By PLINIO DE ARRUDA SAMPAIO JR.*

An eventual defeat of the most reactionary sectors of the order in 2022 would represent a momentary relief in the class war waged by the bourgeoisie against the workers.

Despite the excellent services rendered by Jair M. Bolsonaro to capital, the bourgeoisie is seriously considering the possibility of discarding him. The absolute lack of control of the health crisis, the growing social dissatisfaction and the bad relationship with China and the United States, strategic trading partners, make him more and more dysfunctional as head of state.

If there was already no lack of crimes of responsibility to remove him from the presidency of the Republic, the bombastic testimony of the Miranda brothers to the CPI of the Pandemic increased the pressure for the opening of an impeachment process. Bolsonaro's connivance with dark corruption schemes in the purchase of vaccines, commanded by the leader of the government in the Chamber of Deputies, Ricardo Barros, makes his stay in power practically unsustainable.

Even so, the bourgeoisie is still reluctant to give the green light for his deposition. With no concern for the health of Brazilians and the morality of public affairs, those in power lead the frying of the former militia captain in a slow, safe and gradual manner, with an eye only and exclusively on what suits their business. In the best tradition of structural authoritarianism that characterizes Brazilian history, the role reserved for the streets in the “Fora Bolsonaro” operation is just that of giving a veneer of legitimacy to his overthrow.

For the workers, putting the population's protests in the wake of the conspiracies from the top floor is a dangerous trap. Turning hundreds of thousands of dead people into political assets to wear Bolsonaro down electorally is not only immoral and criminal, but also highly risky, as it opens up the possibility of consolidating a buffer government under Mourão and building a more “third way”. palatable to capital. A similar operation resulted in the election of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the institutionalization of the neoliberal cycle.

If Bolsonaro is more dangerous than the virus, as he indeed is, his deposition cannot proceed at a turtle's pace. Estimates from the University of Washington show that, on July 24, the date originally set by the Frente Brasil Popular and Frente Povo sem Medo for the next “Fora Bolsonaro” demonstration, Brazil should account for more than 60 deaths.^[1]

There is no doubt that an eventual defeat of the most reactionary sectors of order in 2022 would represent a momentary relief in the class war waged by the bourgeoisie against the workers. But, without a profound change in the foundations of the Brazilian State, nothing suggests that it would be enough to stop the overwhelming attacks against labor rights, public policies, national sovereignty and the environment in full swing.

Placing the “Fora Bolsonaro” campaign in line with the imperatives of order and framing it in the demands of “social peace” is an unforgivable complicity with the sanitary genocide and with the neoliberal escalation. For Bolsonaro's deposition to open new horizons for workers, it is not enough to change the guard at Alvorada.

The cleaning has to be complete and the change in the bases of support of the State broad, general and unrestricted. It should not be forgotten that Ricardo Barros, the pivot of the last corruption scandal in the purchase of vaccines, was leader of the FHC government in the Chamber of Deputies and vice-leader of the Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments, before becoming Temer's Minister of Health and return to government leadership in the Bolsonaro administration.

So that it is not just a mass of maneuvers in disputes that divide political agents from the bourgeoisie in the war for power, popular intervention needs to be quick, daring and radical, based on a program of clear and unequivocal defense of the immediate and strategic interests of the working class. . Vaccine in the arm, food on the plate and a complete change in the economic and political model, with a view to organizing a society based on substantive equality, are the flags that should guide the fight for the overthrow of Bolsonaro and Mourão.

Interrupting the sanitary genocide and halting capital's offensive against work are the challenges of the moment. Popular mobilization must be permanent and accompanied by the construction of a health strike that paralyzes the production and circulation of goods.

Fortunately, pressure from the streets anticipated the next demonstrations. On the 3rd of July, everyone to the National Act “Bolsonaro and Mourão Out”! And then, not leaving the streets, combining specific mobilizations and mass demonstrations, until the government falls.

* Plinio de Arruda Sampaio Jr. is a retired professor at the Institute of Economics at Unicamp and editor of Contrapoder website. Author, among other books, of Between nation and barbarism – dilemmas of dependent capitalism (Voices).

Originally published on the site www.contrapoder.net.

Notes

[1] Estimate by the IHME – Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation – at the University of Washington. https://covid19.healthdata.org/brazil?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend.