Environment, precatories and presidential race

Image: Zino Bang


Thoughts on recent events

At the Glasgow Conference (COP-26), Brazil was surprised by peer pressure and signed the agreement to reduce methane gas, as well as the agreement in favor of large-scale deforestation, with targets for 2030 and 2050. representation of the Ministry of the Environment and Itamaraty – with more than 100 holders of positions and commissions – the country is pressured and bent in its interests of isolation, notably due to the management of “pass the cattle” Ricardo Salles. I hope the will of the majority persists and Brazil has to answer for its commitments in the environmental area. COP-26 is a turning point, analyzing the perspectives of global warming, the destruction of forests and the suitable mechanisms for transactions with carbon credits. A path of no return.

The PEC of precatorios, victorious in the first round in the Federal Chamber with the difference of four votes to obtain the technical majority (304), was obtained by co-opting the presidency of Arthur Lira, with the publicly known promise of R$ 15 million for each vote favorable, through amendments by the rapporteur; without precise destination and addressee.

An emblematic case, yet to be clarified, was the behavior of Ciro Gomes' PDT, granting 15 decisive votes to the government proposal. Its leader in the Federal Chamber resigned after an incisive demonstration by Ciro Gomes, suspending his pre-candidacy, in protest. The second round (November 9) may or may not confirm the pedetista rebellion, whose representation oscillates between the position of Ciro Gomes and his regional bases. The four federal deputies of the PDT of Ceará voted in favor of the government, accusing Ciro of not having manifested himself earlier!

The PEC on precatories, if approved, should increase the fiscal deficit by around R$ 106 billion; leaving only R$ 31 billion for the Auxílio Brasil program, the main announced reason for the PEC. The other resources will (or would go) to compensate for the exemption from the payroll of 17 business sectors, for amendments by the rapporteur to the deputies of the government base and for eventual assistance to truck drivers. Faced with the shock in public finances – facing the true fiction of the spending ceiling – the Federal Audit Court (TCU), led by Minister Augusto Nardes, proposes the relaxation of the ceiling for 2026.

In any case, the injunction by Minister Rosa Weber (STF), suspending parliamentary amendments (including those of the rapporteur) without a destination and details publicly known, puts a brake on government maneuvers and deepens the gap in the relations of the other powers with the Judiciary. Voting in the second round, this coming Tuesday (9), becomes an unknown quantity.

In the electoral scenario, in addition to the latest IPESP survey on presidential candidacies, it is important to note the first raptures of pre-candidate Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), garnering support from figures such as Henrique Meirelles and seeking the ineffable “third way”. It does not pronounce itself about anything crucial in the conjuncture, unless it manifests itself through desirable good and civilized gestures in politics. Sergio Moro returns from his consultancy in the United States and enrolls in Podemos, on the 10th of this month. Dallagnol, former Public Ministry and Rodrigo Janot, former PGR, should follow in his footsteps at Podemos. Both with aspirations to federal deputy in 2022.

This last week's IPESP survey corroborates Lula's leadership over the other pre-candidates, among other evaluated dimensions. Disapproval of the government remains high (64%), the perception of the news remains unfavorable to situationism (59%) with centrality on the issue of vaccination (25%), while the perception of the bad directions of the economy obtains 67% of the choices.

As for the pre-candidates, Lula has the preference of the electorate against Bolsonaro (31% to 24% of the spontaneous choice; in the stimulated Lula, 41% to 28% of Bolsonaro); while in the second round Lula would have 50% against 32% in the spontaneous poll and 52% in the stimulated one. Register the presence of Moro, challenging the position of eternal third of Ciro Gomes. They would not vote for Lula (46%) and Bolsonaro (61%) at all. A fertile ground, still to be explored by the candidacies.

A curiosity arises when the ideological self-identification of the inquired is asked: with 24% declaring themselves of “ right wing. A very realistic profile, according to longitudinal research on the political identities of the Brazilian people.

*Benicio Viero Schmidt is a retired professor of sociology at UnB and a consultant for Empower Consult. Author, among other books, of The State and urban policy in Brazil (LP&M).


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