By ANDREW KORYBKO*
US withdrawal of Polish logistics facility from Rzeszow to Ukraine is meant to symbolize reduction in American military aid to Kiev
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The Pentagon announced Monday that U.S. forces will withdraw from the Polish logistics hub of Rzeszow to Ukraine and reposition elsewhere in the country, according to a previously undisclosed plan. The following day, the NBC News reported that Donald Trump could soon withdraw half of the 20.000 US troops that Joe Biden has sent to central and eastern Europe since 2022. According to his sources, most of them will be withdrawn from Poland and Romania, the two largest countries on NATO's eastern flank.
This action is intended to symbolize a reduction in military aid to Kiev, but it cannot be interpreted as the first step towards a complete withdrawal from Poland or from central and eastern Europe as a whole.
The Polish president, prime minister and defense minister were quick to say that Monday's redeployment does not amount to or portend a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Poland, but speculation remains about Donald Trump's plans given the nascent new to relax Russia-USA. Vladimir Putin requested in late 2021 that the US withdraw its forces from Central and Eastern Europe to restore Washington's compliance with the 1997 NATO-Russia Establishment Act, the numerous violations of which have exacerbated the security dilemma between Russia and the US.
Joe Biden’s refusal to discuss this issue helped make the latest phase of the decade-long process inevitable by convincing Vladimir Putin that what would soon be known as “Operation Special” was the only way to restore the increasingly lopsided strategic balance between Russia and the United States. Unlike Joe Biden, Donald Trump appears open to at least partial acceptance of Vladimir Putin’s request, which could be the first of several pragmatic mutual compromises being negotiated to normalize ties and end the proxy war.
In late February, it was assessed that “Donald Trump is unlikely to withdraw all US troops from Central Europe or abandon NATO’s Article 5”, but he will likely withdraw some of them from there to redeploy to Asia in order to contain China more forcefully, as part of his administration’s planned eastward shift.
There are currently about 10.000 US troops in Poland, up from about 4.500 before the special operation, so a portion could hypothetically be reduced, but there would still be a larger number in Poland than before 2022.
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Poland’s conservative president wants as many U.S. troops as possible, including redeploying some from Germany, while its current liberal prime minister is toying with the possibility of relying on France to balance the U.S. or leaning on it directly. The outcome of next month’s presidential election will play a key role in shaping Polish policy in this regard, and could be influenced by perceptions (correct or not) that the United States is abandoning Poland.
Any reduction in US troops in Poland, or the public’s belief that this is inevitable, could favor the pro-European liberal candidate, while an explicit confirmation of the US commitment to maintain – let alone expand – the existing level could help pro-American conservatives and populists. Even if Poland’s next president is a liberal, however, the US could still count on the country as a regional bastion of military and political influence, if the Donald Trump administration plays its cards right.
For this to happen, the US would have to keep more troops there than before 2022, even if some were withdrawn, ensure that this level remains above that of any other Central and Eastern European country, and transfer some military technologies for joint production. The first imperative would be to psychologically reassure the politically Russophobic population that it will not be abandoned; the second would be related to its regional prestige; and the third would be to keep Central and Eastern Europe within the US military-industrial ecosystem amid competition from the European Union.
This could be enough to defuse possible liberal plans to pivot toward France at the expense of U.S. influence or to maintain the predominant U.S. position in Poland, if a liberal president works with his like-minded prime minister to have France help balance the U.S. somewhat. Even if the Trump administration misses this opportunity due to a lack of vision, or if a fully liberal government in Poland seeks conflict with the U.S. for ideological reasons, the U.S. is not expected to abandon Poland entirely.
The vast majority of Polish military equipment is American, which at the very least will lead to continued supplies of spare parts and likely lay the groundwork for even more arms deals. American forces are also currently based at nearly a dozen facilities across the country, and the advisory role some of them play helps shape Poland’s outlook, strategies, and tactics as it continues its military expansion. There is therefore no reason why the US would voluntarily cede such influence over what is now NATO’s third-largest military.
Thus, the most radical scenario of a liberal-led Polish turn toward France would be limited by the impracticality of replacing American military equipment with French ones in the near future, with the most this could lead to would be the deployment of nuclear-armed Rafale fighters.
Poland could also invite some French troops into the country, including for advisory purposes, and perhaps even sign some arms deals. However, it will not ask for the withdrawal of US forces, as it wants to preserve its deterrent potential.
Considering the interplay of these interests, it can be concluded that the US withdrawal from the Polish logistics facility in Rzeszow to Ukraine is intended to symbolize the reduction of American military aid to Kiev, and not to function as the first step towards a complete withdrawal from Poland or from central and eastern Europe as a whole. While some regional reductions of US troops are possible as one of several pragmatic compromises that Trump could reach with Putin to normalize ties and end the proxy war, a full withdrawal is not expected.
*Andrew Korybko holds a master's degree in International Relations from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Book author Hybrid Wars: From Color Revolutions to Coups (popular expression). [https://amzn.to/46lAD1d]
Translation: Arthur Scavone.
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