stock of financial wealth

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By FERNANDO NOGUEIRA DA COSTA*

Movements observed in the Brazilian labor market and income distribution

The Continuous National Household Sample Survey - IBGE Continuous Retrospective PNAD points out the main movements observed in the Brazilian labor market since the beginning of the Continuous PNAD series that took place in 2012 until 2022.

It makes all the difference, in terms of per capita calculations and international comparisons, the fact that Brazil has an estimated workforce of 108,1 million people in 2022. The rate of participation of the adult population in the workforce has grown again , standing at 62,4% last year, after reaching the lowest level in the series in 2020 (59,3%).

The employed population was estimated at 98 million people in 2022. Compared to 2012, when the employed population was, on average, 89,6 million people, there was an increase of 9,4%. The unemployed population totaled 10 million people in 2022. Compared to 2014, when the Brazilian labor market registered the lowest level of unemployment (6,8 million people), the expansion was 46,4%.

The unemployment rate in 2022 was estimated at 9,3%, 3,9 percentage points lower than the estimate for 2021 (13,2%). In comparison with 2014, the growth was 2,4 percentage points because the indicator had dropped to 6,9% at the end of Dilma I.

The highest level of employment occurred precisely in the years 2013 to 2014, the height of the Growth Acceleration Plan (PAC), when it reached 58,1% of the population of working age. By 2020, it had dropped to 51,2%; recovered in V to 56,6% in 2022.

In 2012, there were 35,2 million employees in the private sector in Brazil with a formal contract. In 2014, this contingent reached the highest level in the series, 37,6 million. In 2022, this contingent was lower: 35,9 million people in the country.

Employees without a formal contract in the private sector were 12,9 million people in 2022. Compared to 2014, when the estimate had been 10,5 million people, the increase was 22,6%. They represent about a quarter of employment in this sector.

Domestic workers in Brazil, in 2012, comprised 6 million people. In 2022, there were 5,8 million people, indicating the search for new jobs.

The number of employers in Brazil reached 4,2 million people in 2022. Compared to the beginning of the series, when there were 3,5 million employers, the movement was one of expansion (+12,2%). Among them, 3,4 million had CNPJ, while 802 thousand did not have this record in 2022.

Self-employment involved, in 2012, 20,1 million workers in the country. It reached a total of 25,5 million in 2022, corresponding, therefore, to an increase of 5,5 million people in ten years. Among them, about 74,3% had no CNPJ registration in 2022.

Brazilian society is predominantly concerned with urban services. In the scenario of general gains in employment in 2022, Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and Aquaculture was the only activity with a percentage decrease in the employed population (-1,6%). It went on to register 8,7 million workers. In relation to 2012, when this group reached 10,2 million people, the decrease was 15,1%, that is, less 1,5 million people. Agro is not pop!

General industry in Brazil does not employ as much as it used to. In the year 2022, 12,6 million workers. From 2014 to 2022, it lost 842 workers.

The average real income from all jobs, usually received by people with income from work, was estimated at R$2.715 in 2022. The mass of real average income from all jobs was estimated at R$261,3 billion, with growth driven by the increase in the employed population. In the year, it expanded the domestic market by 6,9%.

In 2022, there were an estimated 214,2 million people residing in the country, compared to 197,7 million in 2012. The Southeast Region concentrated most of the population (42,1%), followed by the Northeast Regions (27%), South ( 14,3%), North (8,8%) and Midwest (7,8%). Of that total, 134,1 million (62,6%) had some type of income.

In 2022, the contingent of people with income from all jobs corresponded to 44,5% (95,2 million) of the resident population. Of the residents, 24,4% (52,2 million) had some income from other sources. The retirement and pension category obtained the highest estimate: 13,3% (28,5 million people) of the resident population. It was followed by “other income”, including social aid: 8,9% (19,1 million people). Donations and allowances for non-residents and alimony (2,0%) and rent and leasing (1,7%) followed.

In 2022, the real average monthly income from all sources was estimated at BRL 2.533, 2,6% less than at the beginning of the series in 2012. It was quite different between the Major Regions: the Midwest Region recorded the highest value (R$2.964), followed by the Southeast (R$2.917) and South (R$2.874) Regions, while the lowest was verified in the Northeast Region (R$1.714).

Analysis of the historical series of the Gini index of the real average monthly income usually received from all jobs shows, between 2012 and 2015, that there was a downward trend in this indicator of income concentration, from 0,504 to 0,490. From 2016, however, the index increased to 0,498, a value at which it remained in 2017, and worsened (0,506) in 2018 and 2019. unequal, causing the Gini index to fall to the lowest value in the series (2022).

The half of the population with the lowest real monthly household income per capita received, on average, R$537 in 2022. Compared to 2012 (R$491), there was an increase of 9,4% in this national average of the poorest 50%.

From 2012 to 2022 there was also an increase in average per capita household income in almost all of the distribution in deciles, especially in the first half of the distribution. But the class over 95% to 99% showed a reduction of 3,8% (from R$ 7.152 to R$ 6.882) in comparison with the 2012 estimate, while the class over 99% to 100% decreased 7,1% in period (from R$18.772 to R$17.447). The average number of people per household is estimated at three, so the income of a couple in the richest 1% would be R$35.

In 2022, the 1% of the population with the highest income, whose real average monthly income was R$ 17.447, received, on average, 32,5 times the income of the half of the population with the lowest income, whose real average monthly income was R$ $537. In 2012, it was 38,2 times.

The portion of the 10% with the lowest income of the population held only 1% of the mass of R$ 339,6 billion, vis-à-vis 40,7% of the 10% with the highest income in 2022. This richest group received a share of the income mass almost equivalent to that of the 80% of the population with the lowest income (43,4%).

However, between 2021 and 2022, the group of 10% with the highest income lost share in the per capita household income mass (two percentage points), while all the other deciles with the lowest income had a positive change.

Does this say everything about income distribution in Brazil? Evidently not, because it does not inform about the yield of compound interest on the capitalization of stocks of wealth of the different fractions.

For example, I estimated the evolution of financial wealth per capita based on the statistics released by ANBIMA for Retail, in the last 6 months, when the SELIC interest rate was 13,75% per year, equivalent to 1% per month. In the total number of accounts, which can be more than one per CPF, it went from 136,3 million to 141,2 million in this semester, therefore, the per capita stock rose from only R$ 22.258 to R$ 22.919.

That doesn't reveal everything. In Traditional Retail (from 122,5 million to 126,6 million accounts), per capita wealth varied from just R$13.689 to R$13.736. In High Income Retail (from 13,8 million to 14,6 million accounts), the variation was from R$ 98.289 to 102.639. In the capital of São Paulo, it was much more: from R$ 110.809 to R$ 121.518.

In parallel reality, in the same period (September 22-Mar23), the per capita wealth of the Consulting (from 144.880 to 149.336 customers) grew from R$12,289 million to R$12.461 million, that is, R$172.000 more in these 6 months. It can either be due to “surplus income” (savings), or compound interest capitalization, in the case of fixed income, or variable income distributed in the form of stock dividends.

Make the following estimate, 1% per month for those who had BRL 5 million in financial investments (volume of business to be Private), in 6 months, that would be R$ 5,308 million without investing any more “surplus income”… It’s like R$ 50 in salary. Only.

*Fernando Nogueira da Costa He is a full professor at the Institute of Economics at Unicamp. Author, among other books, of Brazil of banks (EDUSP).


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