By MANUEL DOMINGOS NETO*
Biden's turn may favor Bolsonaro's removal
I read an article by Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr., posted on the website the earth is round, "Time to go for the jugular” and I had many doubts. Rereading the text, the doubts were confirmed. Paulo's assumptions are debatable: Bolsonaro would experience his worst moment, expressed in the difficulty of approving the budget and the weariness of Paulo Guedes; there is mistrust in the parliamentary base; Lula was reinforced as a candidate; the Covid CPI would be the impeachment anteroom; the vice would be reasonably civilized and likely to be a weak president who would rule under turmoil; he can be more easily beaten by Lula…
I relativize these assumptions or impressions. You can't easily compare Bolsonaro's worst moments; numerous times the budget has had its approval delayed; the centrão is fickle by nature; with the institutions we have, Lula's candidacy will always be threatened (as Roberto Amaral warns); the Covid CPI will stir up well-known crimes; Mourão may have better manners, but he is a reactionary with more solid convictions than Bolsonaro, a preacher of truculence and nothing guarantees that he will be a weak president. On the contrary, he might be able to articulate an array of forces powerful enough to confront Lula.
I was surprised that Paulo did not touch on the point that, I imagine, is the most disconcerting for Bolsonaro and his supporters (not just the “cattle”, but the bufunfa gang, the evangelical militancy and the military). This point is the great inflection in the guidelines of the economic policy of the United States.
If Biden's proposals pass through the US parliament (and I think there are chances of this happening), Paulo Guedes and the Brazilian militia that effectively responds to the government will lack ground. To know what will happen in Brazil today, in addition to the consequences of the pandemic and the mood of the people, it is necessary to follow the extraordinary promise of burial of neoliberalism announced by Biden.
From what I've read in the US and European newspapers, it seems that suddenly there has been an inversion, with geopolitics starting to interfere in the great financial game. Washington decided to take a stand on the dilemma: face China or cede its hegemony.
And, to face China, the first impasse is the search for internal unity torn apart by decades of neoliberalism. From what Biden says, the reduction of inequalities in the United States is finally on the agenda. Social lack of control, the loss of space in technological innovation and environmental degradation constitute today the greatest threats to the world center of capitalism. Tackling these problems will have repercussions around the world. It will mess with the minds of the Brazilian elites. It will choke false defenders of the Amazon, notably Brazilian generals. Biden's turn may favor Bolsonaro's removal.
Lula has a chance of emerging and consolidating himself as a centrist candidate. He is best qualified to negotiate concessions for the people without hurting the big ones too much. He can once again be accepted by the suffering middle class. Nobody better than Lula to cut the thread that leads to the powder keg set up by Bolsonaro and the military hierarchy. Lula will know how to rebuild Brazil's international relations.
If my impressions are correct, soon Bolsonaro will be without support in Congress. Some from Centrão are already hunting for conversation with Lula.
As for the millicada, Marcelo Godoy, in Estadão, pointed out that their activism is being curbed. Many officials are deleting their demonstrations on social media. They seem to reduce the frenetic media militancy they have gotten into in recent years. A minority will be able to go to the grave with Bolsonaro. The militia admirer will be left with the attempt to promote bloody riots, but with no future. Mourão does not know how to penetrate the hearts of the people nor is he unanimous among his peers. He will not muster the strength for a hand strike. He likes to command a lot, but he knows how to obey. He has spent his life learning to respect the High Lord of the West.
With the impeachment supervening, who knows, Mourão will go down in history as the commander of the return of the Brazilian Malvinas.
* Manuel Domingos Neto is a retired UFC/UFF professor, former president of the Brazilian Defense Studies Association (ABED) and former vice president of CNPq.
