By FLÁVIO AGUIAR*
Germany isá with a weak, minority governmentáriver, and with an economy à drift, bordering on shipwreckáthu
The English have an original expression to describe the moment when a negative situation worsens: “the plot”, that is, the plot, “thickens”, that is, it thickens, or even, it becomes complicated. The best translation is: “the broth thickens”.
This is what is happening in Germany. On Wednesday morning last week, an electric shock swept across the continent, including Germany: Donald Trump was elected president of the United States for the second time. The far-right parties and politicians were overjoyed. Those in the center and left were in shock.
In the evening, a new electric shock spread: Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP (Free Democratic Party, usually translated as Liberal Democratic Party).
As a result, the coalition that formed the government, called “Traffic Light” due to the representative colors of the parties, fell apart. Those colors were red (SPD), yellow (FDP) and green, from the Alliance 90/Greens.
From the beginning, in 2021, when Olaf Scholz became Chancellor, the coalition was described as “shaky”. With three parties, it brought together two described in the national media as “centre-left”, the SPD and the Greens, and one “centre-right”, the FDP.
There were no major differences between them in terms of human rights or foreign policy, but there were in terms of economics and administration. The SPD and the Greens wanted public investment, and Christian Lindner was against it.
From 2022 onwards, the German economy went into freefall. The Berlin government's adherence to economic sanctions against Russia and its military and financial support for Ukraine immediately led to the suspension of gas supplies by Gazprom, the Russian state-owned company. And Russian gas was vital for German industry.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine caused an increase in the price of inputs and agricultural products that came from that country (and to a lesser extent from Russia), such as fertilizers and sunflower oil.
Result: rising inflation, especially in the cost of energy and food, with repercussions on housing and health, closure of industries, the consequent increase in unemployment rates, especially among young people, a drop in domestic consumption and in imports and exports.
Immediate effect: the government's popularity plummeted. In successive regional elections, the SPD, Greens and FDP began to perform very poorly.
With federal elections scheduled for next year, right-wing oppositions have started to grow in voting intentions. Today the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is in first place. The AfD, Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for Germany), far-right, has overtaken the SPD and is in second place.
An internal dispute gnawed at the heart of the government coalition. The SPD and the Greens wanted to increase public investment to help industry and agriculture. The FDP blocked the initiative, clinging to the principle of fiscal austerity.
Finally, on Wednesday night the plot thickened and the rope broke. Olaf Scholz accused Christian Lindner of betraying his trust and fired him. Lindner came out swinging: he said that Scholz had led the country into uncertainty.
Two of the other three government ministers who are from the FDP resigned. The Minister of Transport preferred to leave the party and stay in the government. The result: a Titanic-like atmosphere spread throughout the government and the country, at a time when the Donald Trump iceberg appeared on the horizon.
Germany has a weak, minority government and an economy adrift, on the verge of sinking.
Olaf Scholz has announced that a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, the Federal Parliament, will be held in January 2025, with the possible early elections in March. The CDU and AfD want everything to happen even earlier.
The country's Electoral Commission warned that preparations for the election require time, and that Christmas is just around the corner, paralyzing the country for at least two weeks.
In short, things have really gotten worse, and no one knows when Germany will get out of the hole it has gotten itself into.
* Flavio Aguiar, journalist and writer, is a retired professor of Brazilian literature at USP. Author, among other books, of Chronicles of the World Upside Down (boitempo). [https://amzn.to/48UDikx]
Originally published in the “O Mundo Agora” section of Radio France Internationale (Brazil).
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