By FLAVIO AGUIAR*
There is a burning smell in the Berlin air. And there is no Wald (forest) on fire, despite the summer heat. The burning smell actually comes from the Federal Government headquarters
“La plus belle des ruses du diable\ est de vous convaincre qu'il n'existe pas” [The most fantastic of the devil's tricks\ is to convince you that he does not exist]
(Charles Baudelaire).
Preamble
There is a burning smell in the Berlin air. And there are none Forest (forest) on fire here, despite the summer heat. The burning smell actually comes from the headquarters of the Federal government, known as the Chancellery Palace and its surroundings.
The political system in West Germany was set up, after the hecatomb of Nazism and the Second World War, so that, in principle, no party could dominate the government in isolation. The rule is that the party with the most or best votes in the federal election is called by the president (elected indirectly by a complex electoral college) to form a coalition government. More and better voted: the direct electoral system in Germany is complicated. In the case of the federal election, it defines the composition of the Chamber of Deputies, the Reichstag.
Each voter is entitled to two votes: one nominal, for one of the candidates in their district; and another in the party of your preference. These votes are not necessarily bound. Voters can choose a party's candidate and give their party vote to another party.
Each party draws up a list of candidates. The final result is formed by the results of the elections in each district, plus the candidates elected by party vote, in the order of the list that each party prepared. The executive branch, headed by the chancellor, is voted on in the Reichstag, depending on the coalition that has the majority.
When the Germans were reunified, which was actually an annexation of the East by the West, it was this system that prevailed nationally, and was also the basis for state and municipal elections. Most of the time, the government coalition involves two parties. But it is not uncommon for her to have three, as in the present.
The chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is the leader of the party that elected the most deputies in the last election, the Social Democrats (SPD, in its German acronym). He formed a coalition with the Green Party and the FDP (Free Democratic Party), liberal.
Tradition had it that unionized workers voted for the SPD; in the Greens, alternative and pacifist young people; in the FDP, self-employed professionals and others who do not like paying taxes. Further to the right, in the Christian Democratic Union — CDU (in the case of Bavaria, the Christian Social Union — CSU) — entrepreneurs from big or medium business and the conservative middle class voted.
Nowadays these lines have crossed and become entangled. The SPD has largely converted to neoliberalism. The Green leadership abandoned pacifism and became a belligerent, olive-green, mainly anti-Russian party. During the reign of Chancellor Angela Merkel, which lasted sixteen years and three different coalitions, the CDU literally “swallowed” the social flags of the SPD and the ecological flags of the Greens. And new parties emerged.
On the left was born Die Linke (The Left), of a dissent from the SPD combined with politicians from the former East Germany who did not belong to the Communist Party. More recently a wing of the Lefties split, led by deputy Sarah Wagenknecht, who formed a party named after her, the BSW. And on the right appeared the alternative for Germany, the far-right AfD, whose deep roots often exude a musty, Nazi-like odor.
Alongside these, which are the main ones, there is a huge series of small parties, some with regional reach, including the infamous NPD (National Democratic Party of Germany), today renamed as Homeland (A Pátria or A Terra Natal), this one is clearly neo-Nazi.
And over everyone hovers a corporate media that is more plural than the Brazilian one, but whose commentators, for the most part, pray for a fiscal austerity primer with neoliberal roots and who label everything that deviates from this as “populist”, whether on the right or the left. left.
The smell of burning
Well, after this long preamble, let's get to the main theme of these long lines: the federal government smells like it's burning.
Deep and distant reasons, but difficult to recognize by the media barrage: neoliberal hegemony, which subjected the SPD and the Greens, fiscal austerity plans, the 2008 crisis that disorganized those party loyalties described above. A close reason, also difficult to recognize, due to the same media barrage: the war in Ukraine, which threw the country into an upward inflationary spiral and a downward recessive slope.
Frame: the collapse of the communist regime in East Germany.
Neoliberal hegemony
Neoliberal hegemony generated fiscal austerity plans and made working conditions precarious, especially for young people. It also reduced pensions, making the living conditions of the elderly more precarious. But all this could be faced, in a world of inflation close to zero, a feat that was presented as a virtuous result of this somewhat radicalized and triumphant capitalism. Germany sailed in a sea of relative tranquility, in the comfortable position of flagship of the European economy, driven by the low cost of gas imported from Russia. Much of the continental economy revolved around exports from and imports by industrialized Germany.
A certain discomfort
Despite the feeling of solidity in the German position, the uneasiness caused by the differences in living conditions between the states of the former West Germany, which were more prosperous, and those of the former East Germany, where unemployment, especially among young people, was already raging between the lines. , was bigger. It was in this context that the far-right party was founded in 2013 alternative for Germany, which began to grow in voting intentions, especially in the former East Germany, increasingly attracting young voters. But the building, as a whole, seemed to remain solid and with firm foundations.
The bumps and the crack
There were two bumps along the way, but they did not affect the apparent tranquility of the navigation: the financial crisis of 2007/2008 and the Brexit, in 2016, the first major shock to the European Union's solid image.
The crack really came with the war in Ukraine. Imports of Russian gas became scarce and soon dried up; The origin of agricultural inputs, which were imported from Ukraine, diversified. As a result, like energy, they became more expensive. The pipelines bringing Russian gas to the German coast were sabotaged, and investigations into what happened were also sabotaged.
The inflationary spiral set in, reaching double digits on average (10 – 11% annually), but galloping freely in the cost of energy (40%) and food (20%). Rental prices skyrocketed. From one moment to the next, everything became more expensive.
The AfD grows and the government collapses
The harsh, simplistic and xenophobic discourse of the far right (AfD) gained strength and support. This party grew, reached Parliament (Reichstag), began to guide part of national policy, investing against immigrants and refugees. The government's popularity was declining. The SPD and the Greens were losing voting intentions; the FDP remained more stable, but its percentage is relatively low. The CDU/CSU jumped to first place in voting intentions and the AfD advanced to second place. The debacle just started during the election for the European Parliament, on June 6th. The governing coalition parties collapsed.
The result was eloquent. The traditional right (CDU/CSU) elected 29 deputies, with 30,02% of the votes. In second place came the AfD, with 15 deputies and 15,89% of the votes. The SPD and the Greens came in humiliating third and fourth place, respectively with 14 and 12 deputies, 13,94% and 11,9% of the votes. The FDP came in sixth place (5 deputies and 5,18% of the votes), coming in behind the recently founded BSW, by deputy Sarah Wagenknecht, which, leaving 0, elected 6 deputies and had 6,17% of the votes, taken mainly ds Linke, the SPD, the Greens and a little bit also from the AfD.
The CDU/CSU maintained the number of deputies it had in the previous legislation, as did the FDP. The SPD and the Greens have shrunk their representation; the AfD increased it.
The failure of the German government in this vote was only paralleled by the sinking of the French.
The hidden link
In the German political atmosphere it is difficult to see a link between this failure of the government and the war in Ukraine, but it exists. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, was very reluctant to involve Germany in the conflict, through financial and military support for the Kiev government. He ended up giving in step by step to the enormous pressure that was placed on him, the beginning of which was the sending of Leopard 2 tanks, manufactured in Germany, to the Ukrainian government.
The last culmination of this involvement was the authorization for German weapons provided to Kiev to be used to reach Russian territory. Along this path, the chancellor became an ardent supporter of war.
There was great international pressure, from the United States, the United Kingdom, NATO and the leadership of the European Union. The pressure on the German media was also enormous, starting with the fact that it was initially decreed not only that the Ukrainian government had to win the war, but that it was winning it, against all the evidence that arrived, little by little. , from the battlefield.
A climate of Russophobic Manichaeism was established that left no room for any alternative. At the same time, a kind of messianism grew, pointing to war and victory as the only possible path, condemning any alternative negotiation. In the war, barbarism was entirely on the Russian side; the virtú, on the Ukrainian side. The neo-Nazi traits of the Ukrainian armed forces were buried under the carpet, transforming them into heroic defenders of democracy and Western civilization.
Last but not least, the internal pressures of the government itself must be highlighted. In this particular case, the main force of pressure was on the Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, from the SPD himself, on members of the Greens, in particular on Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and above all on the champion of warmongering, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock, transfigured in a kind of Wagnerian Valkyrie.
German unpreparedness and military recovery
The fact is that Germany was not prepared to get involved in the war as it did, even indirectly. Cutting off Russian supplies and then increasing the price of gas imported from other sources led many German industries to retrench, collapse, or leave the country. Unemployment and lack of prospects have grown among younger people, who are increasingly giving in to the temptation of the AfD.
At the moment, German industry is experiencing a recovery, mainly thanks to its conversion to military production. This is growing across Europe, with the parallel militarization of hearts and minds. In many areas of government administration and conversation circles, there is open talk about the possibility, perhaps the inevitability, of war with Russia.
Worse: this possibility and perhaps inevitability are often welcome. On all sides there is a naturalization of war, lulled by the siren call that geopolitics today is that of a confrontation between the civilizing and virtuous democracies of the West and the barbarity of alien dictatorships and autocracies, Russia and behind it, China . Countries as diverse as Iran, North Korea and Venezuela are lined up on this bench of enemies of democracy and civilization.
Criticizing NATO and the United States has become anathema. I even heard the comment that we, Latin Americans, made the “mistake” of considering the United States an imperialist country. Washington became a fountain of virtues: in a radio commentary a university history professor exempted the United States from any responsibility for the coup in Chile in 1973.
To thicken this already thick broth, it is also impossible to openly criticize the warlike and criminal policy of Benjamin Netanyahu's government towards the Palestinian people. Defending the rights of the Palestinian people has become synonymous with defending terrorism.
The profile of Vladimir Putin and the old devil
To conclude, I mention two important aspects.
The first is that Vladimir Putin's profile does not help the cause of peace. Even if NATO had in fact provoked Russia, the invasion of Ukraine contradicts the UN Charter, and it was vehemently condemned in the General Assembly, both by the votes against it and by the numerous abstentions and absences of some of Moscow's traditional allies.
Former head of the Soviet KGB, Vladimir Putin is not a democrat, a libertarian or a leftist. But he cannot be singled out as the only person responsible for the conflict and its prolongation. Both NATO and Kiev bet on war. There are serious indications that the peace negotiations that began between Kiev and Moscow, in March 2022, were sabotaged and buried due to pressure from the West.
Within this framework, the worst tragedy that is happening is the handover, in practice, of the flag of peace in Europe and elsewhere, which has always been from the left, into the hands of the extreme right. If it comes to power, it will find a continent where the militarist spirit is reviving, well fed by its industry and the supply of North American weapons, including nuclear ones. The Prussian spirit was resurrected in Germany, if it had ever died.
The second aspect is symbolic. When the Second World War ended, the Americans gathered up the rubble of West Berlin and placed it on the remains of the Technical and Military School designed during the Nazi regime, whose construction was not completed, covering everything with earth and sand. It is the only hill worthy of the name in all of Berlin, otherwise a flat city and inviting for peaceful bicycles.
The hill was named Teufelsberg, Devil's Hill, thanks to the similar name of a nearby lake. I'm sure that in some attic or basement of that aborted and buried embryo of the Technical and Military School, which was part of the construction plans for the monumental Germania, the projected capital of the Third Reich, designed to be thousands of years old, some old devil is wearing his uniform and smiling sneakily.
* Flavio Aguiar, journalist and writer, is a retired professor of Brazilian literature at USP. Author, among other books, of Chronicles of the World Upside Down (boitempo). [https://amzn.to/48UDikx]
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