War between USA and Russia

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By RUBEN BAUER NAVEIRA*

The war is in Ukraine, but the real conflict is between Americans and Russians

Let it be clear: Ukraine is not the center of the problem. The heart of the problem is the conflict between the United States (broadly, the West) and Russia (broadly, Russia and China). The United States defends its hegemony over the planet (unipolar world), while Russia (and China) defends its sovereignty (multipolar world).

The United States and Russia have been at war for a long time. Undeclared war, of course, because the day the US and Russia engage in direct war it will escalate to nuclear war – which Russians and Americans know would destroy them both (and the rest of the world).

The most recently round of this war has just been won by the Americans, by forcing Russia to invade Ukraine. Let us recapitulate: (1) Russia had given (in December) an ultimatum to the United States so that it not only cease NATO expansion towards Russian borders but also withdraw the troops and missile bases taken to the countries of Eastern Europe; the West responded to the Russian ultimatum by reaffirming the freedom of countries like Ukraine and Georgia to decide to join NATO as well; (2) while trumpeting an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West stepped up the shipment of cutting-edge weaponry to Ukrainians; (3) Ukraine, pressured by the West to invade the breakaway republics of Donbass, massively concentrated troops in the front with those republics and began to bombard their civilian residential areas with heavy artillery, prohibited by the Minsk agreements (which led to an evacuation of civilians from Donbass to Russian territory); (4) in the diplomatic field, offenses began to be taken without ceremony, as in the mocking reaction of the German chancellor Olaf Scholz to the Russian allegation of genocide by Ukraine of its population of ethnic Russians (hence Germany, which should be the last place in the planet to disqualify an allegation of genocide); (5) the last straw was the statement by President Zelensky of Ukraine that the country should seek to develop nuclear weapons (Ukraine having several nuclear power plants, that is, having expertise on the uranium enrichment cycle).

The objective of the Americans is the overthrow of the Russian government for the dismantling of its powerful Armed Forces and in particular its nuclear arsenal, the appropriation of its immeasurable natural resources, and the shredding of its vast territory. In this sense, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “covered” by the Western media in a defamatory manner unprecedented in scale, orchestration and virulence, came in handy as a justification for the imposition of unprecedented sanctions, which in practice correspond to a real ban of Russia from the western economic and financial world.

The Americans, aware that a direct military confrontation would be disadvantageous to them (apart from the risk of nuclear war), chose to fight in the informational (media) and economic fields. The earthquake that has already taken hold in the Russian economy is obviously aimed at destabilizing the government of Vladimir Putin, while the risk, assumed by Western countries, that sanctions lead to harmful repercussions on their own economies, as well as the of the campaign to demonize Russia, Putin and the Russian people in general, testify to how much Americans went for an “all or nothing” against the Russians.

In the informational/mediatic field, the Russians have already lost the dispute for the narrative (externally; if they also lose internally, it will be the end of them). On the economic front, they have been put at a huge disadvantage (although there is still a lot of play to do). It remains for the Russians to fight and seek to win in the field they chose because that was what they had left, the military.

Even though the Americans won the last round driving the Russians into a war they would rather have avoided (even though they prepared for it), the new round it is this war itself, with an open outcome. If the Russians achieve their objectives (capitulation of Ukraine in the short term; denazification of the country, with the capture, trial and condemnation of neo-Nazis responsible for atrocities; installation of a new government that is at least neutral, committed to demilitarization, and recognizing the Crimea as Russian territory; and return of Russian troops) they will be enormously able to once again demand from the West the withdrawal of NATO troops from the countries of Eastern Europe. However, if the war extends and becomes a quagmire for the Russians, the internal attrition will be added to the attrition due to the economic blockade, and the government will hardly be able to maintain itself. For Russians, as much as for Americans, it is now all or nothing.

The Russians declare that they have no territorial ambitions in Ukraine, but it is certain that they will no longer tolerate it as an enemy country. On the day of the invasion (24) Vladimir Putin stated that: “Let me remind you that no one asked people living in the territories of present-day Ukraine how they preferred to conceive of their lives when the Soviet Union was created, or after the Soviet Union was created. Second World War. At the basis of our actions is freedom, freedom of choice for everyone when designing their future and the future of their children. We believe that all peoples living in Ukraine today, anyone who wants to, can avail themselves of this right to exercise their free choice. In this regard I would like to address the citizens of Ukraine. In 2014, Russia was forced to defend the people of Crimea and Sevastopol from those you call “Nazis”. The people of Crimea and Sevastopol chose in favor of staying with their historic homeland, Russia. And we support them. As I said, we could not have done otherwise.”.

Of course, the scenario is changeable, but what Putin said indicates a partition of Ukraine into two countries – if Russia wins this war.

In the Western world, it will be impossible to know where the war is headed until it is a fait accompli. The news, converted into an instrument for brainwashing the masses, is useless. It is even reasonable to assume that the more exaggerated the narratives ("thousands of dead Russian soldiers"; "Ukrainian resistance paralyzes Russian advance"; "Russians attack civilian population"), then the greater the probability that exactly what is happening is happening. opposite on the battlefields. Furthermore, the one who is winning the war does not distribute weapons to any and all civilians who are willing to wield them (something doubly criminal, because it makes these civilians legitimate military targets, and because it leads cities to anomie, with an explosion of looting, assaults and murders).

The extreme virulence of the Western economic attack on Russia can only be taken as a declaration of war, which pushed relations with the West beyond the point of no return (the establishment of personal sanctions against Putin, something unprecedented - not personally sanctioning the head of a state – represents a level of offense that in practice obliges the Russians to break off diplomatic relations). If victorious in Ukraine, the Russians will be aware that the continuation of the confrontation will have to take place through new military actions.

In short, it is a war (even if not yet direct) between the United States and Russia, which admits of only one of three possible outcomes: collapse of the West, collapse of Russia (and, subsequently, China) or nuclear war ( and nothing guarantees that one of the first two will not lead to the third).

*Ruben Bauer Naveira is a political activist. Book author A new utopia for Brazil: three guides to get out of chaos [available at http://www.brasilutopia.com.br].

 

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