By CARLOS HENRIQUE VIANNA*
The Manichaeism of good and evil, proclaimed and accepted by both sides, has long poisoned the political panorama, not only nationally, but in almost the entire American continent.
A few days after Nicolás Maduro's proclaimed victory in the presidential elections, we already have to mourn 20 deaths, many injured, more than three thousand prisoners and the prospect of much protest, violence in the streets, harsh repression by the police forces and even the military. There does not seem to be a prospect of acceptance of the results by broad popular sectors and the opposition unified around Edmundo González's candidacy.
For his part, Nicolás Maduro has the support of the Armed Forces and police, militias, the Assembly and the judiciary. His response to the challenge is repression, “the maximum punishment” for prisoners. The electoral records remain unpublished, it seems to be a matter of pride for the regime. The Supreme Court of Justice requested the publication of the minutes. Will they be?
The impasse is established, at national and international level.
At the international level, official reactions can be divided into three groups:
(i) Recognition of Nicolás Maduro’s victory (Russia, China, Cuba, Nicaragua and others).
(ii) Suspicious of the results, Uruguay, Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and the Dominican Republic published a joint letter and asked for a transparent count of the votes. Some more, others less, the accusation of fraud is explicit. The Venezuelan government's reaction was to break relations and expel diplomats from these countries. In the Argentine embassy there are six opposition leaders, who have been in asylum since March, and the embassy was threatened with invasion, now neutralized with the raising of the Brazilian flag and with Brazil taking on the representation of Argentina. Peru asked for the same. Chile also joined this group, with nuances.
(iii) Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, countries with great diplomatic and political weight in Latin America, maintain dialogue with the Venezuelan government, but request the publication of the minutes of all voting locations as a condition for recognizing the results. This position is followed by the European Union, in particular by countries with more ties to Venezuela, Portugal, Spain and Italy. This position was also agreed between Brazil and the United States, in a contact between Lula and Biden on July 30.
The United States, however, changed its position and recognized Edmundo Gonzalez's victory, thus joining the group of several anti-Maduro South American countries, which also has the support of the OAS. The UN general secretariat also expressed a similar opinion to Lula.
Elections in Venezuela are carried out using an electronic ballot box, similar to Brazil. They are considered safe by many politicians and experts. However, the question that arises is why the results are not announced immediately when each polling place closes, as happens in Brazil, where the evolution of the vote for each presidential candidate can be monitored minute by minute.
Another disturbing question is why the president of the CNE, National Electoral Council, one of the five formally independent bodies of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, proclaimed the victory of Nicolás Maduro with 80% of the count carried out, even giving the percentages of the two candidates 51,2% and 44%. Could the 20% of uncounted votes not change the announced percentages? Mathematically it is possible. The day after the announcement, the CNE swore in the elected president. Is the CNE really independent of the Executive Branch in Venezuela? Was there fraud, is the delay in publishing the minutes due to fraud? Is it possible that so many countries and international organizations question the results due to the vested interests of North Americans and “their lackeys” in Venezuelan oil, as claimed by sectors of the Latin American left?
Venezuela is exhausted. Starting with an important part of the population that has been leaving the country for several years, with the worsening of the economic and social crisis. The countries of Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, as well as the United States, are the largest recipients of Venezuelan citizens, six to seven million emigrants. Among them, many qualified people, technicians from the oil industry, who, since the famous PDVSA strike in 2002, the oil company, at the beginning of the Hugo Chávez government, have been leaving the country and working in the oil industry around the world.
The strike was triggered by Hugo Chávez's dismissal of the president and five directors of PDVSA. This has always had enormous power in the country, as it generated 70% of all exports. It was almost a State within a State. Hugo Chávez broke the back of this power, fired hundreds or thousands of employees and created another PDVSA, subject to his command. Not without huge clashes and even a failed coup attempt against him. From then on, he consolidated his caudillista and authoritarian style.
At a high price, as PDVSA was never the same again and oil production was progressively decreasing, despite enormous crude reserves, the largest in the world. The partial scrapping of the industrial facilities of PDVSA and the state electricity company is a reality. Blackouts have been occurring for years.
I am a direct witness to this scrapping, as I was six times between 2010 and 2012 at the largest thermoelectric plant in the country, Planta Centro, on inspection and consultancy duty. It was sad to see the state of this installation, essential for the electrical balance of the network and for generation.
Venezuela is economically exhausted, as all indicators have declined, especially since the government of Nicolás Maduro. Almost everything is imported, there is almost no industry, immense financial resources have flown abroad for many years. The economy is practically dollarized to try to neutralize galloping inflation.
US sanctions undoubtedly contributed to this exhaustion, but the enormous political and technical incompetence of successive governments, as well as corruption, are also part of the reasons for this economic exhaustion. Not to mention the issue of drug trafficking, which affects several countries in South America.
Venezuela is socially exhausted, urban violence is among the highest in the world, food insecurity is extensive and has lasted for years, the privileges of certain sectors close to the regime are evident to everyone. There is part of the population that receives food baskets and is dependent on government actions and the regime party, the PSUV. The privileges of the military, police forces and popular militias are visible to everyone. The military has companies and even a bank.
Venezuela is politically exhausted. The Bolivarian revolution, which undoubtedly made positive achievements in its time in favor of the poorest sections of the population, gave rise to an authoritarian and Manichaean regime of the type “Whoever is not with us is with the worst enemies and traitors of the Fatherland”. A fractured and saddened, morally wounded country.
And with many people willing to take to the streets, even when violently repressed. Expelling diplomats from seven neighboring countries will only further isolate the regime. And it will not be Russia and China that will resolve this isolation. They will be able to give credits, buy oil, declare support. But there are no free lunches, as we know.
Most of the votes given to the opposition candidate Edmundo González were not given for ideological reasons, they were due to exclusion, they are votes against Nicolás Maduro and the current regime, they are not votes for the ideological options of the opposition leaders.
In the coming days or weeks we will know the immediate future of Venezuela. The confirmation of Nicolás Maduro's third term will come at a very high cost for the majority of the Venezuelan population, including many millions of emigrants spread across the world. New waves of emigrants will move to nearby countries if Nicolás Maduro wins this parade.
Unfortunately, the necessary pacification and reconciliation of the nation is not envisaged, which necessarily involves the removal of Nicolás Maduro and his government. There are no names that are consensual or respected by the majority. The Manichaeism of good and evil, proclaimed and accepted by both sides, has long poisoned the political panorama, not only nationally, but in almost the entire American continent.
*Carlos Henrique Vianna is an engineer. He was director of Casa do Brasil in Lisbon. He is the author, among other books, of A question of justice.
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