By ANDREW KORYBKO*
Trump's plans to build an Iron Dome are a game changer in new cold war, because they will take the US rivalry with Russia and China at a qualitatively more dangerous level
Donald Trump signed an Executive Order to build a Iron Dome for America, which aims to defend the homeland “against advanced ballistic, hypersonic, cruise missiles and other next-generation air attacks.” It will also include, importantly, space-based monitoring and interception systems. Some of these will also have “non-kinetic capabilities,” likely referring to directed-energy weapons (directed-energy weapons – DEWs)[1], but it's unclear whether they will be deployed on the ground and/or in space. Here are five takeaways from this monumental shift.
Bush Jr.'s unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 led Russia to develop hypersonic technology to prevent the U.S. from becoming comfortable enough with its missile defense shield to one day plan a first strike after thinking it could intercept Russia's second strike. The U.S.'s plans Iron Dome Trump's decisions mean there is no way back to the era of mutual restrictions on missile defense, which was already doubtful after what Bush Jr. did, thus worsening the Russian-American security dilemma.
The US just accelerated the second space race
The second Space Race has been underway since Donald Trump created the Space Force in 2019, but his latest Executive Order has accelerated it even further by forcing Russia and China to prioritize their space-based defense plans, which will inevitably result in the hypermilitarization of space. There’s no way these two won’t comply by deploying their own defensive systems, which could also disguise offensive weapons, just as the US may be secretly planning to do under this defensive guise.
Whichever country is the first to position itself to conduct kinetic bombardment against others, which refers to launching space-based projectiles at its opponent, will gain dominance. These weapons are popularly known as “rods of God” and are poised to become the next superweapon, as they may be impossible to intercept and can readily strike opponents due to their threatening orbit above their targets or in close proximity to them at all times. This makes them a military game-changer.
The above points prove that Trump’s Iron Dome plans are an unprecedented power play against Russia and China. The unofficial “rods of God” offensive element increases the chances that the US can destroy the enemy’s ground-based response capability after a first strike, while the official missile defense is aimed at neutralizing its remaining (submarine-based) capabilities. The combined effect is intended to place its enemies under nuclear blackmail, from which concessions can be extracted in perpetuity.
Space-based arms control must be a priority
Russia and China will work to neutralize the aforementioned US power play and then unveil their own systems to try to put the US in the same position of nuclear blackmail. This is a dangerous dynamic, as one of these three may feel that time is running out before they are put in such a position and that they must therefore launch a first strike without delay. The only way to reduce this risk is through a space-based arms control pact with reliable monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.
Donald Trump’s plans to build an Iron Dome for America are a watershed moment in the New Cold War, as they will take the US rivalry with Russia and China to a qualitatively more dangerous level. The resulting hypermilitarization of space that will occur as a result of Trump’s deployment of interceptors—which could disguise offensive weapons as “rods of God”—raises the risk of war by miscalculation. A space-based arms control pact between them is unlikely any time soon, but it is the only way to reduce that risk.
*Andrew Korybko holds a master's degree in International Relations from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Book author Hybrid Wars: From Color Revolutions to Coups (popular expression). [https://amzn.to/46lAD1d]
Translation: Arthur Scavone.
Translator's note
[1] During the Korean and Vietnam Wars, there was limited use of the bomb Lazy Dog, a kinetic projectile shaped like a conventional bomb but only about 1+3⁄4 inches (44 mm) long and 1⁄2 inch (13 mm) in diameter. A piece of sheet metal was bent to make fins and welded to the rear of the projectile. These were dropped from aircraft on enemy troops and had the same effect as a machine gun fired vertically. More recently a system described in the report of the United States Air Force 2003, Called Hypervelocity Rod Bundles, consisted of 20-foot-long (6,1 m) and 1-foot-diameter (0,30 m) tungsten rods, controlled by satellite and capable of global strike, with impact speeds of Mach 10. The bomb would naturally contain large kinetic energy because it moves at orbital speeds, about 8 kilometers per second (26.000 ft/s; Mach 24) in orbit and 3 kilometers per second (9.800 ft/s; Mach 8,8) on impact. As the rod re-enters the Earth's atmosphere, it would lose most of its velocity, but the remaining energy would cause considerable damage. Some systems are cited as having the yield of a small tactical nuclear bomb. These designs are intended as a bunker buster. As the name suggests, the 'bunker buster' is powerful enough to destroy a nuclear bunker. With 6 to 8 satellites in a given orbit, a target could be hit in 12 to 15 minutes from any given moment, less than half the time taken by an ICBM, and without launch warning. Such a system could also be equipped with sensors to detect anti-ballistic missile-type threats and relatively light countermeasures to use against them (e.g., hit-to-kill missiles or megawatt-class chemical lasers). The time between deorbit and impact would be only a few minutes, and depending on the orbits and positions in the orbits, the system would have a worldwide reach. There would be no need to deploy missiles, aircraft, or other vehicles. (Wikipedia).
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