The Gaza massacre – a possible hypothesis

Image: Ready Made


The possibilities in Palestine are multiple, but almost all alternatives point to the continuation of bombers and the “aerial genocide” of the population of the Gaza Strip

After three months of continued bombardment of the Gaza Strip by Israeli troops, the round numbers are frightening: 24.210 Palestinians dead, seven thousand missing, 60 thousand injured or maimed, and around 1,5 million homeless, 80% of which are dead and injured, women and children. And even more frightening is the decision by Benjamin Netanyahu's government to continue this relentless bombardment, until the complete elimination of Hamas.

There are, however, several points in this narrative that are not consistent and do not seem to close. The first and most important is the disproportion between the indiscriminate and massive destruction of Gaza, which is being carried out, and the objective of ending Hamas. Even more so when the Israeli authorities know that it is technically impossible to end the Palestinian movement, especially because the savagery of the bombings has increased the population's support and the sympathy of Gaza's youth for their guerrilla organization.

The second point is that the Israeli authorities must have already realized that the support of the international community that initially sympathized with their cause is decreasing, and that Israel's isolation is increasing, which could become a serious problem for Israel. its own survival. In this sense, the denunciation of Israel, by South Africa, to the International Court of The Hague, for the crime of “genocide of the Palestinian people”, is resonating and synthesizing, at this moment, an increasingly widespread feeling among all humanity.

It is enough to follow the successive votes of the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations, on the ceasefire in Gaza, or on Palestinian rights, to assess how isolated Israel and its main guarantor, the United States, are. Attention is drawn, for example, to the last vote of the General Assembly, on December 19, 2023, on a motion in defense of the “right to self-determination of the Palestinian people”, whose result was overwhelming: 172 votes in favor, 10 abstentions and four votes against – from Israel, Nauru, Micronesia and the United States. The United States' own position, in this sense, is becoming increasingly untenable from the point of view of the “rules-based world order” defended by Americans.

When you look at this painting, the first impression you have is of irrational revenge, driven by hatred and religious fanaticism.[I] But it is difficult to imagine that this is also the motivation of the United States and some European countries that have been supporting the Gaza extermination strategy. For this reason, an increasing number of international analysts have supported the hypothesis that this conflict was induced to facilitate the achievement of objectives that go far beyond the Gaza Strip itself.

Hence, perhaps, the comparison that the Israeli Prime Minister usually makes between October 8, 2023 and September 11, 2001. On both occasions, some kind of conspiracy by men or chance would have allowed a reaction to be carried out and a strategy that had already been designed and prepared for a long time. In the case of the United States, the objective would be to expand its global power through a universal war on terrorism led by itself. And in the case of October 8, the Israeli objective would be to reconfigure the geopolitics of the Middle East, with the destruction of Hezbollah and the attack on Iran's military and atomic capabilities. An attack that has been prepared for many years, but which even Today it has not yet had the support of the United States.

If this is not entirely true, it at least makes more sense than believing that the destruction of Gaza is being carried out simply out of revenge, or as a way to put an end to Hamas. When you think about it like this, you can even better understand why the recent departure of some Israeli battalions from the Gaza Strip was ordered, as they were being moved, in fact, to likely new fronts of struggle. It would also make more sense to see the succession of attacks and individual murders, in recent days, of some important leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, committed in a concentrated and successive manner, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and even within the territory of Iran. .

Attacks committed simultaneously with the deployment of Israeli troops from Gaza, and with a series of extremely provocative interviews given by the most right-wing ministers of the Benjamin Netanyahu government, proposing the expulsion of the Palestinians from their own land. At first glance, they could appear to be separate and disconnected acts, but the simultaneity of the facts and the succession of statements by the Jewish authorities, and of the attacks and chosen places, suggest a strong “elective affinity” with the hypothesis of an “intentional provocation” in search of of a violent response that could mobilize United States support for the expansion of the war, with its permission for a massive Israeli attack against Lebanon and Iran.

In any case, if this hypothesis is true and this was Benjamin Netanyahu's ultimate objective, it seems that something unexpected came along the way: the fall in the popularity of North American President Joe Biden, who intends to be re-elected in 2024 and realizes that is losing the support of significant sectors of its electorate, thanks to its unconditional positioning on the side of Israel.

Likewise, everything indicates that the Israeli government is already redoing its calculations, realizing that the continuation of this war of extermination could help the election of Donald Trump, and the election of Donald Trump could be Benjamin Netanyahu's “lifeline”. and his government, and perhaps even his long-cherished project of attacking and destroying Iran's military capacity. A government, in fact, that was already under threat of dismissal before October 8, 2023, when the the “incomprehensible blackout” of Israel's information system, considered one of the best information systems in the world.

In any case, whatever the correct interpretation of events, one thing is certain: at this moment, the picture is open and the possibilities are multiple, but almost all alternatives point to the continuation of the bombers and the “aerial genocide” of Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip. Unless the United States decides to overthrow Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

* Jose Luis Fiori He is professor emeritus at UFRJ. Author, among other books, of Global power and the new geopolitics of nations (Boitempo) []

Originally published on International Observatory of the XNUMXst Century, no. 3.


[I] “Behold the day of Yahweh, which cometh relentlessly, and with it the fierce anger of wrath, making the land a desolation, and cutting off the fishermen from it…Everyone that is found will be pierced; whoever is caught will fall by the sword. Your children will be torn to pieces before their eyes, their houses will be plundered and their women raped…The bows will prostrate the children; they will not pity the little children, their eyes will not spare the little children. So Babylon, the pearl among kingdoms, the adornment and pride of the Chaldeans, will be like Sodom and like Gomorrah, which were brought to ruin by God” Isaiah, 13-14, Jerusalem Bible, Edições Paulinas, São Paulo, 1980, p : 1381.

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