By FREI BETTO*
Only a cultural, ideological offensive will be able to disseminate among the Brazilian population a new progressive consensus like the one that elected Dilma Rousseff twice and Lula three times.
My first impulse was to title this text “Challenges to the Left.” I soon realized that, today, there is little left of what I consider the left – that which strives to overcome the capitalist system.
I adopt “progressive forces” because the expression includes anti-Bolsonaro supporters, supporters of the current Lula government, those who strive to maintain and expand formal democracy, despite its paradox of socializing the political sphere (universal suffrage) and privatizing the economic one, excluding the majority of the Brazilian population from dignified living conditions (housing, health, education, culture, job opportunities, which results in a significant reduction in unemployment, etc.).
I will now address the challenges that I consider to be priorities: communication in government, the ideological battle, the phenomenon of entrepreneurship and the religious factor.
Government communication
Although there have been great achievements in just two years of Lula's government, after four years of dismantling promoted by Jair Bolsonaro's government, few know that, in 2023, the Brazilian economy grew 2,9% (reaching R$10,9 trillion), and in 2024, 3,5%; workers' income increased 12% and consequently also family consumption; the Bolsa Família program now serves 21,1 million families (1 million more than in 2022); recovery of the minimum wage above inflation (although the fiscal adjustment limited real growth to 2,5%. in 2025 it should have been R$1.528 and is now R$1.518); restructuring of IBAMA and FUNAI; the new Pé de Meia program (which benefits 3,9 million high school students); the installation of more than 100 units of Federal Institutes; the Mais Médicos program, which serves more vulnerable populations, currently has almost 25 doctors hired by the federal government; and Brazil's leading role on the international stage (Brics, G20, COP 30, etc.). There would be much more to highlight.
Despite so many advances, the government fails to communicate. So far, it has not been able to create a digital trench capable of overcoming the influence of the far right on social media. Research indicates that 76% of Brazilians get their information from digital networks and news sites.
The digital war requires a significant number of professionals dedicated to digital communication, with the possibility of forming great influencers. The electoral phenomenon Pablo Marçal, who did not even have a minute of advertising on TV, should serve as a warning about the importance of this offensive.
The ideological battle
Another factor that I consider important so that progressive forces are not defeated by neo-fascists in the 2026 presidential election is the ideological battle.
It is worth remembering that the end of the military dictatorship in 1985 was not the result of its inherent contradictions. What weighed most heavily were ideological wear and tear due to frequent reports of human rights violations, the testimony of former political prisoners and relatives of the dead and disappeared, international pressure for the redemocratization of Brazil, and large popular mobilizations such as the Passeata dos Cem Mil, the workers' strikes in the ABC region of São Paulo, and the demonstrations for Diretas Já!
Today, the left finds itself without ideological references. They were multiplying before the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989). Socialist countries served as parameters for libertarian utopias. The study of Marxism and its application in the analysis of reality were in force. There was a fierce militancy that volunteered in electoral campaigns. The extreme right felt cornered and the polarization of the left occurred with social democracy.
That's over. Times are different. And dark. The right wing is on the rise in the world's electoral rankings. Its greatest figure, Donald Trump, occupies the most powerful position on the planet. The right wing has begun to intensely (mis)educate the people politically, while progressive forces have let Paulo Freire slumber on the shelves.
Progressive forces have lost the ability to promote large popular mobilizations due to the lack of political education among the people, the excessive bureaucratization of progressive parties, the loss of historical references and the weakening of the trade union movement.
Entrepreneurship
The phenomenon of entrepreneurship is not new. What is new is that it has become a fad for the working classes. Several factors contribute to this: setbacks and loss of labor rights, precariousness of labor relations, disarticulation of union structures, supremacy of financialization over production, fraying of social relations caused by digital networks, etc.
Neoliberalism, in its digital age, undermines corporate relations. The uberization of working conditions and the internet influencer syndrome, as well as the monetization of networks, create the illusion that everyone can rise socially without much effort. All you have to do is dare to be your own boss. It is the new version of self-made man.
In the past, the elite consisted of the nobility. As noble titles were replaced by stock market titles, the blue blood gave way to millionaires who reached the top of the social pyramid thanks to entrepreneurship.
Added to this is the depoliticization of society, which has worsened since the fall of the Berlin Wall. How can we talk about a post-capitalist society if real socialism has failed? How can we instill critical consciousness in the new generations if Marxism is no longer in vogue? How can we broaden the social and electoral spectrum of progressive forces if they have abandoned grassroots work?
These are challenges that still have no answers. And the lack of answers accelerates the rise of the right. It causes surprising events to be repeated, such as Lula's victory over Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections, by just over 2 million votes, out of a universe of 156 million voters. Or Trump's reelection in 2024, victorious in the electoral college and the popular vote.
Today, voters, devoid of class consciousness, corporate relations (such as unions) and immune to the impacts of the mainstream media thanks to their digital bubbles, seek to elect those who can guarantee them a place in the sun on the beach of opportunities. In the absence of revolutionary references (Vietnam, Sierra Maestra, figures such as Mao Zedong and Fidel), they vote thinking first of all about individual prosperity, not collective prosperity.
Poor voters show their dissatisfaction by supporting those who fly the flag of “anti-politics.” Disappointed with traditional politicians, they prefer upstarts, messianic politicians, those who dare to go against the profile of political institutions and who glamorize themselves through histrionics.
It is worth noting that those who are sociologically poor no longer consider themselves poor. For them, poor are those who live on the streets. One episode clearly demonstrates what I am saying: during the 2024 election campaign for mayor of São Paulo, a leader of the MTST visited an urban invasion. It was not an occupation. A private plot of land had been invaded by countless people induced by a smart guy who charged for each space where precarious shacks were built.
In a conversation with one of the invaders, the leader of the social movement asked him how he felt in that situation of poverty. The citizen, a street vendor, responded: “I’m not poor. I have a plot of land, a house and I paid for this space.” A space that, without a doubt, after the election period, the owner of the area will request repossession and everyone will be expelled from there by the Military Police.
The religious factor
Another important factor that explains how the left lost its mystique and the right “came out of the closet” is the inversion of religious motivation. Between the 1970s and 1990s, the main network of popular organization and mobilization in Brazil were the CEBs (Base Ecclesiastical Communities) and popular pastorals, inspired by Liberation Theology.
This was dismantled during the 34 years (1978-2013) of conservative pontificates of John Paul II and Benedict XVI. It coincided with the astonishing growth of evangelical churches, the majority of whose members have a salvationist reading of the Bible (customs agenda) and not a libertarian one, as was the case with the Ecclesial Base Communities.
The Catholic Church, which had made a “choice for the poor,” saw the poor opt for evangelical churches, where they find shelter and social support, which is absent in most Catholic parishes. Added to this is the mistake of Brazilian legislators exempting churches from paying taxes such as property tax, ISS, and income tax on tithes and donations. Thus, many new churches emerge to facilitate money laundering…
The progressive forces, cornered by religious fundamentalism with its undeniable electoral power, still do not know how to confront this factor that constitutes the cultural substratum of our people. And the government has not yet found a strategy to counter the phenomenon of religious conservatism, whose cultural and political impact is significant.
In short, the right can indeed win the 2026 presidential elections if the Lula government and progressive forces do not recalibrate their strategies in communication, in the digital trenches, in the political education of the population, in religious issues, in the grassroots work of progressive political parties.
Social policies, however necessary and efficient they may be, do not change people's minds. Only a cultural and ideological offensive will be able to disseminate a new progressive consensus among the Brazilian population, like the one that elected Dilma Rousseff twice and Lula three times.
*Frei Betto He is a theologian and writer. Author, among other books, of For a critical and participatory education (Rocco).
Originally published on the website of Perseus Abramo Foundation.
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