By PIETRO BASSO*
Donald Trump's America will not give gifts, assuming that Uncle Sam has given them in other times, under other presidencies. It will sow chaos and war throughout the world.
1.
We repeat ourselves, unfortunately. But it seems indispensable because not even Donald Trump’s latest press conference, even if so explicit, is being taken truly seriously. The histrionics taken to the extreme by this great trash-man can be misleading. But it is worth keeping in mind another unlimited histrionics, the reasoning “delirium” of a Hitler (or a Mussolini – considering the due proportions) to realize that in times of looming new global war, such as our times, resorting to propaganda about the need for confrontation, for war without limits and without rules against one’s own enemies, is – for the ruling class of the imperialist countries – essential.
In times like these, it is a question, after all, of throwing large masses of exploited and oppressed people into conflicts in which they could lose everything that is dear to them, in the interests of their exploiters and oppressors. It is a question of motivating them (not just forcing them) to accept every kind of sacrifice, to sow death and destruction against themselves, to become co-responsible for a terrible mass homicide-suicide.
Therefore, it is essential, in order to better mask the real content of the confrontations in preparation, to resort to demagogy, lies, the shameless manipulation of reality, the exaltation of identity myths, a Tradition – true or false – made of glories, the promise of future greatness/glory (the obsessive again Trumpian), to the racism displayed and claimed, to the “manly” need for force, violence, brutality, including the most gratuitous brutality, with the request for devotion to charismatic leaders, and fidelity to discipline, hierarchy, country and family as eternal natural and vital forces. In the midst of scenes of this kind, in which the ridiculous and the tragic are mixed to the point of becoming one, someone like Donald Trump does very well.
But after all, what did Donald Trump say that was so irrational?
To recover the ground lost over the decades in direct value production, the United States would need to incorporate Canada as a state and treat Mexico as a colony, also to prevent both from becoming – as they partly are – guest platforms for the production of value by Chinese capital. To confront the semi-monopoly of rare earths currently held by China and to impose its own control over new shipping routes that the imminent ecological catastrophe is creating, the annexation of Greenland would be a true masterstroke.
To relaunch the US arms industry, both traditional and new (computer and space networks), the allies would need to increase their purchases from US companies – immediately, without exception. He did not say it, but he knows perfectly well (along with his entire entourage of advisors and collaborators): all of this is essential to prevent the uncontrollable explosion of the class, racial, gender, territorial and value contradictions that in recent years have given rise to the resurgence of workers' strikes and the flame of the women's movement. Feminism for the 99%, to the movement (not just black) Black Lives Matter, to multiple autonomist impulses and cultural wars. At the time, the promise to carry out the “largest deportation” of immigrants undocumented (undocumented) of American history, remained in the shadows, but it was so much the battle horse of his electoral campaign that it was not necessary to reiterate it again, especially when he was addressing the outside world.
2.
This is a perfectly rational program to “make America great again” by reversing its long decline as a hegemonic power. We are talking, of course, about the “rationality” inherent in an increasingly intrinsically irrational capitalist system, which can only survive the exhaustion of its historical function by producing violence and devastation on a planetary scale, with the sole purpose of preserving the pursuit of profit as the regulatory law of social reproduction and the relationship with non-human nature.
It doesn't matter whether Donald Trump has personal knowledge of this or not; he has certainly absorbed the lesson historian Paul Kennedy laid out in Rise and Decline of the Great Powers: in history, productive vitality is, as a rule, a fundamental factor in the rise of great powers, where the consolidation of excessively diffuse economic and territorial interests, with the relative diplomatic-military commitment to protect them, ends up, over time, eroding and undermining the productive vitality that was at the origin of power: “economic well-being does not always and immediately translate into military efficiency, since the latter depends on many other factors, from geography to national morale, tactical and command competence. However, the fact remains that all major changes in the military and power balances in the world had behind them changes in productive balances; and that, furthermore, the rise and fall of the various empires and states in the international system was confirmed by the successes in the major wars between the great powers, in which victory always went to those with greater material resources”.
The chronic – and gigantic – trade deficit of the United States, its persistence after the adoption of protectionist policies of the last decade, and the parallel deficit of the balance of payments, faced with a speculative situation of the strategic enemy that is China that has lasted twenty years, configure that the “existential risk” of no longer being “great”, superpower, which the American ruling class wants to distance itself from. Both through the Democrats and through the Republicans.
Equally rational is the “provocative” way in which Donald Trump has presented his program, which imitated Netanyahu’s presentation of the “new map of the Middle East” without Palestine, made in October 2023 at the UN General Assembly. In both cases the message is: we will do it, whatever the cost, you must deal with it, we have the strength to do it. The intimidating capacity of such a speech lies in the simple fact that it is made. Woe to anyone who underestimates that, especially in times of war, propaganda is an integral and highly relevant part of politics. It strongly influences the masses, and also the most bitter of capitalist brother-enemies.
We have stated our position in other texts: a return to US hegemony over the world is impossible; we have also highlighted how the protectionist recipes launched by Trump-1 have not been crowned with success. But US imperialism has no intention of relinquishing its dominance over the world, escaping the historical regularity previously claimed. On the contrary. Trump-2 is determined to radicalize the ongoing trade wars with adversaries and allies, and to resort to military intervention where necessary (he has also threatened to do so with regard to Russia, if it does not accept his “peace” proposals).
He managed to rally a much larger part of the ruling class around this perspective than in 2016. Donald Trump now has a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives and the Supreme Court. He is also strengthened by the extremely severe blow dealt to the European Union by his predecessor Joe Biden, with the almost complete rupture of economic and diplomatic relations between the European Union and Russia.
3.
As for its allies, the United States has certainly won back points through brutal methods (the war it provoked in Ukraine, the destruction of North Stream). And now Donald Trump is ready to confront them and put the European Union in even greater difficulty and attack China and its allies with a European Union that is as aligned as possible – which is not easy, since such an alignment risks a profound social and political destabilization for Germany and France, which has already begun. The “sovereignist” Giulia Meloni has already said she is ready, hoping to profit from the interests that Great Britain has in store for her. Brexit, six years after the bet, he didn't even see it with the telescope of wishes.
Donald Trump’s America will not give gifts, assuming that Uncle Sam has given them in other times, with other presidencies. It will sow chaos and war throughout the world. Economic and social chaos in allied countries as well, if it is true that the new tariffs, in addition to China as the first target, will hit European companies and countries. Economic chaos and a fierce anti-worker and anti-popular political reaction in the countries of South America, for which Javier Milei’s model was indicated.
As for the sowing of war, for now, the intimidation of gangsters directed at Hamas and the Palestinians if the Israeli hostages are not released, and those directed at disobedient friendly countries (Denmark, Panama, Mexico) will suffice. Naturally, behind all this is the intensification of preparations for a military confrontation with China. While China, for its part, is trying by all means to gain time, to position itself in a position to oppose the US on its own ground.
For now, it is enough to reaffirm that Trump must be taken seriously.
*Pietro Basso is a retired professor of sociology at the Ca'Foscari University of Venice.
Translation: Mauro Titton.
Originally published in Il Pungulorosso, internationalist newspaper.
References
https://pungolorosso.com/2024/12/16/il-ritorno-di-trump-guerra-commerciale-e-guerra-militare/
https://pungolorosso.com/2024/12/22/la-guerra-di-trump-agli-immigrati/
https://pungolorosso.com/2025/01/08/luragano-trump-si-abbatte-sulla-salute-dei-proletari-americani/
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