By CARLOS HENRIQUE VIANNA*
Betting on the irrelevance of European countries, on the near collapse of the European project, is a clear exaggeration, it is more in the realm of Europhobia on the part of certain analysts than in an objective assessment of Europe's relative weight in the world.
In article posted on the website the earth is round, Flávio Aguiar wrote: “But the Friday's meeting in the Oval Office It was a demonstration of how the (Western) Bloc is changing its nature, to say the least. It no longer has a leader; it has a boss, Donald Trump, advised by a foreman, JD Vance. With his finger pointed, the boss dictates what his former allies, now his subjects, should or should not think, feel and do. It is up to them to keep their ears to the ground and obey his orders.”
For Flávio Aguiar, European countries are vassals of Donald Trump's USA and owe him blind obedience. This is what can be inferred from his article “Washington's new absolute monarch”.
It is striking in the article cited that Flávio Aguiar takes it as established that Donald Trump's extremist and even crazy dictates are what will happen without question. With Donald Trump, the leadership of the US superpower has become a relationship between a tough boss and his fearful employees, according to the columnist.
Now, even the US Supreme Court, in addition to several at the state level, have already reversed executive orders from the “emperor”, such as the freezing of USAID aid or the unconstitutional measure of denying nationality to the children of immigrants born in the US. And what about the “vassal” Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, who retaliated by imposing a 25% tax on Canada and Mexico, but has already been postponed until April 2. And who called Donald Trump’s measures “stupid”. In the case of China, it will retaliate harshly against the 10% tax announced by the US government. Does anyone doubt China’s ability to stand up to Donald Trump?
The reaction of European countries to the Ukrainian government and armed forces being pulled out of the picture was immediate, and they were clearly opposed to Donald Trump. Europe is in an arms race against time, and is committed to supporting Ukraine, and a defeat for Ukraine, with the collapse of the current government and surrender to Russia, would be a European defeat. This was established at the summit of heads of government on March 6, with the approval of the plan proposed by the European Commission for 800 billion euros for military spending and support for Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether Europe, with 500 million inhabitants and an economy 10 times larger than Russia’s, will bow down to the other “emperor”, Donald Trump’s partner, Vladimir Putin, the late of the USSR and the KGB.
Regarding Europe, Flávio Aguiar wrote the following: “The Western bloc’s calling card included the capitalist regime, electoral democracy, cultural freedom and social customs, and often the economic protection of European social democracy. It is true that this card did not always correspond to reality, given that the United States and its allies often sponsored, supported or comfortably coexisted with bloodthirsty dictatorships in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania.”
As for us Latin Americans, it was the United States, not Europe, that actively supported the military dictatorships of the 1960s and 1970s. During Pinochet’s Chilean coup, the United States and the Brazilian military dictatorship were the main supporters. Several European and Latin American countries opened their embassies to protect and grant asylum to thousands of Chileans and Latin Americans living in Chile. The Soviet bloc immediately cut off relations with the new regime. And do you know who closed the embassy to asylum requests from Chilean left-wing leaders? It was socialist China, which not only maintained but also increased relations with Pinochet’s new fascist regime. Anyone who was there during those terrible days knows this.
Returning to Europe and Donald Trump, the measures and statements that have been taken and announced by European leaders, after the “booling“made by Donald Trump and DJ Vance to Volodymyr Zelenski, are not consistent with Flávio Aguiar’s diagnosis: It is up to them to “lower their ears and obey orders” (from their boss Trump).”
Geopolitics and unstable global balances are changing rapidly, and we are witnessing with surprise an unusual US-Russia articulation, driven by the personal closeness between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. But is Europe “a Union that sees itself threatened with drowning in the whirlpool of geopolitical irrelevance?” If Russia has an indisputable victory in the conflict with Ukraine, Europe will also be defeated. And so it is quickly mobilizing to face what it considers a real threat: Vladimir Putin’s Russia, now elevated to the role of player main by Donald Trump.
Will NATO, as a military alliance of the Western bloc, disappear and give way to a pure-blood European alliance? Will the US dismantle its military bases in Europe? Will there be European troops on Ukrainian territory?
It is difficult to predict the future, but betting on the irrelevance of European countries, on the near collapse of the European project, seems to me to be a clear exaggeration, it is more in the realm of Europhobia among certain analysts than an objective assessment of Europe's relative weight in the world.
It is always good to remember that the so-called “socialist world” symbolically collapsed with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the USSR “disintegrated” in Fidel Castro’s words, developing an oligarchic capitalist system and an authoritarian regime in the wild decade of the 1990s and the beginning of this century. It is these radical changes that caused the countries of Eastern Europe to run into the arms of the Western bloc. Ukraine is yet another of these countries that, at least in part, opted for the West. It seems that this was the last straw for Vladimir Putin, who considers the dissolution of the USSR to be the greatest “geopolitical tragedy” of the XNUMXth century.
Unfortunately, this 21st century has been characterized by more militarism, more wars, more humanitarian tragedies. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are the “face” of this, candidates for “emperors”. Will they win?
*Carlos Henrique Vianna is an engineer. He was director of Casa do Brasil in Lisbon. He is the author, among other books, of A question of justice.
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