By RUBEN BAUER NAVEIRA*
Russia will retaliate against NATO's use of sophisticated missiles against its territory, and the Americans have no doubts about that
recently the site the earth is round, published my article in which I outline several possible trajectories for the (long-running) ongoing conflict between the United States and Russia.
Yesterday, Monday 25th, Ukraine (once again) attacked the Russian rearguard with American-made ATACMS missiles, hitting the Khalino military airport in the city of Kursk. Ukrainian sources say the attack was successful (a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft defense system, a high-value target, was reportedly destroyed). Russian sources say there was no significant damage. Both, however, acknowledge that the attack took place.
Not only are sophisticated systems like ATACMS operated (programmed) by American military personnel acting clandestinely in Ukraine, but the identification, selection and mapping of the spatial coordinates of possible targets are carried out using ISR (acronym for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) which can only be provided by the United States, especially from the images scanned by its omnipresent satellite network.
Also yesterday, the White House officially assumed for the first time that Ukraine is authorized to use ATACMS missiles for attacks on Russian territory, with the caveat that this authorization is valid for the time being only for the province (region) of Kursk – as if this would serve as an extenuating circumstance before the Russians.
Vladimir Putin had made it very clear in his speech on Thursday, the 21st, that if this type of attack were to occur again, military installations of the Western countries involved (in this case, the United States) would be the target of Russian retaliation.
Even if Vladimir Putin could be determined in his heart to take every insult home with him by the dawn of January 20, when he will come to an understanding with Donald Trump, Americans are not willing to give him any leeway in this regard. In my article published the day before yesterday, I estimated the chances of something like this happening at five percent. Today, however, I already think five percent is too much.
In short, World War III has begun.
Russian retaliation will come – and the Americans have no doubts about it. Thus, they are already prepared for the “post-retaliation”, that is, for military escalation against the Russians. Russia, too, is prepared for this escalation.
The problem with escalation is that it quickly escalates into nuclear war – unless, in the process, one side manages to “impose itself” on the other, demonstrating such military superiority that it forces the other side to retreat (in effect, surrender). This imposition capability is referred to in military jargon as “escalation dominance” (“mastery of escalation”). Naturally, neither the Americans nor the Russians perceive such a capacity in each other, otherwise they would not commit the folly of challenging their opponent.
However, military analysts like Andrei Martyanov argue that Russia does have the capacity to control the escalation – let's hope he's right, otherwise the conflict will culminate in nuclear war.
In my text from the day before yesterday, I based my prediction on Vladimir Putin's speech on the 21st on the fact that Russia would drop a nuclear bomb on a Ukrainian city at some point during the escalation, but would give advance warning in order to allow as many civilians as possible to flee. The aim would be to intimidate the Americans and lead them to stop the escalation, on the premise that they would fear that other nuclear bombs would exterminate American citizens, and that, from the Americans' perspective, the Ukrainians would be nothing more than disposable cannon fodder.
Even though something disruptive like this might make sense (and might have the desired effect), it wouldn't be escalation control (because the Americans are also capable of dropping nuclear bombs on cities), it would at most be an attempt to stop the escalation before things get really ugly.
Ultimately, everyone in the world (including Americans and Russians) will be left holding their breath as we follow the unfolding of events.
Regarding the timing for the Russian retaliation to yesterday's Ukrainian/American attack: I consider it unlikely that this retaliation will come immediately (like today, or tomorrow). Unlike the Americans, the Russians are more cerebral and less impulsive. What is at stake is the fate of the country (Russia), and the “dosage” of the response (neither so weak that it encourages the Americans to continue escalating, nor so strong that it forces them to go all-or-nothing) needs to be very well considered, calibrated and planned.
What if, in the end, nuclear war really does come? Will the world end? No, the world will not end. What will end for sure is this world we have been accustomed to since the day we were born. And then we will need to invent a new world, and a new way of living our lives in it. I shared my thoughts on this subject in the text “Post-Nuclear War in Brazil”, which I invite you to access.
*Ruben Bauer Naveira is a political activist and pacifist. Author of the book A New Utopia for Brazil: Three guides to get out of chaos (available at http://www.brasilutopia.com.br/).
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