Donald Trump and Europe — certainties and uncertainties

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By FLAVIO AGUIAR*

Europe faces days of deep uncertainty for the next four years of Donald Trump's term

In recent years, two concerns have grown among most governments in Europe, both within the Union and beyond.

The first was the tension with Russia, caused by the war in Ukraine. Following the United States and NATO, most European countries aligned themselves with financial and military support for the Kiev government.

The second was that, with the growth of far-right parties, the agenda of almost all European governments and parties, from the center-left to the traditional right, began to assimilate in a more organic way the repudiation of immigrants and refugees, especially those who come from the former Third World, today the Global South, and those from Muslim countries.

Russia, the “invasion” of European space by those considered foreign to its cultural and even religious universe, the alleged terrorism imported from Arab countries: this is an explosive cocktail that feeds some of the most terrifying nightmares of rulers and ruled concerned with preserving the values ​​they consider to be authentically European, around liberal democracy and economic liberalism.

Now a new nightmare has come to join the ones already mentioned: the inauguration, starting this Monday, January 20, of Donald Trump for his second term in the White House.

Never has a US president accumulated so many powers. He has on his side a majority in both houses of Congress in Washington, a solid majority in the Supreme Court, which has guaranteed him criminal immunity while in office, and the explicit alignment of two of the world's largest Big Tech companies, led by Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. Others must join this true digital consortium, informative or disinformative, depending on whether one views them favorably or critically.

Elon Musk has already turned his attention to Europe, explicitly allying himself with far-right parties in some countries, such as the United Kingdom and Germany. Zuckerberg promises to suspend the system for verifying the credibility of information circulated by his Big Tech.

Europe's problems, however, are not only rooted in sources defined as external. Europe itself is navigating a sea of ​​turbulence and uncertainty.

The governments of the European Union's leading duo, France and Germany, are weakened. In 2024, France had four prime ministers. The current one, François Bayrou, escaped a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly by making concessions to the Socialist Party, including re-discussing the proposed social security reform defended by President Emmanuel Macron.

In Germany, Social Democratic Prime Minister Olaf Scholz faces a tough election in February. Polls are currently largely unfavorable to his party.

Far-right parties are in power in Hungary and Italy, and are harassing governments in Scandinavia, once a sanctuary for social democracy. In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party won the most votes in the last election and is now trying to form a coalition government with the traditional right.

The Schengen Agreement, which provides for free movement between European countries, is under threat as several of them are re-establishing police controls at their land borders.

The European Union's economy is in a state of crisis. Germany's alignment with the Kiev government, which accounts for 30% of the eurozone's GDP, has led to the interruption of Russian gas supplies to the country. German industry has entered a recession, beset by Chinese competition in the production of electric vehicles and harmed by the turbulence in global trade, due to the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. Germany remains the main exporter and importer of European products. A crisis in Germany is affecting the entire continent.

Even the recent signing of the Partnership Agreement between the European Union and Mercosur is a source of disagreement, with Germany wanting its rapid implementation, while the agricultural sector, from Spain to Poland, strongly opposes it.

Donald Trump and his allies are unpredictable. What will he do in Ukraine? In the Middle East? Are his claims to annex the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada just rhetorical bluffs?

From this complicated picture, one thing is certain: Europe will face days of profound uncertainty during the next four years of Donald Trump's term.

* Flavio Aguiar, journalist and writer, is a retired professor of Brazilian literature at USP. Author, among other books, of Chronicles of the World Upside Down (boitempo). [https://amzn.to/48UDikx]

Originally published in the “O Mundo Agora” section of Radio France Internationale (Brazil).


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