By GUSTAVO MENON
Considerations on constitutional reform and the reinstallation of military bases in Ecuador
"the few cultural and political achievements are not irreversible, in this punished Ecuador"
(Agustin Cueva, Between anger and hope).
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has proposed to the Constitutional Court a change to the constitution that would repeal the ban on foreign military bases in the country, a measure that was originally implemented in 2008 during the enactment of the current Ecuadorian Constitution, which expressly prohibits in its art. 5 the installation of foreign military bases in the country.
Under the watchful eye of the United States, which maintained a military presence at the former Manta Base on the Ecuadorian coast, the project began to be discussed amid several public security crises affecting the region. Under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, Daniel Noboa stressed the need to reform the constitutional text with the aim of establishing “international cooperation” in the fight against mafias and transnational crimes.[I]
Serving a provisional mandate after the announcement of the “death cross” device by former president Guillermo Lasso, the current president is trying to start his reelection campaign for 2025. The Ecuadorian government is facing internal disputes with the vice president, Verónica Abad, who asked the National Assembly to open oversight proceedings against ministers from Daniel Noboa's own government and filed complaints accusing the current president of political gender violence.[ii][iii].
Daniel Noboa’s proposal, which still needs to go through a legislative process and be approved by the Supreme Court, could extend beyond his term. At the same time, the announcement has sparked intense debate about Ecuador’s sovereignty and the implications of allowing foreign military presence on its territory.
It is important to highlight that the decision taken in 2008 by then-President Rafael Correa, and his project called “Citizen Revolution” (2007-2017), to ban foreign military bases, represented a turning point in Ecuador’s foreign policy. This measure reflected a strong sense of independence and self-determination, in addition to rekindling discussions about regional integration. The possibility of reversing this decision raises questions about national security priorities and geopolitical alliances, especially in an international context marked by conflicts of various kinds.
In any case, on the domestic scene, Ecuador, in 2023, was on the regrettable list of countries with the highest rates of violence in Latin America. This was mainly due to conflicts between criminal factions, which inspired Daniel Noboa to adopt strategies and public policies similar to the “Nayib Bukele model”, a phenomenon that has spread across the public security agenda in several Latin American countries.
The presidential intention is in line with the successive announcements of States of Exception in Ecuador and the curfew measures implemented in several cities. According to official data, last year the country registered a rate of around 40 violent deaths per 100.000 inhabitants, a record number that places the Andean Amazonian nation as the most unsafe in all of Latin America in the current situation.
South of Guayaquil, in the coastal region of Guayas, some localities recorded a homicide rate of 114 per 100.000 inhabitants, one of the highest rates on the planet.[iv]
On the right, supporters of the reform argue that the presence of foreign military bases could strengthen Ecuador’s ability to deal with transnational threats and improve internal security. On the other hand, critics of the proposal say it is a threat to national sovereignty and fear that the initiative could lead to greater US intervention in the country’s internal affairs, especially in the Amazon region.
In a context of political fragmentation and economic disintegration, the attempt to implement a “Plan Colombia 2.0” in Ecuadorian territory raises a red flag regarding the participation and interference of extra-regional actors in intimately South American agendas.
The crisis scenario of multilateralism and regional cooperation mechanisms in South America, marked by political fragmentation and challenges in regional governance, highlights the urgency of establishing a common agenda in key areas such as development, security, defense, climate change and projects that guarantee the sovereignty and sustainable development of the nations of the subcontinent.
In this context, the implementation of the Belém Declaration, the strengthening of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) and the revitalization of debates for the reestablishment of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) are significant initial steps towards the construction of strategic policies and the promotion of South-South cooperation instruments that are aligned with the challenges of the 21st century.
Finally, it is worth noting that the debate on constitutional reform in Ecuador, and the consequent relaxation of the fifth article, will have significant implications not only for the country, but also for power dynamics and defense projects across the continent.
*Gustavo Menon is a professor of International Relations at the Catholic University of Brasília (UCB).
Notes
[I] Presidency of Ecuador. General Secretariat for Communication of the Presidency. President Noboa will present a Partial Reform Project to the Constitution to allow foreign military bases. Date: 16. Sep. 2024. Available at: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=911798664316471&set=a.247505307412480.
[ii] TRADE. Verónica Abad asks the Asamblea Nacional to investigate that of the Ministers. Available in: https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica/veronica-abad-asamblea-ministras-fiscalizacion.html.
[iii] The nation. Rupture without return: the vice-president of Ecuador denounced Noboa for political gender violence. Available in: https://www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/ruptura-sin-retorno-la-vicepresidenta-de-ecuador-denuncio-a-noboa-por-violencia-politica-de-genero-nid13082024/
[iv] TELESUR. Ecuador ends the year with the highest crime rates. Available in: https://www.telesurtv.net/news/ecuador-violencia-indices-20231231-0017.html..
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