The polls, now with Lula

Image: Anderson Antonangelo


Lula brought hope to large portions of Brazilians and the world that another path is possible for Brazil

In recent days, opinion polls have come out evaluating the government's performance at this time of intensifying health and social crisis and the electorate's preference for presidential candidates based on the new fact of Lula's return to the political-electoral game.

Lula, in fact, entered the political scene like a meteor. In addition to the interview he gave on Wednesday, dialoguing with workers and the poor population and waving to the middle sector and political center parties, preaching unity against the genocide sponsored by Bolsonaro, he began to act to intermediate the purchase of Sputinik vaccines by governors with the Sovereign Fund of Russia and yesterday in an interview on CNN international, he charged rich countries with their responsibility in distributing vaccines to all affected countries and also charged Joe Biden to lead the process of democratizing access to vaccines for Brazil and other countries.

Lula brought hope to large portions of Brazilians and the world that another path is possible for Brazil to get out of the quagmire caused by the 2016 coup.

Bolsonaro, as expected, rose in the negative assessment and fell in the positive assessment of Brazilians, at the most terrible moment of the Pandemic that claimed the lives of 280 Brazilians (20% of the total number of deaths in the world). This fact was recorded by the DataFolha poll published yesterday and today: 44% consider their government bad/terrible and 22% consider it good/great. His management is evaluated as regular by 24%. For 56%, Bolsonaro is incapable of leading the country (in January it was 50%). For 42% he is rated as capable (was 46%). For 54%, the government's handling of the pandemic is bad/terrible.

As for the polls to find out what Brazilians would prefer for president if the election were held today, the novelty is Lula's shot, Bolsonaro's maintenance in the 30% range and the poor performance of other centrist competitors, such as Moro, Dória and Cyrus and his high rejections.

The question that many ask is how does he maintain these approval ratings considering his dark management in relation to the Pandemic and the deterioration of the social and economic situation of Brazilians?

Bolsonaro has an average of 30% approval and does everything to maintain this percentage: he delivered the economic policy to the market with increases in food and fuel – and now the rise in interest rates – he supports expansionist agribusiness, gave tax exemptions to pastors, decreed liberation arms and ammunition to serve the militias, distributed positions and privileges to members of the Army, in addition, of course, to maintaining a still active and potent network of fake news against its opponents, processed by cabinets and robots to feed its followers. This is his strategy, in addition to his always aggressive and intimidating rhetoric, even more so now that he is more vehemently accused of being genocidal.

It makes no difference to him how the pandemic is going and its thousands of daily deaths. If something sounds different he changes the minister, but each one that enters worsens the number of deaths and infected.

He's a genocidal psychopath who's always been that way. The worst thing about this is that Brazilian society has very passively accepted the going to the slaughterhouse of its family members, friends and itself.

Meanwhile, Lula starts to grow in the polls. The one between Forum magazine and Offerwise reveals that Lula practically doubled his intentions for votes in the first round since the last edition, in November (link below). In a likely 2nd round, Bolsonaro would beat Bolsonaro by 38% x 33,8%. In the 1st round and in a stimulated way (the researcher presents the names to the interviewee), Lula spikes 31,2% and Bolsonaro 30,7%. In this scenario Ciro would have 7,4% and Dória 6,4%, while 24,3% point out that none. In another scenario with more names, Bozo would have 29,2%, Lula 27,1%, Moro 7,8%, Ciro 6,2%, Dória 4,5%, Amoedo 1,8%, Boulos 1,5 % and Flávio Dino with 0,2%.

In much the same way, the DataPoder/Band poll showed the following numbers yesterday: in a likely 2nd round, Lula beats Bolsonaro by 41% to 37%. In the first round Lula would win with 34% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 30%, Moro with 6%, Ciro with 5%, Amoedo with 3%, Mandetta with 2%, whites/nulls 10% and 3% do not know. In this research, attention is drawn to the rejection rates of likely candidates. Lula has the best performance with 40%. His opponents have the following indexes: Dória 65%, Moro 60%, Ciro 56-%, Huck 54% and Bolsonaro 53%.

Attention is drawn to the melting of candidates from the so-called center or right, with Lula's entry into the circuit, such as Dória, champion of rejection, Moro, Ciro and Luciano Huck.

Everything indicates that those who did not vote or voted no have migrated to the anti-Bolsonarist side, due to the rejection rates of the fight against the pandemic. According to the DataFolha survey, 54% of Brazilians reject the government's conduct in the Pandemic. Bolsonaro is pointed out by 43% as the main culprit for the tragedy. On impechament, there is still no defined majority (50% are against and 46% in favor).

Lula is the only political leader who has managed to shake up opposition structures and make Bolsonaro lose his way. His interview on CNN International reverberates around the world. In last week's speech and press conference after winning his innocence and having his sentences annulled by the STF, he mercilessly beat Bolsonaro and his mismanagement, presenting a set of proposals to face the current crisis in defense of the working people and our country, making it clear that he is the one with the best conditions to put an end to the reign of neo-fascists and neoliberals.

But only Lula is no use. Northeast governors took a big step in purchasing the Sputnik vaccine. But few mayors decree the lockdown or have any reinforcement of emergency aid. Only the policy of creating beds is no use, it only strengthens the virus. Without vaccines, without emergency aid and without support for commerce and services to remain closed, the fight against the virus is innocuous.

Bolsonaro opposition movements have to persist in the fight for vaccines now and in mass, emergency aid of at least 600 reais and support for small and medium-sized entrepreneurs to secure their accounts and help maintain jobs. And they need to continue fighting fake news and denouncing Bolsonaro's threats and criminal actions, which tend to become more violent and threatening as he always does when cornered. Raising awareness is everyone's task. We still live in a state of exception and the Democratic State of Law needs to be rescued.

Fora Bolsonaro's fight is difficult, but more necessary than ever! “Life requires courage!” reminds us of the poet!

* Simon Peter he was state deputy (2003-2015) and municipal secretary of services in the government of Fernando Haddad.



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