War in Ukraine – what next?



Russia will continue to do what it is doing by holding the reserve until it decides the time has come to end the war.

I don't know what the Russians are going to do in Ukraine, nor does anyone outside their high command. But in this regard, surely many wrong predictions have appeared. Western propaganda mill aside, serious observers seem to have missed the point. We know that the correlation of forces favors Russia, but we hope that things will happen more quickly. We agree that Moscow expected something shorter, less bloody and faster at the beginning and was probably surprised by the resistance of the Kiev regime and the malicious support of NATO. Therefore, there was a reassessment and the call-up of more forces. So far we are in agreement – ​​we seem to have misunderstood the timing of the next step.

I have been thinking about the reason for this and have come to the following conclusions. Right now, everyone watching knows that the battlefield of Ukraine is part of a world war in which those who control the American empire are trying to maintain their dominance. For those outside the NATO propaganda bubble, there is general agreement that: (i) Russia is winning both on the Ukrainian battlefield and in the wider theatre; (ii) time is on Russia's side.

First, the Ukrainian battlefield. The first objective in war is to destroy the enemy's power, and that is what Russia is doing, especially in Bakhmut's slaughterhouse. Kiev is determined to stand and fight there, and the Russians are quite happy to let them do that – "the artillery conquers and the infantry occupies” –, is what we see here. Slowly, Russian forces advance over mountains of Ukrainian bodies. In the last week or so, Russian forces have begun to advance on other fronts as well. This grinding can continue until Ukraine collapses, because it is easier for the Russians to let the enemy come to them than to go after them. Meanwhile, Russian missiles destroy the infrastructure Kiev needs to continue the war. Time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” moves.

On top of the larger war, the sanctions that were supposed to have crushed Russia have boomeranged back and we've read headlines like “Inflation in Europe is falling but food prices are rising"And hypothermia deaths in England. Inflation is decreasing because demand is decreasing and demand is decreasing because companies are stopping due to fuel prices. Germany's Eurozone Economic Activity Index (PMI) is in decline.

No one (apart from the bubble dwellers in NATO) should be surprised – sanctioned the biggest exporter of energy, the biggest exporter of cereals and a major exporter of potash, did you expect prices to fall? Everything needs energy and everyone needs food. NATO unity fluctuates with Türkiye, Sweden and Finland. Hungary officially observes the suffering of Hungarians in Ukraine. The partition of Ukraine was considered. Emmanuel Macron suspects the US is intentionally undermining its European allies. Did Washington just convince Berlin to go first – when exactly will the Abrams tanks get there? NATO is now stepping into its active resources (Estonia joins Denmark in sending all its artillery). (And, not that anyone is asking, who blew up Nord Stream?) Riots and protests across Europe. What's happening in Kiev? The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia's enemies become. Thus, in the big war, time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” moves.

So Russia should keep doing what it's doing and keep the big force in reserve - there's no reason to change anything - it's rubbing its enemies.



How crazy will NATO get? Your strategy is a complete failure. To the "crippling sanctions” did not collapse the Russian economy, overthrow Putin or cause the population to revolt. On the contrary – when Economist have to admit that Russia "did much better than expected”, you know she is really thriving. The wonder weapons – Bayraktars, Javelins, M777s, HIMARS, Gepards, Patriots and now tanks – only prolonged Ukraine's suffering and made Wagner and Akhmat Sila the best urban fighters in the world. What comes next? Can NATO reverse itself? Can he survive another defeat? Or, as Larry wonders, drive straight into the Grand Canyon? What new madness will arise when the tanks fail? (Can you imagine how the gossips of refrigerators will be upset if these things work? CNN is concerned – “Think Russian President Vladimir Putin's propaganda victory if pictures emerge of disabled US tanks on a Ukrainian battlefield").

Therefore, I believe that the Russian high command is in a loop decision continuum. Every morning he considers whether to continue the current strategy or initiate the “big arrow” move to end this situation before NATO does something hopelessly stupid. It's a careful balancing process.

In short, the Russian High Command will continue to do what it is doing and hold the reserve until it decides the time has come to end it. And that's a decision only he can make based on information only he can know.

So maybe the “big arrow” offensive starts tomorrow, or maybe it never needs to start.

*Helmholtz-Smith is a journalist.

Translation: Fernando Lima das Neves.

Originally published on the website A son of the new american revolution.


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