By RUBEN BAUER NAVEIRA*

Scenarios for the Third World War

If by “World War III” we mean a war between Russia and the United States, then it has two phases. The first is an indirect war that began decades ago – let’s say it was on March 12, 1999, with the accession of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to NATO, violating the agreements on NATO’s non-expansion to the East signed with the then Soviet Union a decade earlier; exactly three months later, on June 12 of that year, the first armed confrontation between Russia and NATO would occur, at the airport in the city of Pristina, in the context of the separatist war in Kosovo. Since then, tensions between the two countries have only increased.

The second phase, that of a direct war between Russians and Americans, has not yet begun, but was formally assumed by Russia as having already begun, through a speech given by President Vladimir Putin on November 21 (official English transcript) here), in which he stated:

"On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. From that point onward, as we have repeatedly emphasized in prior communications, the regional conflict in Ukraine provoked by the West has assumed elements of a global nature".

And he also declared that “Our decision on further [military actions] (…) will depend on the actions of the United States and its satellites. "

He could not have been more explicit. Russia recognizes that it is at war with the West, but as a final “call to reason” addressed to Western leaders, it will still wait for the start of direct hostilities by NATO.

We then outline here some plausible scenarios for future developments:

(i) Fearing direct war, NATO refuses and suspends further Western missile strikes on Russian territory. However, Western leaders have already given more than enough evidence that they disregard Russia's “red lines,” and furthermore, the agents of the “deep state"those who actually govern the United States (and not Joe Biden) have a great interest in making Donald Trump's future government unfeasible in advance. We therefore attribute a 10% chance of this scenario coming to fruition.

(ii) Ukraine continues its campaign of attacks on Russian territory with NATO support, and Russia refrains from responding, awaiting the inauguration of Donald Trump's presidency on January 20. Such a scenario would be tantamount to considering Russia bluffing, something that has not happened throughout the entire course of the “indirect war” (since 1999). 5% chance.

(iii) NATO attacks via Ukraine continue, and Russia responds by attacking NATO military installations. Again as stated by Vladimir Putin in his aforementioned speech: “We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities.” We will decompose the 85% probability we assign to this scenario into some sub-scenarios:

(a) Russia attacks several US military installations in Europe and the Middle East. Such a scenario, which would be intended to intimidate the Americans, would most likely have the opposite effect, virtually forcing the United States into an escalation that would quickly converge into an all-out nuclear war. 5% chance.

(b) Russia launches a limited attack, hoping it will be enough to intimidate the United States. 80% chance, which we break down as follows:

(b1) Russia attacks only those military installations that it considers to be unacceptable threats to its own security (and which formed its justification for the invasion of Ukraine), namely the NATO missile bases at Redzikowo in Poland and Deveselu in Romania. Since these are facilities operated by American military personnel, the Russians give advance warning that they will attack them so that they can be evacuated, with the Americans losing the facilities but saving the lives of their military personnel. 40% chance.

(b2) Russia attacks bases in Poland and Romania without warning, resulting in American deaths. 20% chance.

(b3) Russia attacks some other military target of lesser importance, for example it sinks a frigate or some other small ship of the American Navy. 20% chance.

From there, it will all be a question of whether the Americans will allow themselves to be intimidated or whether they will escalate. If they do escalate, it is more likely that, rather than embarking on a gradual escalation, the Russians will respond with great force as a last-ditch attempt to stop the mutual escalation. Again, in the words of Vladimir Putin: “when choosing, if necessary and as a retaliatory measure, targets to be hit (…) on Ukrainian territory, we will in advance suggest that civilians (…) residing in those areas leave danger zones. We will do so for humanitarian reasons, openly and publicly”.

Vladimir Putin did not say, but for those who understand, he is referring to a nuclear attack on some Ukrainian city (most likely in the western regions of Ukraine, such as Galicia). Naturally, even with the Russians' "humanitarian" warning, there will be thousands of civilian deaths, which will trigger hysteria throughout the West, and heavy recriminations against Russia.

However, the role assigned by the West to the Ukrainian population in this war is to die, so pragmatically, the chances that such a drastic measure would halt the escalation would be reasonable, and would also result in the West definitively abandoning Ukraine.

The only other alternative would be to continue the escalation, until all-out nuclear war and the certain death of a large part of the Earth's inhabitants. It is up to us to hope that things do not reach that point, or, if they do, to find a way to prevent it. reinvent the world and our lives.

*Ruben Bauer Naveira is a political activist and pacifist. Author of the book A New Utopia for Brazil: Three guides to get out of chaos (available at http://www.brasilutopia.com.br/).

To read the second article in this series click on https://dpp.cce.myftpupload.com/no-radar-geopolitico-ii/

To read the first article in this series click on https://dpp.cce.myftpupload.com/no-radar-geopolitico/

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