By FELIPE APL COSTA*
Were we 203 million in 2022 or are we 213 million now?
Last Thursday (29/8), the IBGE released its most recent update on the size of the Brazilian population. We would now be around 213 million. In 2022, still according to the IBGE, we would be 203 million. There would have been an increase of almost 4,7% in two years, which would require an annual growth rate of around 2,3%. However, the population growth rate has been below 1% per year since 2008.
To solve the problem, my best guess would be the following: the result of the 2022 Census was an underestimate. I estimate that at least 6,2 million Brazilians were not properly registered. Apparently overestimated, the results that the IBGE released now may be the result of a process of adjustment and correction.
Very brief history
The first census of the Brazilian population took place in 1872.[1] The country then had 9.930.478 inhabitants, including 1.510.806 slaves (15% of the population).
The most populous provinces were Minas Gerais (2.039.735 inhabitants), Bahia (1.379.616), Pernambuco (841.539) and São Paulo (837.354).
The largest capitals were Salvador (129.109 inhabitants), Recife (116.671), Belém (61.997) and Ouro Preto (48.214).[2] The city of Rio de Janeiro, seat of the central government and then referred to as a neutral municipality, had 274.972 inhabitants.
New censuses were conducted in 1890 (14.333.915 inhabitants), 1900 (17.438.434) and 1920 (30.635.605).[3]
In 1936, the INE (National Institute of Statistics) was created, the ancestor of the current IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), which became responsible for the censuses. The fifth census operation, the first under the command of the INE, took place in 1940 (41.236.315 inhabitants).
Then came the censuses of 1950 (51.944.397 inhabitants), 1960 (70.992.343), 1970 (94.508.583), 1980 (121.150.573), 1991 (146.917.459) and 2000 (169.590.693). And the two most recent, in 2010 (190.755.799 inhabitants) and 2022 (203.080.756).
The 2019-2022 misgovernment and the 2022 Census
The census operation that took place in 2022, the 13th in history, was originally scheduled for 2020. The misgovernment that plagued the country between 2019 and 2022 boycotted the operation. That is why the fieldwork was only carried out – by court order (see here) – in 2022. The results began to be released in mid-2023 (see here).
On 1/8/2022, according to the 2022 Census, the country's population reached 203.080.756 inhabitants. It was the first time that a census recorded a population of over 200 million.
The result, however, was well below what was expected. It was a surprise and, to a certain extent, a disappointment. Note: in the first year of the pandemic, there was already talk of 210 million inhabitants; the following year, the annual estimate released by the IBGE was already around 213 million.[4] There were therefore many observers who were betting on results equal to or greater than 210 million; perhaps even in the region of 220 million. The discrepancy between what was expected and what was observed was significant and many people were left wondering.
IBGE estimates for 2024
Behold, last Thursday (29/8/2024), the IBGE released its most recent update for the size of the Brazilian population (see here). On 1/7/2024, the population would have reached 212.583.750 inhabitants.
It was another shock. The only thing that changed was the sign: it was a very big jump. Just note the following: compared to the result of the 2022 Census, the new estimate would represent an increase of 4,68%. Which would require an annual growth rate of around 2,3%. That's a lot.
Readers unfamiliar with the subject may not know, but 2,3% is a growth rate that is far beyond any reasonableness. At least by Brazilian standards: according to my calculations, the last time the annual growth rate was around 2,3% was in 1984. In fact, this rate has been declining since 1977. What's more, since 2008, the value has been below 1%. For example, in the 2009-2011 triennium, judging by my calculations, the values were 0,97% (2009), 0,94% (2010) and 0,92% (2011). In 2019, the last year before the pandemic, the value reached 0,75%.
It may not seem like it, but there is a huge distance separating 0,75% from 2,3%.
Tail
In normal governments (I mean: when the entrepreneurs of terror and the political far-right are kept in cages), the IBGE produces and publishes countless quality products. This does not mean that the products are free from errors or misunderstandings. They are not. I dare say that the discrepancy pointed out in this article would be an example.
My best hypothesis to explain this discrepancy would be the following: the result of the 2022 Census was an underestimate – I estimate that something like 6.238.077 inhabitants were not properly counted. In 2022, therefore, the country's population would not in fact be around 203 million, but rather around 209 million.
Why would this have happened? I do not have access to the IBGE records, but one possible explanation would be the fact that a significant percentage of residents (more than on previous occasions) did not want to receive or did not want to respond to the census takers (see here).
But why would this have happened? In short, I would say the following: life in society gets much worse when the entrepreneurs of terror and the political far-right are normalized, as is happening among us. The Brazilian press, for example, almost all of it in the hands of rentiers, loan sharks or thieves in general, can't even call the far-right by name.
Finally, I see the results released on Thursday (29/8) as the result of a process of adjustment and correction.[5] I say: the Brazilian population did not increase by 4,68% in two years, even though the most correct number today may be around 213 million.
*Felipe APL Costa is a biologist and writer. Author, among other books by What is darwinism.
Notes
[1] For details, see the 12 volumes of the collection. Census of Brazil in 1872; the PDF with vol. 1 can be captured here.
[2] In the case of the province of Minas Gerais, eight municipalities were more populous than the capital, namely: Serro (67.436 inhabitants; in 2024: 67.103), Ponte Nova (57.231; in 2024: 59.569), Queluz (current Conselheiro Lafaiete, 56.902; in 2024: 137.980), Sabará (55.449; in 2024: 134.286), Minas Novas (54.447; in 2024: 24.191), Grão Mogol (53.005; in 2024: 14.091), Rio Pardo (current Rio Pardo de Minas, 51.583; in 2024: 29.123) and Santa Bárbara (48.344; in 2024: 31.756).
[3] For a somewhat detailed historical review, see here.
[4] During the pandemic (2020-2023), for example, the National Council of Health Secretaries (Conass) adopted the estimate of 210.147.125 inhabitants. On 1/7/2021, as the IBGE itself announced in August of that year, the country's population would have reached 213.317.639 (see here).
[5] Taking into account the results now released by IBGE, I take this opportunity to update and expand on the considerations I made in a previous article (see here) regarding the distribution of the Brazilian population. Namely:
(a) the 15 largest municipalities in the country, all with more than 1 million inhabitants, together are home to 42.766.437 inhabitants (20% of the total);
(b) still, however, the majority of the country's population (80.896.456, equivalent to 38% of the total) is living elsewhere: in the 321 municipalities (<6% of the total) that have between 100 and 1 million inhabitants;
(c) in the final count, half of the country's population is concentrated in 199 municipalities (<4% of the total). The list includes the 15 municipalities in item (a) and the first 184 in item (b). It starts in São Paulo (11,896 million inhabitants) and ends in Pouso Alegre MG (160,75 thousand);
(d) the majority of municipalities (2.768, or 49,7% of the total), however, are of a different size class: most have between 10.000 and 100.000 inhabitants. Together, they are home to 76.146.126 inhabitants (36% of the total); and, finally,
(e) the remaining 2.466 municipalities (44% of the total) have less than 10 inhabitants. Together, they are home to 12.774.731 inhabitants (6% of the total).
Here is the list of the 15 municipalities (13 are capitals) mentioned in item (a), in decreasing order of size: (i) Over 10 million – São Paulo; (ii) Between 5 and 10 million – Rio de Janeiro; (iii) Between 2 and 5 million – Brasília, Fortaleza, Salvador, Belo Horizonte and Manaus; and (iv) Between 1 and 2 million – Curitiba, Recife, Goiânia, Belém, Porto Alegre, Guarulhos (SP), Campinas (SP) and São Luís. São Gonçalo (RJ) and Maceió were previously on this list; currently, however, both municipalities are home to less than 1 million inhabitants.
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