By LUIZ CÉSAR MARQUES FILHO*
The future will be worse; without peace, it will be terminal
President Joe Biden has just sent a proposal for additional military spending to the United States Congress, including: US$61,4 billion for Ukraine (half for armaments), US$14,3 billion for Israel, US$10,6, 7,4 billion of which is also spent on weapons and US$XNUMX billion for the Indo-Pacific zone. Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden's national security advisor, said that the war in Ukraine and the Middle East represents “a global inflection point”,[1] confirming his country's growing involvement on multiple fronts of war.
Meanwhile, deaths and suffering increase. In Ukraine, estimates from August 2023 by the US government speak of 500 deaths and injuries among military personnel on both sides alone.[2] Wars and chronic geopolitical instability in the Middle East will persist and will only increase because the State of Israel now illegally occupies a much larger portion than the approximately 55% of the area of historic Palestine granted to it by the UN in November 1947.[3] The blockade of the Gaza Strip, in force since 2007, makes this territory, in the opinion of the Human Rights Watch, “the largest open-air prison in the world”. The International Committee of the Red Cross considers it illegal, as it violates the Geneva Conventions.[4]
In this concentrationary context, the “doctrine” of the Israeli reaction to the Hamas attacks on October 7 consists of dehumanizing the Palestinians. It was explained on October 9 by Yoav Gallant, Israel's Minister of Defense: “We are fighting against human animals and acting accordingly.”[5] According to data from Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, between October 7th and 15th the Israeli army killed a Palestinian every ten minutes. Of the more than 2.300 Palestinian victims killed to that date, 724 were children (40% of the population in Gaza is under 14 years old). According to Jonathan Crickx, spokesperson for Unicef Palestine, as of October 15, there were also 2.400 injured Palestinians and 240 displaced.[6]
By October 22, 15 days after the outbreak of the conflict, Israeli bombings in the Gaza Strip had caused 5.087 deaths, more than 13.400 injuries, with around 1,4 million refugees surviving in brutal conditions and, moreover, also under bombings. On Saturday and Sunday alone, October 21st and 22nd, at least 400 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, with Israeli bombings on the Jabalia refugee camp (more than 116 refugees) on October 9th, 12th, 19th and 22nd. , killed at least 175 people.[7]
Nothing justifies the death of 1.300 Israelis by Hamas militants. But here it is a desperate reaction against the policy of the State of Israel, armed by the USA and the European Union, which unfailingly support them in their enterprise of expulsion, arrests, torture and mass murders. A recent UN report estimates that, since 1967, the State of Israel has crammed around one million Palestinians into its dungeons, that is, one in every five Palestinians, and for the male population this proportion is two in every five. And the conditions of these prisons are identical to those of the most heinous dictatorships in the world: “Confinement in filthy and crowded cells, deprivation of sleep and food, medical neglect, severe and prolonged beatings and other forms of ill-treatment were widespread. documented.”[8]
If there is one dossier that proves, above a thousand others, the failure of the UN, that dossier is called Israel. This is not about blaming the UN, but about profoundly reforming it, to strengthen and democratize it. The revision of its Charter is provided for in its Article 109 and the installation of a UN Constituent Assembly will need, to begin with, to suppress the veto right of the five members of its Security Council and recognize its General Assembly as the supreme decision-making body .[9]
Military expenditure proves that the world is already at war
That said, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, whose potential to spread is increasing, are just the tip of the iceberg. The US reaction to the 2001 twin tower attack is the inaugural milestone of an emerging state of widespread war: “after 11/2001 [4,5], the total number of deaths in the war zones of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen may be at least 4,7 to XNUMX million people and continuing to rise, although the exact number of deaths remains unknown.”[10]
In fact, more than 110 armed conflicts globally have been monitored by Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights. “Most of them are non-international conflicts (NIAC), involving armed non-state actors and foreign interventions by Western powers, Russia and neighboring countries.”[11] The international scene is increasingly infected by regressive nationalism and returns to war rhetoric. China and Russia are authoritarian regimes and imperialist powers that offer no alternative to overcoming capitalism.
China, in particular, is the most extreme and current expression of globalized capitalism. In this capacity, it is the great promoter of global neo-extractivism and Brazilian agribusiness and is the most insatiable devourer of coal in the world (56% of global consumption in 2020). In turn, Vladimir Putin, former head of the former KGB, has long been the great reference of the European extreme right (Viktor Orbán, Matteo Salvini, Marine Le Pen, Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia, Robert Fico in Slovakia, as well as several leaders of alternative for Germany in Germany).
Faced with this reality, which must be criticized but cannot be suppressed, the West seems to be seized with senile warrior dementia as it loses global hegemony. With his narcissistic and self-complacent narratives, he ridicules himself by representing himself as an existentially threatened vestal, so that every NATO war or war preparation against Russia and China (this new “axis of evil”) is considered legitimate by him. , since “defensive”. Nothing could be more in line with facts and intelligence, as NATO is a brutally expansive and offensive military alliance, and Russia has plenty of reasons, historical and current, to feel threatened.
From this confrontation mechanism, the Report of the Stockholm Institute Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) offers a good summary:[12] “In 2022, global security has seen a marked deterioration compared to a decade ago. Worldwide, there have been more wars, greater military spending, and increased acute food insecurity. As a result of climate change, heat waves, droughts and floods have affected millions of people, with greater human and economic costs. International stability has been under pressure from the war in Ukraine and the intensification of confrontation between the great powers, which has weakened arms control and made diplomacy less effective. (…) The total number of States in armed conflict was 56, that is, five more than in 2021”.
There is an essential (although not exhaustive) answer to the question of the meaning of this escalation of war and famine: follow, as always, the money. War is good for business, “war is good for business,” said an executive at the global arms trade fair in London, the Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI), which took place in September 2023, always strongly supported by the UK Ministry of Defense, which opened the event.[13] And Michael Elmore, sales director at MTL Advanced, a major armored vehicle producer, added: “We are extremely busy.”[14]
In 2022, North American corporations that are leaders in the global arms market, such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumann and General Dynamics, had the best performances among the ten largest global arms corporations, in terms of the appreciation of their shares and capitalization of market.[15] The Ukraine war in particular has been excellent for Western business. According to a McKinsey report, Russian arms exports fell by 21% in the first year of the Ukraine war, which opened up new opportunities for Western arms sales to countries in the so-called “developing world".[16]
The wars of our day are not (if they ever were) a continuation of politics. They are a continuation of the business. Irving Berlin composed the song for Hollywood, There's no business like show business. If he were alive, he would write today There's no business like war business.[17] In fact, fueled by the congressional-industrial-military complex and billion-dollar disinformation campaigns, national military budgets grow incessantly. According to SIPRI, in 2019 they reached US$1.917 billion, an increase of 3,8% compared to 2018 and the largest increase in a decade. In 2021, they increased by 12% compared to 2012, reaching US$2.113 billion.[18]
And the upward trajectory continues:[19] “World military expenditure increased by 3,7% in real terms in 2022, reaching a record US$2.240 billion. Global military spending grew 19% during the decade 2013–2022 and has increased every year since 2015. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a major driver of this spending in 2022. Military spending in Europe increased 13%, the largest annual increase in total European military expenditure in the post-Cold War period”.
A Figure 1 shows the evolution of these global military expenses between 1988 and 2022 in constant 2021 dollars, broken down by five regions of the planet.
<https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf>.
In 2022, military budgets have nearly doubled the average for the 1995-1999 period (in constant 2021 dollars). The five countries with the largest military budgets – the USA, China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia – account for 63% of global expenditure. In 2019, the US military budget was $732 billion.[20] In 2022, it jumped to US$877 billion, an increase of 19,9% compared to 2019. It currently represents 3,5% of the country's GDP and 39% of global military expenditure, for a GDP that in 2022 amounted to 25,3 .292% of global GDP. The second largest national budget, China's ($1,6 billion), consumes “only” 13% of its GDP and represents 18% of global military expenditure for a GDP that today reaches 28% of global GDP. But it is important to highlight, on the other hand, that China's military expenditure has been increasing for XNUMX consecutive years, the longest uninterrupted increase in a country, according to the SIPRI database.
A Figure 2 allows observing the percentage distribution of global military expenses in 2022, breaking down the 15 largest national budgets.
<https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf>.
According to SIPRI, the US captured 40% of global arms exports in the period 2018-2022. It is more than the combined exports of the other four largest global arms exporters, Russia, France, China and Germany. In total, these five countries are responsible for 76% of these global exports during this period.
The growing risk of nuclear war
The specter of nuclear war is emerging today in an even more threatening way than in the crises of 1962 and 1983.[21] António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, stated in February 2023, “we are at the greatest risk in decades of a nuclear war that could start by accident or design.”[22] The Doomsday Clock, published annually by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, reinforces this warning.
Figure 3 represents the minutes, and recently the seconds, that separate humanity from a terminal nuclear war, with midnight, figuratively, being the fateful moment of this outbreak. In 2022, the world is 100 seconds away from midnight. In 2023, scientists have advanced that hand to 90 seconds from midnight. Since 2010, humanity has steadily moved towards greater probabilities of a nuclear winter. There are at least four indicators of this progress: (1) increased investment in nuclear arsenals; (2) end of nuclear arms limitation agreements, (3) increase in warheads on high alert and (4) the recent return to nuclear testing by the US and, soon, Russia.
According to SIPRI estimates, at the beginning of 2023, nuclearized countries collectively possessed around 12.512 nuclear weapons, of which 9.576 were considered potentially operationally available. An estimated 3.844 of these warheads were deployed (deployed) in operational forces, around two thousand of which were in a state of maximum operational alert (“state of high operational alert”). The number of operational warheads is again on the rise, reflecting the development of extensive and costly replacement and modernization programs for warheads, missiles, aircraft and submarine launches, as well as the industrial facilities that manufacture them.
Projections reported by SIPRI suggest that China will deploy at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia and the US over the next decade: “As of January 2023, the US maintains a military arsenal of approximately 3.708 nuclear warheads, the same number as last year. Approximately 1.770 of these – consisting of about 1.670 strategic warheads and about 100 non-strategic (tactical) warheads – were deployed on ballistic missile and bomber bases.”
Also as of January 2023, Russia maintains a military stockpile of about 4.489 nuclear warheads, an increase of about 12 warheads over the January 2022 estimate. About 2.673 of these are strategic warheads, 1.674 land-deployed on missiles sea-based and bomber-based. Russia also then possessed around 1.816 tactical nuclear warheads.
Emmanuel Todd titled his latest book, published in Japan with enormous success, The Third World War has already begun.[23] In this context, the gestation of a nuclear war is evolving rapidly. Let’s align some facts in chronological order. In February 2023, Russia suspended the treaty on the reduction and limitation of strategic nuclear weapons (New START), the last system of diplomatic control of these arsenals signed with the USA in 2010.[24] “I feel compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation” in New START, said Vladimir Putin in a state of the nation address, clarifying that his country's return to this or another similar treaty presupposes that the US ends its military support for Ukraine and brings France and the UK into negotiations on nuclear arms control.[25]
New START was supposed to expire on February 5, 2026, but the Ukraine war caused its premature demise. Russia and the US stopped sharing detailed information about their arsenals and banned reciprocal inspections provided for in that treaty.[26] Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, stated in this regard that “any positive signals or concessions on issues raised by the United States in the context of compliance with New START will be unjustified, untimely and inappropriate until Washington reviews its hostile policy towards Russia and abandon its line of creating threats to our national security.”[27]
In March 2023, Belarus, a country bordering Ukraine and three NATO countries (Poland, Lithuania and Latvia), began receiving tactical nuclear weapons from Russia. In June, Alexander Lukashenko, president of that country, declared:[28] “We have missiles and bombs that we received from Russia, three times more powerful than those launched on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There, more than 80 thousand people died instantly, 250 thousand in total. That's it, with just one pump and ours are three times more powerful. If we use them, God forbid, no, I don’t know, up to a million people would die.”
In August, the UN Secretary-General reiterated once again that “humanity is one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.”[29] In September, the CNN published satellite photos showing that the US, China and Russia are building new facilities and digging new tunnels at their former nuclear test sites (Nevada, Xinjiang and an Arctic archipelago, respectively).
These are indications of the resumption of tests interrupted by the 1992 moratorium, which Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the USA, moreover, never ratified. In fact, on October 18, 2023, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the USA admitted to having carried out a nuclear test in Nevada, at subcritical levels (without nuclear fission), in order to “improve the United States' ability to detect low-yield nuclear explosions around the world”.[30] That same day, Russia's Parliament ratified the country's withdrawal from Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.[31] The path is now legally open for the resumption of nuclear testing not just by Russia, but by the nine nuclearized countries.
War, accelerator of environmental collapse
Today, war is, above all, an accelerator of the ongoing environmental collapse and this for two reasons. Firstly, it increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, intensifying the destabilization of the climate system. Estimates of GHG emissions associated with the military sphere are extremely lacking. Much data is not accessible because the 2015 Paris Agreement stipulates that the inclusion of emissions from the war machine in national inventories is not mandatory.
That said, available data shows that emissions associated with the military sphere correspond to 5,5% of global emissions! If annual global military expenditure were a country, that “country” would be the fourth largest GHG emitter on the planet, after China, the US and India.[32] The Ukrainian war alone emitted, in its first 12 months, 119 million tons of GHG (MtCO2e), the equivalent of Belgium's annual emissions.[33] If there is no peace, in February 2024 these emissions, maintaining the current trajectory, will cumulatively exceed those of Spain in 2021 (233 MtCO2is).
The second way in which war accelerates the ongoing process of socio-environmental collapse is to make global climate and biodiversity governance even more difficult. COP28 will be hosted, within a month, in a Middle East incandescent with wars, threats and growing geopolitical tensions. In such an environment, does anyone believe that China, the USA, India and Russia, the four largest emitters on the planet, will come to the table to negotiate the reduction of emissions resulting from the production and consumption of fossil fuels? If they never did this in times of peace, imagine now! The neutrality of the majority of countries in the global South in relation to the invasion of Ukraine also exacerbated the resentment of NATO countries, one more ingredient, among many, to explain the recent failure of negotiations on climate losses and damages for the most vulnerable countries, stipulated at COP27.[34]
The triumph of stupidity
Migrant workers in Abu Dhabi are working in high-risk temperatures (42 oC in September) in the construction of COP28 facilities. In this and other cities in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, temperatures unbearable for humans are already occurring and will occur more in the future.[35] And given that war only accelerates this trajectory, the stupidity is obvious: the Israelis invade and occupy territories that will increasingly be subject to temperatures that exceed the thermal regulation capacity of humans (49,9 oC in Israel, in July 2019).
The same occurs in Ukraine, Russia and Europe in general, which are increasingly threatened by heat waves, fires, water shortages and floods. The European continent as a whole is in the process of becoming climate unviable, as it is warming twice as fast as global average warming. Since 1991, it has been warming at the rate of 0,5 oC per decade and this average warming in 2022 is already +2,3 (± 0,2) oC above the pre-industrial period.[36] Every 20 years, therefore, Europe will warm at least 1 more oC on average above current warming. Does it seem reasonable that Europeans would prefer to hasten their ruin by fomenting a war that brings them no benefit?
Peace and general disarmament are the conditions for the possibility of climate negotiations capable of increasing our chances of adapting to the coming warming. Those who consider this appeal to be complicity with the “axis of evil” or, at best, naivety and “good guyism” do not understand that the war on climate will very soon claim more victims than current bombs. And in this war, there are no winners. There is only the triumph of stupidity. Those who still accept war today lack the perception of the abyss.
A report by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) compares disasters that occurred in the years 1980-1999 with those that occurred in the years 2000-2019.[37] The number of extreme heat waves that occurred in 2000-2019 is more than triple those that occurred in the period 1980-1999. Flooding has more than doubled; forest fires increased by 46%; hurricanes increased by 42% and droughts increased by 28%, always comparing the two periods.
In these 20 years (2000 – 2019), these disasters killed more than 1,2 million people and impacted around 4,2 billion people, many of them more than once, with more than 90% of these disasters being related, one way or another, with the climate emergency. The impacts of the next twenty years will be much worse and the headlines and newspaper photos from 2022 and 2023, showing dry rivers and large lakes, people succumbing to the heat or stranded by floods, animal deaths, forests, charred houses and vehicles, offer a pale preview of what awaits us. El Niño and the anomalously high temperatures in the North Atlantic are just further aggravating factors in this systemic catastrophe, exploding in a (still) slow motion.
There is a synergy of crises that feed on each other, which are affecting the lives of entire populations and killing almost as many as wars. In Europe, for example, estimates are that 61.672 people died from excess heat between May 30 and September 4, 2022 alone.[38] In the US, over the past two decades, heat-related mortality for the elderly has almost doubled, reaching a record of around 19.000 deaths in 2018, with such deaths increasing by 56% in 2021 compared to 2018.[39] Evidently, as Meghan Bartels states, “heat deaths in the US will rise as the climate crisis worsens.”[40]
In Asia, Africa and Latin America, despite deficient data, this picture of illnesses and deaths due to climate extremes must be the same or worse. We are already globally condemned, in any case and in any scenario, to an average global warming of 2 oC above the pre-industrial period, which will be reached in the second quarter of this century.[41] There will still be time to contain warming below 3 oC?
Perhaps yes, if we act with the utmost promptness and radicality, starting with the demand for peace. Certainly none, if we continue to ignore, or act as if we ignore, the socio-environmental collapse into which societies are heading, while the arms industry prospers. The current decade is the last in which we will still be able to act in such a way that the future is only worse (this is already inevitable), but not terminal.
* Luiz Cesar Marques Filho He is a professor at the Department of History at Unicamp. Author, among other books, of Capitalism and environmental collapse (Unicamp).
Originally published on Journal of Unicamp.
Notes
[1] See Chris Megerian & Mary Clare Jalonick, “Biden asks Congress to secure $105 billion for Ukraine, Israel, the border and more”. AP, 20/X/2023.
[2] Cf. “Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukrainian War Near 500,000, US Officials Say”. The New York Times, 18/VIII/2023; Faustine Vincent, “The secret carnage of military losses in Ukraine”. Le Monde, 24/VIII/2023; Andrew Roth, “Battlefield deaths in Ukraine have risen sharply this year, say US officials”. The Guardian, 18/2023/XNUMX.
[3] For a summary summary of this grant and its developments since 1948, cf. “The UN Partition Plan for Palestine”. Institute for Middle East Understanding, 27/XI/2012.
[4] Cf. “The history of the Gaza Strip, which Palestinians consider 'the largest open-air prison' in the world”. with the BBC, 10/X/2023.
[5] See Sanjana Karanth, “Israeli Defense Minister Announces Siege On Gaza To Fight 'Human Animals'.” HuffPost, 9/X/2023
[6] See Chiara Cruciati, “Mai un numero così alto di bambini uccisi em una setimana”. The poster, 15/X/2023.
[7] Cf. “Gaza death toll surges to 4,218, over 13,400 injured”. Palestine News & Info Agency, 20/X/2023; Bethan McKerman, “Israel hits Gaza with one of deadliest bombings so far in war against Hamas,” The Guardian, 23/X/2023; Wikipedia, “Jabalia refugee camp airstrikes.”
[8] Cf. Francesca Albanese (Special Rapporteur), “Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967”. United Nations, Human Rights Council, 53a session 19/VI–14/VII/2023 Agenda item 7 Human Rights situation in Palestine and other occupied Arab territories.
[9] See Caetano Scannavino, Luiz Marques & Oded Grajew, “For global climate governance”. Folha de São Paulo, 23/VI/2023.
[10] See Stephanie Savell, How Death Outlives War, The Reverberating Impact of the Post 9/11 Wars on Human Health, Costs of Wars, Watson Institute International & Public Affairs, Brown University, 23/V/2023.
<https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2023/Indirect%20Deaths.pdf>.
[11] Cf. Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights: “Our Rule of Law in Armed Conflict Online Portal (RULAC) classifies all situations of armed violence that amount to an armed conflict under international humanitarian law. Today it monitors more than 110 armed conflicts”.
[12] See Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2023. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, SIPRI, 2023.https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-06/yb23_summary_en_0.pdf>.
[13] Cf. “Deputy Commander Strategic Command speaks at the DSEI 2023 Launch”. Gov.UK
<https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deputy-commander-strategic-command-speaks-at-the-dsei-2023-launch>.
[14] See Brett Wilkins, “'War Is Good for Business', declares Executive at London's Global Arms Fair”. Common Dreams, 15/IX/2023.
[15] See Transnational Institute inhttps://twitter.com/TNInstitute/status/1650404117062328320>.
[16] See Peter Apps, “At London arms fair, global war fears are good for business”. Reuters, 15/IX/2023.
[17] Cf. William J. Astore, “There's No Business Like War Business”. Bracing Views, 7/VI/2021.
<https://bracingviews.com/2021/06/07/theres-no-business-like-war-business/>.
[18] See Stockholm Institute Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2021”.
<https://www.sipri.org/publications/2022/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2021>.
[19] See SIPRI, “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2022”. Fact Check, April 2023.
<https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf>.
[20] See Govind Bhutada, “The US Share of the Global Economy Over Time”. VisualCapitalist, 14/I/2021.
[21] Cf. Dmitry D. Adamsky, “The 1983 Nuclear Crisis – Lessons for Deterrence Theory and Practice”. Journal of Strategic Studies, 36, 8/II/2013.
[22] Cf. “'We are at the greatest risk in decades of a nuclear war', warns the UN secretary-general”. The Reference, 7/II/2023.
[23] See “La Troisième Guerre Mondiale a commencé: l'escalade en Ukraine va tout changer”. Interview for the Élucid channel.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUD1gxEWxE&t=2291s>.
[24] This is the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START), which placed a ceiling on the number of strategic nuclear weapons of the two countries, projected new reductions and allowed reciprocal inspections in situ to verify compliance.
[25] See Shannon Bugos, “Russia Suspends New START”. Arms Control Association, March 2023: “I am compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation” in New START etc.
<https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-03/news/russia-suspends-new-start>.
[26] Cf. “START treaty: Russia stops sending nuclear weapons information to US”. Al-Jazeera, 30/III/2023.
[27] See Shannon Bugos, (cit.) Lavrov, on February 8, 2023.
<https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-03/news/russia-suspends-new-start>.
[28] See Lidia Kelly & Andrew Osborn, “Belarus starts taking delivery of Russian nuclear weapons”. Reuters, 14/VI/2023.
[29] Cf. “Humanity is one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation, says UN secretary general”. Price, 1/2022/XNUMX.
[30] Cf. “National Nuclear Security Administration NNSA conducts experiment to improve US ability to detect foreign nuclear explosions”. 18/X/2023
[31] Cf. Isabel van Brugen, “US May Have Given Russia Green Light to Test Nuclear Weapons”. Newsweek, 20/X/2023.
[32] See Stuart Parkinson & Linsey Cottrell, “Estimating the Military's Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Scientists for Global Responsibility and Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS). November 2022.
<https://ceobs.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/SGR-CEOBS_Estimating_Global_MIlitary_GHG_Emissions.pdf>.
[33] Cf. Lennard de Klerk et al., “Climate Damage Caused by Russia's War in Ukraine 24 February 2022 – 23 February 2023”. Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine”.
<https://climatefocus.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/clim-damage-by-russia-war-12months.pdf>.
[34] Cf. Climate 'loss and damage' talks end in failure”. The Hindu, 21/X/2023.
[35] Cf. “Killer Heat: The impact of extreme temperatures and climate change on Migrant Workers in the Gulf”. Vital Signs, Report 3, June 2023.
[36] See “State of the Climate in Europe 2022”. WMO, no. 1320, Copernicus, 2023
[37] Cf. “Human cost of disasters. An overview of the last 20 years. 2000-2019”. UNDRR & CRED, Center for Research of Epidemiology of Disasters, 2020.
[38] Cf. Joan Ballester et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022”. Nature Medicine, 29, 10/VII/2023, pp. 1857-1866.
[39] Cf. “The state of climate change and health in the United States”. Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change. December 2020; Maggie Davis, “Heat-Related Deaths Up 56% Between 2018 and 2021, Provisional Data Shows,” ValuePenguin, 6/VI/2022.
[40] See Meghan Bartels, “US Heat Deaths Will Soar as the Climate Crisis Worsens”. Scientific American magazine, 28/IX/2023.
[41] See James Hansen, Makiko Sato & Pushker Kharecha, “November Temperature Update and the Big Climate Short”. Earth Institute, 23/XII/2021http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/>.
