Geopolitics of the war in Gaza

Gaza Strip / Reproduction Telegram
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By JOHN HELMER*

In practical politics, Israel and the United States either quickly win their genocidal war now, or else lose the long war

At this stage of the war, the American-Israeli push for genocidal slaughter and displacement of Palestinians from Gaza appears to be winning. Not so much on the ground, but in the agreement of its Western allies to provide the logistics, pay the bills and endorse the morality of the crimes.

By the time William Shakespeare adopted the idea that force can compel consent, the maxim he popularized had already been expressed in English two hundred years ago. In “All’s Well That Ends Well,” he has the Countess of Rousillon ask her buffoon why he wants to get married. He replies: “My poor body, madam, demands this: I am moved by the flesh; and he needs to follow because the devil commands”. Usually little is remembered about this famous passage in which the jester explained that he had “other sacred reasons”. The Countess liked hearing them even less, and so she sent him off the stage.

In the operations in Gaza so far, and in the ideology that Israeli authorities and journalists are reiterating to the Western media, the devil intends to lead all Palestinians, born and unborn, to their deaths. In a war of this type, the first need for Hamas and the Arabs is to survive to continue fighting. Nothing is more certain than the “sacred reasons” Shakespeare put into the mouth of Lavatch the jester that surviving to fight the long war will ultimately defeat this devil’s needs.

In practical politics, Israel and the United States either quickly win their genocidal war now, or else lose the long war. Russian military sources are reporting that the United States is resupplying the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at the rate of two US Air Force (USAF) transports per hour, moving from the continental United States through bases in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Greece and Cyprus. North American sources acknowledged that the logistical effort is too great to continue for long. At this time, the US Navy and USAF cannot continue to fulfill the promised resupply of Ukrainian forces in their war against Russia, while at US bases in Syria and Iraq, the Pentagon is privately evacuating troops, while ostensibly trying to attack their Arab aggressors.

Arab, Iranian and Russian media outlets are reporting that, in response, Hamas and Hezbollah are maintaining a steady rate of fire against the IDF and Israeli territorial targets. They are not attacking the platforms yet offshoreand gas production plants in Israel, which provide most of the fuel for the country's electricity production plants. They are not yet decommissioning Israel's ports and airports. The Russian military assessment is that, for now, the capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah remain intact and in reserve. The Arab side is exercising restraint.

What then are the needs that must now be addressed by the Palestinians' allies, the Arab states, Iran and then Russia?

On Sunday, October 29th, Russia officially called this war “American project”. This followed the vote at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) the previous Friday, when the United States and Israel led a small minority in their position in favor of their short war, which included, in addition to Paraguay and some others, half a dozen island states that are slowly sinking in the Pacific Ocean.

A Moscow source confirms that the United States is also Russia's priority target here, because the IDF will not be able to continue in Gaza as American capabilities are exhausted. This source believes that excessive US effort in the Middle East will accelerate the movement of the Russian military to the offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield and thus shorten this other war.

Public statements for mediation between the conflicting parties issued by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry are not the complete story of Russia, the source believes. The first need in Lavrov's mediation, he says, is between the Russian General Staff and the Kremlin. The second priority is to allow the Americans to demonstrate their weakness throughout the region by keeping the Palestinians in place, deterring Egyptian and Jordanian concessions, and preventing a direct attack on Iran.

Says the source: “The real Russian position, not the public statements, ultimately boils down to the level of military cooperation the Ministry of Defense has with Tehran. The wars in Syria and Ukraine have made this very profound. I hope the Foreign Office's public line changes when the number of Palestinian victims reaches 20. As official Israeli statements against the Russian government already make clear, they know what goes on behind the scenes. Now, it is no longer just Muslims in the Caucasus, but the majority of Russians who feel that there has been too much support for Israel. Sergei Lavrov will make use of this.”

“I would say that the real work now in Moscow is to ensure that the Americans do not directly attack Iran. The rest will happen according to the General Staff script, which Lavrov may already have (and probably has) in front of him. To sum it up, you can call it a long war.”

*John Helmer is an Australian journalist, graduated from Harvard and residing in Russia. Author, among other books, of Dunce upon a time: autobiography of mistakes.

Translation: Ricardo Cavalcanti-Schiel.

Originally published on author's blog.


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