By LISZT VIEIRA*
The strengthening of the PT in the presidential election, due mainly, but not exclusively, to Lula's leadership, is accompanied by its weakening at the regional and municipal level
“Neither laugh nor cry, but understand”
(Espinoza).
As expected, the right wing won in most Brazilian cities. Candidates supported by Lula won in the first round in Rio de Janeiro and Recife, and will compete in the second round in other important cities such as São Paulo and Porto Alegre, for example.
The municipal elections showed the strength of the reelection, of the Centrão and of the right. The Brazilian electorate's tendency towards the right has been growing since 2016 and was consolidated this year. Candidates who run for the PL, PRTB, União Brasil, PSD, PP, Avante and Republicanos parties, without alliances with left or center parties, are considered right-wing.
The PSD, MDB, PP and União Brasil, which make up the so-called Centrão, dominated the municipal elections, together winning more than half of the country's city halls. The PL and Republicanos had the greatest growth and came in fifth and sixth. The Centrão won in more than 50% of the cities. Together, the PSD, MDB, PP and União Brasil elected more than 3.000 mayors in the first round. This corresponds to 54% of the country's cities.
The standout party in the Centrão is the PSD, which elected the largest number of mayors in the country and beat the MDB for the first time in more than two decades. The PL, Jair Bolsonaro's party, grew 49% in the number of mayors. The PL won 510 mayoral elections, a number higher than in 2010, when it won in 354 municipalities. But it fell far short of the goal of 1.500 mayoral elections announced by its president, Valdemar Costa Neto.
The PT also grew, but remained in ninth place. The PT increased its number of mayors by 39%, reversing part of the decline it had seen since Lava Jato. 252 PT mayors were elected in the first round of 2024, placing the party in ninth place in the party ranking. The party's most important victories were in Contagem and Juiz de Fora, both in Minas Gerais. The PT will also contest 13 second rounds — the second highest number, only behind the PL. Among the capitals, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Natal and Cuiabá.
The PSOL candidate for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Tarcísio Motta, received fewer votes for Mayor (129.344) in 2024 than for Federal Deputy in 2022 (159.928). A large part of the left cast a useful vote for Mayor Eduardo Paes to combat the far-right candidate, Alexandre Ramagem. In São Paulo, Guilherme Boulos saved the entire left from a tragic defeat. The right and the far-right (Ricardo Nunes, Pablo Marçal and Marina Helena) won 59% of the valid votes in São Paulo.
If Guilherme Boulos wins in São Paulo, this victory will largely compensate for the left’s defeats in most of the country. The big news in São Paulo was the emergence of a new far-right candidate, Pablo Marçal, who used anti-“system” rhetoric to gain pro-Bolsonaro votes. After all, Jair Bolsonaro is now part of the “system.” Since Lula is now the “system,” made worse by his agreements with the right in the name of governability, and Jair Bolsonaro has also become “system,” the field is open for a outsider make an aggressive speech against institutions and democracy.
This is what we saw in São Paulo, which in the past elected Cacareco and Tiririca. Candidate Pablo Marçal, when he released a false document on the eve of the election accusing Guilherme Boulos of drug use, made a mistake, lost the election and will pay for it in court. He was inspired by the antecedents of false documents such as the Cohen Plan, invented by the military to justify the Estado Novo coup in 1937, and the Brandi Letter, released on TV on the eve of the election by Congressman Carlos Lacerda, with the support of the newspapers. The Globe e Press Tribune, to incriminate João Goulart and prevent Juscelino Kubitschek from taking office in 1955.
This aggressive discourse is against everything and in favor of nothing. It finds fertile ground among the excluded. Excluded from income, education, culture, and steady, dignified work. These desperate people are pawns of the powerful who support fascism to take economic advantage. In essence, we have once again the conflict between civilization and barbarism, between democracy and dictatorship. Behind the scenes, neoliberalism works hard to finance a far-right regime that ensures the continuity of its economic and financial domination.
The first round of the 2024 election indicated a rise in the right, but not necessarily in the pro-Bolsonaro right. In the vast majority of cities, the discussion on local issues prevailed. Lula and Jair Bolsonaro did not have the influence that was imagined, but in the case of São Paulo, Lula's support for Guilherme Boulos is decisive. In São Paulo, we have political polarization, which is absent in most municipalities.
As journalist Mauricio Thuswohl recalls in his excellent article in Capital letter, one should not disregard the power of the public machine and the greater time for propaganda on radio and TV. Candidates considered to be terrible mayors made it to the second round, such as, for example, Sebastião Melo, in Porto Alegre, and Fuad Noman, in Belo Horizonte.
There is no direct relationship between voting and good governance, or between voting and good economic results. A good example is former candidate Joe Biden, who would lose by a landslide to Donald Trump, despite the country's good economic indicators. The case of Sebastião Melo, in Porto Alegre, is scandalous. He diverted all the maintenance funds for the flood protection system, was considered the main culprit for the floods, with enormous losses to the city and its inhabitants, and reached the second round in first place, with a real chance of winning.
The PSD won the largest number of mayoral elections in the entire country, which could ensure that the party led by Gilberto Kassab will play an even more important role in national politics. “The PSD is neither right-wing, nor left-wing, nor centrist,” Gilberto Kassab often says. The speech by the elected mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes, after his victory in the first round, condemning polarization, alongside politicians from both the right and the left, is a good example of the “general confusion” of the PSD.
The winning candidates were generally those who moderated their ideological discourse and presented themselves as managers. The ideological right will remain an important but minority force. The vast majority of the right is physiological, supporting those in power in exchange for advantages.
The growth of the PSD is one of the most important facts of these elections. It is becoming an important factor in the political scenario of 2026, and therefore should gain more space in the Lula government. But the PSD's opportunism does not build a national political option. It mainly serves to help Gilberto Kassab sell his support at a higher price in 2026.
According to political scientist Claudio Couto, the PSD is an omnibus party, like the PMDB in the past. For him, there is no longer a right-wing wave, but an already established right. According to him, today, in any survey, the right appears with 35% to 40% and the left with 20%. In Congress, 60% of parliamentarians are right-wing, as are half of the governors elected in 2022 (Capital letter, 3/10/2024).
Since 2012, when it elected 27% of Brazil's mayors, the left has been declining. In 2020, it elected only 15%. This has to do with the systematic decline of the PT in municipalities, especially in the capitals, where it elected nine mayors in 2004 and elected none in 2020. This year, the PT will contest the second round in Porto Alegre, Natal, Fortaleza and Cuiabá.
In the name of future alliances for the presidential election, the PT gave up on launching its own candidates in several capitals and its electorate was dispersed. This made sense in the initial phase of the party's growth. It was necessary to form alliances because the PT, in its early years, had no electoral strength. Today, support for candidates from other parties leads to the disappearance of the PT in many states and municipalities.
The party’s strengthening in the presidential election, due mainly, but not exclusively, to Lula’s leadership, is accompanied by the PT’s weakening at the regional and municipal levels. All in the name of future alliances, which in politics are never certain. The fulfillment of a political promise will depend on the future situation. The elected mayor of Rio de Janeiro, for example, promised not to run for governor in 2026 and to continue as mayor, but no one believes that.
In short, the results of the municipal elections were very bad for left-wing parties in Brazil. In most cases, the right won, which strengthened itself at the national level. Even in cases where the left won, it is important to recognize that many mayors elected by the PT have no political commitment to the party's program. With the majority of municipalities in the hands of the right, the Lula government will probably open up more space for the Centrão in the name of governability, a tactic that has caused more harm than good.
While it is true that the right wing has strengthened in this first round, the same cannot be said about the far right. There are signs that the far right wing may have weakened, at a national level, depending on the results of the second round. For the 2026 presidential election, Lula has significant support in Recife, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, even if Guilherme Boulos does not win in the second round. He has become a national leader, with the possibility of even becoming a presidential candidate if Lula does not want to be. Another leader who is projecting himself into the future, with a center-left profile, is Mayor João Campos, from Recife.
In the North and Central West, the dispute is between the right and the extreme right. In the Northeast, always loyal to Lula, the left only won in Recife and is in the second round in Fortaleza and Natal, having lost in the other capitals. The South is traditionally conservative and the Southeast is divided.
It is time to reflect. An interesting example is the case of the city councilman elected by the PSOL party in Rio de Janeiro, Rick Azevedo, completely unknown in traditional left-wing circles. He was the 12th most voted and ran a campaign on social media, with more than 100 thousand followers, defending the reduction of the working day, in line with the European left that there is life beyond work. Since the PT and other left-wing parties have come to exist almost exclusively based on institutional politics, with elections as their compass, many voices are now being raised advocating a return to the grassroots, which have been under siege by the right.
Congress currently moves around R$50 billion in amendments, and most of this money is in the hands of the right wing, while the left wing shows no signs of significant growth. With the exception of the polarized election in São Paulo, the vast majority of those elected do not have a defined political profile. The PT disappears at the regional and local level and plays all its cards in alliances for the future presidential election of 2026. And, in general, it makes alliances increasingly to the right to combat the extreme right.
At this rate, left-wing programs, even with the strengthening of Lulaism, tend to disappear from Brazilian political reality. It is time for left-wing parties to seek new paths and show their faces, revealing their true identity.
*Liszt scallop is a retired professor of sociology at PUC-Rio. He was a deputy (PT-RJ) and coordinator of the Global Forum of the Rio 92 Conference. Author, among other books, of Democracy reactsGaramond). [https://amzn.to/3sQ7Qn3]
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