By GILBERTO MARINGONI*
Political support or proximity is not due to personal sympathies or dogmas of faith, but to material and objective guidelines
The only way for the Venezuelan government to overcome suspicion of fraud and international isolation is to act with maximum transparency in publishing and detailing last Sunday's election results (July 28). Here, there is literally no alternative to regaining the initiative in the face of the rising reactionary tide.
The regime, which has been in power for 25 years, has faced all types of internal and external aggression throughout this time, managing to survive in adverse conditions. Under the command of Hugo Chávez, it became a reference for the left and for global democracy.
Venezuela, as it is based on the largest known oil reserves, became, a century ago, strategic for the largest economy on the planet, the USA. With such wealth underground, a country with a small domestic market and dependent on the inflow of foreign currency from the sale of a product whose international prices are highly volatile has never managed to industrialize. It strongly needs the external sector to finance its State.
Located in the north of South America, the country also occupies a strategic geopolitical position for the dominant power. For these two reasons, any internal power struggle condenses interests that go far beyond its borders.
In these presidential elections, more than in any other in the last quarter century, there was a real chance of a far-right political force linked to Washington winning. This could be due less to the qualities of this coalition and more to the deep political and economic crisis of the last decade. Its causes involve falls in the international price of a barrel, economic blockades, kidnapping of currency deposited in foreign banks, sabotage, disappearance of its main political leadership, coup attempts, invention of a puppet president like Juán Guaidó, allegations of corruption, authoritarianism and government ineptitude. In the last two years, the situation has improved a little.
Given the prevailing complexity, it is vital for the Nicolás Maduro government to regain internal and external legitimacy. In addition to being islanded, Caracas finds itself on the political defensive. With all the problems, there is not a dictatorship there, but an imperfect democracy. In other words, a democracy with defects, like all democracies in the world.
The game of pressure and challenges made election Sunday a turning point for government and opposition. With research institutes of low credibility – there were polls for all tastes – and previous accusations that Chavismo would try to defraud the popular will, the international media worked with the following prophecy: if the opposition had won, the game would have been clean; If officialdom prevailed, the robbery would be completed.
If the vote took place in a calm atmosphere, the moment after the polls appears chaotic. The announcement of Nicolás Maduro's victory, shortly after midnight on Sunday, with around 80% of the votes counted, went against the local custom of only announcing final results. The argument used was that the proportion at that time (51,2% to 43,2%) would be irreversible. The reason: there would have been an attack hacker in the electoral system, “at the behest of opposition leaders”, according to Tarek William Saab, Attorney General of the Republic. So far nothing has been proven.
The opposition immediately protested loudly, followed by the global far right and their allies. The main requirement is the publication of voting minutes, with results zone by zone, section by section and table by table. In Brazil, availability is made almost immediately after the results are released.
From then on, the electoral authority took a risky decision. On Monday afternoon (29), the CNE decided to diploma Nicolás Maduro, proclaiming him the winner, without consolidating the final results. Until the afternoon of the following day, the information had not been published. This is the core of the far right's argument to contest the fairness of the election. (To compare, here Lula was elected on October 30, 2022 and his diploma only took place on December 13, well after the votes had been consolidated).
Distrust spread throughout the world. Some countries immediately recognized the new presidential term. The allies are China, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Cuba, Bolivia, among others. Those led by conservative forces of various stripes immediately rejected the results, some rudely, such as the governments of Argentina and Chile. In an intermediate group are Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, the three largest economies on the continent, led by center-left coalitions. These call for the publication of voting sheets.
The USA, scalded by wear and tear, such as explicit support for the 2002 coup and support for Juán Guaidó, took a measured position, but leaving room for doubt. The UN does not recognize the result. The OAS, which became an agent of the 2019 Bolivian coup by accusing Evo Morales of having committed electoral fraud that has never been proven, repeated the slogan. Also without any evidence.
The requirement for the immediate display of minutes could never be made in Brazil. According to the TSE website here, the rules for the 2024 elections state that: “Up to three days after each round, the reports [“Totalization Result”] must be published on the TREs’ websites”. Three days!
As if the risky diplomacy initiative was not enough, Nicolás Maduro expelled ambassadors from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, Dominican Republic and Uruguay, countries that contested the results. The gesture precedes a possible break in relations. Furthermore, it further isolates Venezuela and makes any articulation in its favor by Mercosur or Celalc unfeasible.
Political support or proximity is not due to personal sympathies, dogmas of faith or any subjective characteristic. They happen based on material and objective guidelines. Let us remember the maxim of Talleyrand (1754-1838), influential French chancellor on four occasions: “Nations have no friends; have interests.”
Nicolás Maduro will only regain internal and external legitimacy if he acts with maximum clarity and transparency. He may have to take two steps back if he wants to take one step forward. The defensive faced by the continental left will not be broken through speeches and eloquent declarations. The immediate release of electoral records is the main tool to put the right and fascism on the defensive and make Venezuela's democratic path uncontested.
Finally, the Venezuelan leader presents an essential characteristic in politics: he invests in popular mobilization. Ultimately, this is the factor to sustain a government.
*Gilberto Maringoni is a journalist and professor of International Relations at the Federal University of ABC (UFABC).
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