On the geopolitical radar – IV

Image: Jan Habarta
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By RUBEN BAUER NAVEIRA*

In coded language, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will attack Redzikowo

Em article published on November 24th, on the website the earth is round, I anticipated the high probability that Russia would attack the NATO missile launch base in Redzikowo, Poland.

The day before yesterday, Vladimir Putin did something that in the West was considered reckless bravado, and outside it was considered witty provocation, but nothing more.

Faced with a question from a journalist (obviously, a set-up) asking him to comment on the views of Western military experts as to whether the new Russian missile Oresik could be easily shot down by US missile defense systems, he replied: “Well, if these experts you refer to believe that, they should suggest to their bosses in the West and in the US that they conduct a technological experiment. Like a dogfight high-tech of the 21st century. Let them designate a target in Kiev, and let them concentrate all their air defense and missile defense systems around it, and then we will attack it with the Oreshnik. And we will see what happens.”

Vladimir Putin is not one to speak in vain. In my opinion, this was neither an inconsequential bravado nor a witty provocation. In coded language, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will attack Redzikowo.

The Redzikowo base is the second in Europe (the other is Deveselu, in Romania) to house the anti-missile system Aegis Ashore, designed to shoot down Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles that might be fired at Europe and the United States. When the Americans opened the Deveselu base in 2016, the Russians protested, and the Americans gave the lame excuse that the base was to prevent a missile attack “from Iran.”

It could be argued that Romania is still on Iran's "route", but Poland is not. Thus, the opening of the Redzikowo base was postponed, but from 2022 onwards, with the war in Ukraine, the use of pretexts was no longer necessary, and the base was finally put into operation in July 2024.

Americans continue to claim that the system Aegis Ashore It is purely defensive, but its missile launchers are of the MK-41 model, which can be reconfigured in a matter of minutes to launch cruise missiles. Tomahawk, attack missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. From the Redzikowo base, Moscow is a seven-minute flight away from these missiles – and this is one of the real reasons for the war in Ukraine.

Redzikowo is thus NATO's number one target for the Russians, with the added benefit of being a military installation designed precisely to shoot down ballistic missiles, such as the Oresik – an attack on Redzikowo with the Oresik will have the power to prove Vladimir Putin's thesis that American defense systems are useless against Russian missiles. And he will even be able to mock, saying that he directly challenged the Americans, and that if they did not accept the challenge, the Russians were forced to go after their anti-missile defenses...

*Ruben Bauer Naveira is a political activist and pacifist. Author of the book A New Utopia for Brazil: Three guides to get out of chaos (available at http://www.brasilutopia.com.br/).

To read the third article in this series click on https://dpp.cce.myftpupload.com/no-radar-geopolitico-iii/

To read the second article in this series click on https://dpp.cce.myftpupload.com/no-radar-geopolitico-ii/

To read the first article in this series click on https://dpp.cce.myftpupload.com/no-radar-geopolitico/


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