The inflection of the North American media

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Why do US and UK government experts praise Russia's electronic warfare capabilities?

O Business Insider published an article last Sunday that quoted experts linked to the US and UK governments praising Russia's electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize the threat that Kiev's Bayraktar drones, supplied by Turkey, used to pose on the battlefield. Samuel Bennett, from Center for Naval Analyzeswith federal funding, told the news site that “as soon as the Russian armed forces got organized, they managed to shoot down many TB2”. He added that currently Kiev uses these drones mainly for reconnaissance purposes.

The core of Bennett's assessment was previously shared by Royal United Services Institute UK, which is partially funded by the governmentwhose May 19 report on Russian tactics in the second year of this conflict was also mentioned in the article by Business Insider. The text drew attention to the part that described electronic warfare as a "critical component" of Russian tactics, which, according to its experts, contributed to Ukraine's huge losses of drones in the last 15 months, since the beginning of the "special operation ”.

Casual observers may have been surprised to see experts connected with the US and UK governments praising Russia's electronic warfare capabilities in popular mainstream media, especially with regard to how they neutralized what had previously been considered one of the "wunderwaffen” [wonders] from Kiev. Those who closely follow the emerging mainstream media narrative, however, would by no means have been caught off guard, given that this development is fully in keeping with the latest trend.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, set the tone at the end of January to the warn that it would probably be impossible Ukraine to dislodge Russia this year from all the territory that Kiev claims as its own. A few weeks later, in mid-February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared that his bloc is in a “logistics race”/“war of attrition” with Russia, which implied the equality of military-industrial capacity between its only adversary and that of two and a half dozen members of this alliance.

In mid-March, the The Washington Post informed everyone about the poor performance of the Kiev forces after the Politico cited, in late April, unnamed Biden administration officials concerned about public reaction if the next NATO-backed Kiev counter-offensive, does not meet your expectations. Shortly afterwards, Polish General Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak shared some “politically incorrect” truths about the conflict that reaffirmed the two previous assessments of Ukraine's weaknesses.

The cognitive dissonance that many pro-Kiev supporters in the West began to feel as a result of their bloc's media and officials in the new Cold War de facto contradicting their perceptions of each party's power, has led some like Garry Kasparov to imagine that Russian agents infiltrated the White House. These more eccentric QAnon-type conspiracy theories could proliferate uncontrollably should the next counter-offensive fail, and thus risk radicalizing a critical mass of the population over time.

With the aim of preemptively deterring these latent threats, the West has gradually sought to recalibrate its perceptions of this conflict, as evidenced by Milley's candid admission earlier in the year and subsequent narrative developments since then, which were discussed above. The intention is to prevent the most fervent pro-Kiev supporters from becoming radicalized if their expectations of Ukraine's “final victory” do not materialize, which seems increasingly likely.

To that end, the West's strategic messages are now oriented to more accurately reflect the truth about this proxy war, which puts the latest article in the Business Insider which cited US and UK government experts praising Russia's electronic warfare capabilities. This also indirectly serves to temper expectations about the potential procurement of F-16s by Kiev, subtly preconditioning pro-Kiev supporters not to pin all their hopes on the latter"Miracle Weapon".

At the same time, traditional media such as CNN, is also preparing Iran to be the scapegoat if the Kiev counteroffensive fails, in order to distract the public from the "politically inconvenient" fact of Russia's military parity with NATO in this scenario. The combined effect of all these narrative developments is to recalibrate Western mass perceptions of this conflict closer to reality, in order to cushion the blow to their morale if all does not go as they expect by the end of this summer.

The purpose is to pre-emptively avoid the potential radicalization of the most ardent pro-Kiev supporters who, predictably, have started to invent the most eccentric QAnon-type conspiracy theories to explain away the fact that their expectations have not yet been met and may never be met. The additional motive behind this strategic change in message is also to maintain support for Joe Biden ahead of next fall's elections, in the hope that disheartened Kiev supporters will not abandon him because of this.

Foreign policy rarely enters the US presidential races, but the proxy war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine is an exception given its global interests. The deep disillusionment that some undecided pro-Kiev voters would feel in the face of the possible failure of the upcoming counter-offensive could inspire them not to participate in the elections, to vote for third parties and/or even to vote for the comparatively more pragmatic republicans, as a way to of protest, which would damage Joe Biden's re-election prospects.

The liberal-globalist Democrats in power in the US, who dominate the mainstream media, have a vested interest in Joe Biden's re-election, which is why they started changing the official narrative about this proxy war almost half a year ago, when it started to become impossible to maintain. the previous script. Since then, they have accelerated their efforts ahead of the counteroffensive after realizing that there is a credible chance this campaign will not live up to expectations, with the last article of the Business Insider representing the most recent effort in this regard.

In simple terms, the elite are now making comparatively more accurate reports about this conflict available to the public in order to manage their perceptions and reduce the risk of pro-Kiev supporters abandoning the Democrats before next fall's elections and/or becoming radicalized as result of your disillusionment. These limited outflows seen lately lend credence to claims that the counter-offensive is unlikely to live up to expectations, which suggests that ceasefire talks could take place by the end of the year or the beginning of next year.

*Andrew Korybko holds a master's degree in International Relations from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Book author Hybrid Wars – From Color Revolutions to Coups (popular expression).

Translation: Fernando Lima das Neves.

Originally published on newsletter from the author.

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