By ANDRÉ MÁRCIO NEVES SOARES*
The Brazilian government's difficulty in understanding the meaning of Donald Trump's victory
Since Donald Trump won the US elections, much has been said. I will not repeat here the alarming arguments that predict an even more chaotic world when he takes office in January 2025. I am much more concerned at this moment about the difficulty the Brazilian government is having in understanding the meaning of Donald Trump's victory.
In this sense, I will borrow a phrase from Bernie Sanders, a Democrat with a more left-wing tone, who tried to run for the post of American president in 2016, but was defeated by the candidate Hillary Clinton, better accepted by the establishment. Bernie Sanders said after Trump's victory on his X page (formerly Twitter): "It shouldn't surprise us all that much that a Democratic Party that has abandoned working class discover that the working class has abandoned him.”
I suggest that Lula read and reflect on this message from Bernie Sanders, if he hasn't already done so.
Here in Brazil, Lula needs to stop trying to be a representative of the world and become a legitimate representative of the Brazilian people. In fact, while on the one hand Lula still sets up barriers to the ultra-liberal dismantling that his Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, is trying to impose on the country, under the argument of calming the moods of the “market” – an example of this was the alarming attempt to convince the President of the Republic to accept the reduction of resources to be allocated to the country’s main social areas, notably Health and Education – on the other hand he has systematically failed to address the small, daily, face-to-face policies that need to be developed with the less favored population. The PT’s fiasco in this year’s elections is more than a yellow, perhaps orange, sign for the 2026 elections, which will encompass the most important political positions in the country.
Therefore, it is essential that Lula takes the reins of the Brazilian government, in terms of national politics, no longer validates the negative policies of his closest subordinates and puts an end to the spurious agreements that are being signed with the Bolsonarists in the National Congress, especially with the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira. It is more than clear that Joe Biden's government was largely rejected due to the lack of impact of his social policies for the large American middle class. Of course, that was not all! fake news on immigrants and fundamentalist appeals were also important in the process of deconstructing the Biden government.
In the national scenario, where the middle class has been systematically reduced over the last few neoliberal decades, it becomes even more urgent that Lula turn his attention to the large mass of people who have suffered some kind of economic setback since the parliamentary coup of 2016, without forgetting the need to take care of the demands of those who were forgotten during the 13 years of PT government.
Now, a quick look is enough to realize that the economic numbers of Donald Trump's government were better than those of Joe Biden's government, even considering the pandemic that the former faced. In fact, inflation, which is so sensitive for Americans, increased considerably under Biden's government. And average wages did not keep up with the increase in prices.
While the economy suffered a sharp decline during the peak of the pandemic during Donald Trump's administration, it quickly recovered strongly in the period that followed. In contrast, the Biden administration has been characterized by relatively stable economic growth, but it has been low compared to the consumption needs of the world's most powerful country. On the other hand, while employment growth was significant under Biden, it has already shown signs of slowing down since the middle of this year, raising fears of a slowdown in the American economy next year.
Here, the Brazilian economy improved with Lula's third term in office, compared to the Temer-Bolsonaro period. I think there is no debate about that. However, the improvement in the Brazilian economy is far from being seen by the average citizen. In fact, the GDP has grown above expectations, but expectations for the public accounts are not good, especially due to the disastrous monetary policy practiced by the Central Bank, led by the Bolsonaro supporter Campos Neto.
Thus, fiscal risk is a narrative maintained by the Central Bank with the aim of imprisoning our society under the eternal need to reduce public spending, so that more revenue is left for rentierism.
The same type of false narrative was given in the past for monetary adjustments to control price indexes, which never worked satisfactorily in Brazil, due to a series of variables beyond mere fiscal adjustment. For example, the inertial inflation that the country experienced in the lost decade of the 1980s was not demand-side inflation, as international organizations, preferably the IMF, denounced, with the massive support of the main media outlets, but, on the contrary, was caused by a chronic shortage of supply, in an economy that struggled ingloriously to industrialize late.
Likewise, the worrying situation that the “market” is currently signaling for the Brazilian economy has nothing to do with the real thermometers that our economy presents. In fact, if Brazil were able to reduce the high burden of financial plundering to which it is subjected to pay interest on the public debt – which in the 12 months leading up to August 2024, accumulated R$855.00 billion, which corresponds to 7,55% of GDP – it would certainly have no problems financing its own growth.
If we take other economic parameters, such as the trade balance, the increase in international reserves, the fall in the basic interest rate (sic) and the maintenance of the inflation target, even though today it is well within the limit, we can see that the Brazilian problem has always been much more political than economic.
Therefore, I hope that those closest to Lula – his family, his closest friends and his most important ministers – will try to tone down his clearly megalomaniacal outbursts of considering himself a leader of international stature, with the real power to interfere in the most sensitive issues around the world, and bring him back to the more mundane issues of our social reality, because he is certainly running out of time to truly write his name in history as the greatest politician the country has ever had. And here I am considering that Lula will have the health and strength to run for re-election once again.
Making it possible for people to eat 1 kg of barbecued meat and drink a crate of beer per month would not solve our social problems. There is still a lot of work to be done in terms of educational reform, agrarian reform, housing reform, financial system reform, etc.! Do you see, Lula? Please try to be less the prince charming of the UN balls and more the bearded frog of the 1989 elections. The country will thank you!
* André Márcio Neves Soares holds a PhD from the Catholic University of Salvador (UCSAL).
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