By LISZT VIEIRA*
Analyzes of a country's political crises that focus only on internal or external aspects, however brilliant they may be, will always be partial
“A specter haunts the world, and this time it is not communism, but a new right that is advancing in Europe, the USA and Latin America”
(Enzo Traverso).
1.
To analyze any political conflict in any country – as is the case now in Venezuela – an endogenous analysis of the electoral situation and the correlation of internal forces in the country is not enough. It is necessary to take into account the exogenous factor, international pressure, which today is even stronger than before.
Analyzing a country's political crisis while ignoring the external factors that influence the internal political situation is a mistake that has been made by many who denounce the fraud in the Venezuelan election, considered by them to be a dictatorship.
Scholars of democracy and its decline always emphasize that authoritarian governments, whether dictatorships or not, put an end to the checks and balances essential to a democracy. And they warn: democracy currently does not end with a violent rupture of a military coup, or a revolution. Authoritarianism is established with the slow and constant weakening of institutions, such as the judiciary and the press, and the gradual destruction of traditional political norms.
But this traditional view of democracy's decline is also in decline. Traditional institutions, such as the judiciary and the press, often support the weakening of democracy and the establishment of dictatorship. These institutions are not suspended in the air, outside and above the class struggle. In Brazil, for example, the Judiciary condemned Lula without evidence, with the support of the press, to prevent his candidacy for president in 2018. And part of the Judiciary and the press showed sympathy for the military coup that Jair Bolsonaro tried to organize and ended up failing.
The various writers and political scientists who discuss the decline of democracy in the world do not always question the basic assumptions of democracy: the search for the common good, social justice, equality, the free and conscious vote of the citizen, subject of rights, who chooses – free from pressure – who represents your interests.
2.
In a mass society, the manipulation of votes by the media, social networks, the internet, and the use and abuse of fake news who compete and often prevail over reality in winning the vote. This leads a large number of voters to vote against their own interests. It's even worse in places like Rio de Janeiro and Baixada Fluminense, where half of the cities are controlled by militias that impose their candidates under the threat of death.
In reality, democratic regimes, dominated by a political and economic elite, were generally unable to meet the needs of the majority of the population who became easy prey to fake news and religious discourse, mainly evangelical. Our civilization, a tribute to the Enlightenment, is in crisis. Many people no longer want to know the facts of reality. Want to hear speech that coincides with your beliefs. Today, doctrinal dogmas rival and sometimes surpass scientific principles.
In the second half of 2024, there are those who advocate the end of democracy in Brazil – and beyond – with Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election next November in the USA. In his article on GGN newspaper, Luis Nassif reminded journalist Pedro Costa Júnior, according to whom “Brazil now depends directly on the results of the United States elections. A victory for Donald Trump will seal the fate of Brazilian democracy. For this reason, the movement against Alexandre de Moraes is just the first step in this conspiracy. And the same media groups, which acted decisively for the rise of Jair Bolsonaro, repeat the same movement”.
Classic fascism destroyed democracy from the outside in. Neofascism uses democracy, plays democracy's game to win the election and destroy democracy from within. This is exactly what Jair Bolsonaro tried in Brazil. He just couldn't do it because Joe Biden's government pressured him against it, sending senior diplomats to Brazil several times to say he trusted the electoral system and give a message to the military: No coup! Joe Biden was not interested in a dictator allied with Donald Trump. Had it not been for that, perhaps the military coup would have prospered. He had the support of several generals – Villas Boas, Braga Netto, Pazuello, etc. – and many colonels and other officers, mainly from the Navy.
Even with Donald Trump's defeat, the belligerent US foreign policy is unlikely to change much. It is true that a Kamala Harris government will not strengthen the global far-right movement, and will have important differences in domestic politics. But when it comes to whether or not to go to war, the US president, whoever he is, doesn't say much. This is a decision of the military-industrial complex.
3.
There is an important element to be considered when we talk about neo-fascist authoritarian regimes. It is not just about restrictions on individual and political freedom, censorship of the press and culture, repression of parties, popular organizations and social movements. Neofascism is negative when it comes to climate change and its disastrous consequences.
Around the world, the principles of sustainable development, to use a euphemism, are not always observed – economic development with environmental protection, cultural diversity and drastic reduction of social inequality. The climate crisis threatens humanity's possibility of survival on the planet. But the major economic interests linked to fossil fuels – oil, gas, coal – continue to predominate over the energy transition, which will end up being adopted after major disasters and climate catastrophes leading to the death and impoverishment of a large part of the world's population.
Another important point to be considered is the fact that neofascism feeds on the crisis of neoliberalism and its dogmas of a minimal State, privatization of public services, transformation of rights into merchandise. Neoliberalism has entered into crisis throughout the capitalist world. The crisis is smaller in countries that have not given up public investment by the State, as is the case in the USA itself, where the government invests mainly in infrastructure and technology.
But it has already become evident that neoliberalism is beginning to say goodbye to liberal democracy in favor of authoritarian governments of a neo-fascist nature, taking with it liberal institutions that, as often happens, support dictatorships when their economic interests are threatened.
We are at the dawn of a new historical period in which US unilateral hegemony is losing strength in favor of multilateralism, especially with the economic rise of China. As happened in the past, this transition will not happen without wars. There are already those who talk about a new world war that is being encouraged by some governments, such as the USA provoking Russia with the siege of NATO – which led Moscow to invade Ukraine claiming its own defense – and Israel, provoking war in the Middle East.
This international backdrop cannot be ignored when we analyze a country's political crisis, no matter how complex the situation. In the case of Venezuela, oil has been neglected in the discussion about the legitimacy crisis and electoral fraud. After all, the US goes so far to seek oil, in Saudi Arabia, considered the bloodiest dictatorship in the world, but often ignored or even treated by the press as a democracy. If the Venezuelan military, neighbors of the USA, decided to leave all the oil in the hands of American companies, the media would immediately say that Venezuela is an example of democracy.
Thus, analyzes of a country's political crises that focus only on internal or external aspects, however brilliant they may be, will always be partial. After all, as Marx, a reader of Hegel, recognized, the truth is in totality.
*Liszt scallop is a retired professor of sociology at PUC-Rio. He was a deputy (PT-RJ) and coordinator of the Global Forum of the Rio 92 Conference. Author, among other books, of Democracy reactsGaramond). [https://amzn.to/3sQ7Qn3]
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