By ARTHUR OSCAR GUIMARÃES*
A hypothesis already considered by some scholars reveals that the measures announced by the Donald Trump government may disregard or even ignore their real scope and significance for world trade.
1.
As the world faces dystopia[I] North American, the main characteristic of this beginning of the new administration at the head of the White House, a possible explanation for the adoption of the comprehensive trade tariff – recently imposed on several countries – lies in mercantilist assumptions vis-à-vis the demands of post-globalization.
To understand what is behind the recent economic measures mentioned, in particular the taxes imposed by the United States of America on various nations of the world, we can turn to the mercantilist theories of Thomas Mun (1571-1641), present in the work A Discourse of Commerce, from England to the East Indies (1621)[ii] when the then merchant argued that since England's total exports exceeded its total imports in the process of visible trade[iii], the export of gold bars was not harmful to that nation.
In the 21st century, let us understand England's 'gold bars' as the dollars paid by Americans today for their necessary imports. Thomas Mun pointed out that the money earned from the sale of products re-exported from the East Indies exceeded the amount of gold bars originally exported with which these products were purchased, and that, in this way, England would be increasingly rich.
I don't believe that the US economic team knows or has a complete understanding of Thomas Mun's theories, but the recent measures certainly have everything to do with 17th century mercantilism. The confusion created in globalized world trade, in times of Artificial Intelligence, ChatGPT, DeepSeek and modern forms of communication, has been made public in something similar to a biblical stone tablet, with tariffs written on a poster, like a papyrus, signifying how 'out of time' the measures announced on “Liberation Day” are, a timelessness that would certainly scare the mercantilist Thomas Mun.
But with each passing day, what has caused surprise to many economists and other experts around the world does not seem to be over. The US president said that the Chinese reaction could lead his government to impose large additional tariffs on Beijing if that country did not rescind its response to the US tariffs. Both in the US and in Asia, the shares of major global companies have suffered major fluctuations on the stock exchanges, with astronomical drops, in a movement that still has no clear end.
About to complete three months in office in his second difficult attempt to reverse the decline of the American empire, it is impossible to forget the content of Donald Trump's inaugural address, when he explicitly stated: "We will be a wealthy nation again. I will immediately begin an overhaul of our trading system to protect American workers and families.". Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will impose tariffs and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.”[iv]
2.
A hypothesis already considered by some scholars reveals that the measures announced by the Donald Trump administration – in such a short space of time – may, in fact, disregard or even ignore their real scope and significance for world trade. Despite the recent statement by the economist, Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2008, Paul Krugman – Stop Looking for Methods in the Madness,[v] There is no palpable reason to believe in naive and childish decisions. There is method in everything the world is watching: “There will be a little disturbance, but we don’t care about that,” said Donald Trump. “It won’t be a big deal.”[vi]
Among others, at least two dimensions gain greater importance at this moment: the economic dimension, apparently insufficient to explain the scope of everything seen so far, and the geopolitical dimension, which could complete the scenario of the crisis that is foreseen.
Whether it is the result of a certain insanity, or a scope (more appropriately, a target) to be achieved as a bullet for the North American economy, the scenario that is intended to be inaugurated indicates that something is 'outside the new world order':
“We need Greenland for international security. We need it. We must have it,” Donald Trump said. “I hate to say it this way, but we’re going to have to take possession of this huge Arctic territory,” Trump told a podcast host.
And further: “American ships are severely overloaded and not treated fairly in any way, including the US Navy. And most importantly, China operates the Panama Canal, and we didn't give it to China, we gave it to Panama. And let's take it back".
We do not intend to go into a geopolitical analysis. The words speak for themselves. However, it is worth highlighting here, in a more specific way, some aspects of the tariffs imposed by the US on various countries. Due to the multiplier effect of the problems that the Americans will reap in a relatively short period of time (just look at the recent demonstrations around the world and in the US itself), the inclusion in the list of 25% customs duties on “all automobiles not manufactured in the United States” is a measure that covers spare parts, and due to the international integration of the automotive production chain, this will be the most devastating measure on the prices of parts and automobiles in the US domestic market.
3.
And what about Brazil? What scenario can we foresee in what experts are now calling post-globalization? We warned in 1997 that “the way the country was inserting itself into the globalized economy was worrying. Without a backup in technological capacity.” Our attention was drawn to the fact that there would be “a change from (then) economic dependence to technological dependence on developed countries.”[vii]
We have done much less than we could in these almost 30 years, as it is essential that the country adopts a different stance in relation to the urgent need for a national science, technology and innovation policy, dynamic and focused on increasing investments in Research and Development (R&D), but necessarily in solidarity with the interests of the majority of its population, the neediest segments.
It is possible to say today, without fear of being wrong, that we are on the eve of one of the greatest crises[viii] world markets of the last 50 years. However, it is undeniable that the current crisis – despite the importance of other markets – will have as its epicenter the relationship between the USA and China. The table below shows the importance of these two markets for the Brazilian economy, specifically for our exports – including Argentina, our largest trading partner in South America.
The data presented highlights the leap made by Brazilian exports to China in 25 years (1999: US$ 0,674 billion; 2023: US$ 104.325; we are talking about 15.378% growth)! In the case of the USA, there was a certain stability between 2010/2020, with considerable growth in Brazilian exports to the North Americans, which practically doubled in the last five years, during the Biden Administration (2020: US$ 21 billion; 2024: US$ 40 billion). In the period 1999/2023, our exports to the USA grew by 246,2%.
In these terms, both countries are fundamental for Brazil and gain importance for the Brazilian economy, both in relative and absolute terms, since with the inclusion of Argentina, which remains our main trading partner within the scope of Mercosur, on average for the period considered we are talking about something around 40% of our exports.
The following graph is based on Brazilian exports (1997/2024), and allows a perfect visualization of: (i) the exponential growth of our exports to China; (ii) the growth of Brazilian exports to the USA (particularly during the last 5 years); and (iii) the stability of exports to Argentina, particularly in the last 15 years.
| Source: Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services | |
| Foreign Trade Secretariat | |
| https://comexstat.mdic.gov.br/pt/geral | |
A fundamental observation regarding our share of the Trumpist tariff plan is that the 10% tax on our products seemed like a lesser evil in difficult times when trade talks were apparently still stalled. The Brazilian case received special diplomatic space, with specific attention being paid to the tariffs on steel and aluminum exported by Brazil to the US. In the near future, experts will continue to focus on the case of China, where the lowered tariffs are added to the tariffs that already existed. There is still a lot of confusion in the information.
In the case of Europe, as an example, it is worth highlighting the North American decision in relation to alcohol: “After Europe promised retaliatory tariffs, Donald Trump launched a 200% tariff on European alcohol.”[ix]
O jornal Financial Times, in a peremptory manner, states that due to “reciprocal tariffs against the rest of the world, the US is heading for a recession this year”: “Donald Trump took office ten weeks ago. He inherited an economy with stable inflation and falling interest rates, but with growth still projected to outpace that of any major competitor this year. But with each new attack by Trump on the world economy, growth forecasts for the US are reduced.” [X]
4.
What do we call what we are witnessing? Crisis. “Crisis is often seen as an opportunity, especially in Chinese culture, where the character for crisis has a double meaning that includes opportunity. Every crisis can bring challenges, but it can also open doors for growth and innovation.”[xi]
In the current crisis, Brazil has the opportunity to structure effective public policies that are more than plans and reports that end up dormant on bureaucratic shelves. More than ever before, we need effective instruments that seek to generate greater productivity and competitiveness for national products. Increase our exports, yes. Create new markets, yes. Diversify our range of trading partners around the world, yes, because new destinations for Brazilian products will be essential during the crisis.
However, we cannot forget that the crisis caused by the high tariffs on stone tablets indicates that there is a 'critical danger point': a global recession. This will mean less investment, less production, fewer jobs, and less income for workers. As Caetano Veloso says, 'we need to be alert and strong'.
*Arthur Oscar Guimarães holds a PhD in sociology from the University of Brasília (UnB).
Notes
[I] Any imaginative description of a country, society or reality in which people live under conditions of extreme oppression or a totalitarian regime, as opposed to utopia. In: https://michaelis.uol.com.br/moderno-portugues/busca/portugues-brasileiro/distopia/ (Dystopia | Michaelis On-line).
[ii] “Thomas Mun was one of the first mercantilists. In other words, he believed that the reserves of gold of a nation are the chief measure of its wealth, and that governments should regulate trade to produce an excess of exports over imports in order to obtain more gold for the country.”. In ttps://www.britannica.com/money/Thomas-Mun (Thomas Mun – Brazil | Merchant, Commerce, Finance | Britannica Money).
[iii] That which involves the export, import and re-export of goods at various stages of production.
[iv] TRIBUNA, Mara. What Trump said: the new President's main statements in direct speech. In https://expresso.pt/internacional/eua/2025-01-20-o-que-disse-trump-as-principais-declaracoes-do-novo-presidente-em-discurso-direto-33a31826.
[v] Stop looking for method in the madness. In: https://jlcoreiro.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/ . Uncategorized | José Luis Oreiro
[vi] Why does Trump want more tariffs? Here's what he's said about U.S. imports. In https://www.msn.com/pt-br/dinheiro/outro/por-que-trump-quer-mais-tarifas-veja-o-que-ele-já-disse-sobre-as-importações-dos-eua/ar-AA1C9lOQ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=319496a343f74f1498cd5a540ce677ff&ei=17
[vii] “Country runs the risk of losing market share in globalization”. Interview given by AO Guimarães to Diário do Nordeste. BUSINESS. Technology. Fortaleza. Ceará. Friday, January 31, 1997; p. 3.
[viii] The word crisis comes from Greek, krisis, means decision. In Chinese, the ideogram for crisis speaks of a 'critical point of danger'. In COSTA, Melissa Andrade. Crisis or Opportunity: a matter of choice. On August 13, 2020. In https://acropole.org.br/artigos/sociedade-valores/crise-ou-oportunidade-questao-de-escolha/
[ix] In https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2025/trump-tariffs-enacted-effect-threatened/ And the newspaper adds: “Trump announced a 10% tariff on all products, in addition to an additional punitive import tax tailored to approximately 60 countries.” (01.April.2025)
[X] LUCE, Edward. Trump 2.0, the ten weeks that shook the world; April 1, 2025. In https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2025/04/01/ftanalise-trump-mantem-eua-firmes-no-caminho-da-autodestruicao.ghtml
[xi] COSTA, Melissa Andrade. Op. cit.
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