By MARISA BITTAR*
Considerations on census data and Brazilian education.
Data recently released by the IBGE are of the utmost importance for Brazil and its future, and yet, in general, the relationship between demographic growth and education is not a topic that concerns the academic community. I have been at a Brazilian public university for 36 years and have never seen anyone interested in this data regarding the national reality.
According to the IBGE, the Brazilian population in 2022 reached 203,1 million, an increase of 6,5% compared to the previous census (2010), which represents an increase of 12,3 million people in the period. From 2010 to 2022, the annual growth rate of our population was 0,5%, the lowest since the first Brazilian Census (1872).
In the 150 years between the first census and the last, Brazil's population grew more than 20 times: a total of 193,1 million inhabitants. The greatest growth, in absolute terms, was recorded between the 1970s and 1980s, when 27,8 million people were added. However, the historical series shows that the average annual growth has been decreasing since the 1960s. "In 2022, the annual growth rate was reduced to less than half of what it was in 2010," according to the Census' technical coordinator, Luciano Duarte.
These figures, which affect all spheres of life in society, are also emblematic of the impressive silent revolution that Brazil has experienced since the 1960s, that is, urban concentration in large cities contrasts with around 44% of municipalities with up to 10 thousand inhabitants, approximately 12,7 million people. Another figure resulting from this spatial configuration is the drop in the average number of residents per household: in 2010 it was 3,31, contrasting with 2,7 in 2022. Today, families are much smaller, and large urban centers are crammed with cars.
The entry of Brazilian women into the job market, alongside the radical change that the technological revolution has been bringing about in the pattern of human relations, also explains the demographic decline that Brazil has been experiencing, which affects not only expectations, but also State policies.
Regarding expectations, the Census clearly shows that our continental country may shrink and age before solving structural problems. However, we know that a country must become richer before it ages. In our case, we are celebrating 40 years since the conquest of democracy (1985) while structural problems persist. Furthermore, the pattern of political participation that marked the struggle for democracy has changed radically.
This scenario, combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, has drastically changed university life, which, in addition to being a consequence of this new reality, has maintained congenital problems that, incredibly, have not received due attention from its constituted powers and among which evasion occupies a central place. The problem has been dragging on for years without the university itself giving it due importance.
It has become common knowledge that 50 people enroll in teacher training courses in the areas of physics, chemistry, and mathematics, but less than 10 graduate. Meanwhile, data from INEP shows that, in 2022, only 60% of teachers working in elementary and high school had adequate training, a fact that highlights the gap between the need for teachers in elementary school and the number of teachers trained annually at federal universities. The disconnect is striking. And, in 2024, the strike that lasted three months is generating even greater dropout rates.
The dark life that has been marking the academic environment contrasts with the expansion policies implemented in recent decades. Between 2005 and 2016, 422 federal high school units were established, and the current government has already announced another 100. There are around 70 federal universities. In addition, the paradox is that high school has become the level with the highest dropout rate in Brazilian education.
After the physical expansion and inclusion policies implemented by the Lula and Dilma governments, the scenario of empty classrooms and uninhabited buildings should be the center of concern for the rectors and directors of the Institutes, because, while requests for expansion were met, on the other hand, the very existence of the universities and Federal Institutes is at risk.
Fewer births, fewer young people, fewer university admissions. We will no longer be “a country of young people,” something that has always made Brazil proud. We are in transition to become something else, and in the meantime, whether due to alienation or political opportunism, demands for the creation of more federal universities and institutes continue to emerge.
*Marisa Bittar and pFull Professor of History, Philosophy and Education Policies at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar).
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