 187 municipalities in 2000, reached 647 that year. However, after the impeachment of Dilma during her second term and the political crisis the party went through, with the influence of the Lava-Jato Operation, the PT shrinks and conquers only 250 city halls in 2016.

This movement is accompanied by two others. The rise of the PSB, which, alongside the PT, conquered important spaces in national politics until 2016. And the emergence of the PSD in 2008, which attracted several leaders to the party, still newly formed, and has increased its territorial insertion over the years. years.

In 2020, the PSD's performance continues to attract attention. So far, based on the preview that we had access to, the party managed to elect approximately 20% more city halls than it had in 2016. Alongside it, come other right-wing parties that, after a long period with insignificant results, return to the scenario after 2016. Today they are important players in this dispute. Among them are the DEM and the PP, which until now have elected approximately 68% and 35% more city halls than in 2016.

With the second round, next Sunday (29), it seems that this trend will be strengthened. According to opinion polls that have been carried out in the capitals, mainly Ibope and Datafolha, it is observed that right-wing parties, such as DEM, PP and Podemos, dominate the electoral race in the capitals.

In seven of the eighteen capitals in dispute, the right-wing acronyms walk towards victory, as is the case of Rio Branco (AC) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ) in which Tião Bocalom (PP) and Eduardo Paes (DEM) start ahead with more than thirty points of difference.

The PSDB and MDB, unlike 2016 when they conquered eleven capitals, are now disputing the first places in the second round in at least six of them: Boa Vista (RR), Teresina (PI), Porto Velho (RO), São Paulo (SP) , Goiânia (GO) and Porto Alegre (RS). It is worth remembering that, in this year 2020, the toucans have already won in Palmas and Natal in the first round.

On the other hand, when we analyze leftist parties, such as PT, PSB and PSOL, we see that these acronyms lead the other five remaining capitals, especially in the Northeast region. In it, these parties are ahead in four of the seven still undefined capitals: Recife, Fortaleza, Aracaju and Maceió.

Voting intention champions

Arthur Henrique (MDB), in Boa Vista, and Tião Bocalom (PP), in Rio Branco, are the candidates who scored the most in the polls for the second round so far. Both appear with more than 60% of the voting intentions. Following them is Edvaldo (PDT), who is seeking re-election in Aracaju, the aforementioned Eduardo Paes (DEM) in Rio de Janeiro and Dr. Pessoa (MDB) in Teresina, the three ahead in the polls with more than 50% of the voting intentions.

As shown in the images above, it should be noted that the second round in Recife is between two candidates on the left, João Campos from the PSB and Marília Arraes from the PT, and in Rio de Janeiro it is between two candidates on the right, Eduardo Paes (DEM) and the current mayor Marcelo Crivella (Republicans).

Election polls hit top spots

The surveys carried out in the capitals during the first round showed results very close to what we saw at the polls. The latest forecasts from Ibope hit the first positions of all capitals, with the exception of Porto Alegre (RS). In the Northeast, the institute correctly indicated the first three places in all capitals, except the third in Teresina (PI).

In addition, Datafolha surveys, carried out in five capitals, reached the first three positions, with the exception of the second and third in Belo Horizonte (MG). Ibope and DataFolha had their best performance since 2016, with an average error close to the margin declared by them.

If the surveys are correct, as everything indicates, we already know the likely scenario in which we will dawn on Monday (30). However, surprises can occur. We will closely monitor the results and forecasts made by the main institutes.

* Luiz Gabriel Lima is majoring in Social Sciences at Unicamp.

*Monize Archer She is a researcher at the Center for Public Opinion Studies (Cesop-Unicamp) and a postdoctoral fellow at the INCT/IDDC.

Originally published on 2020 Election Observatory of the Institute of Democracy and Democratization of Communication (INCT/IDDC).

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