On the geopolitical radar

Christopher RW Nevinson, Returning to the Trenches, 1916
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By RUBEN BAUER NAVEIRA*

The current complex geopolitical chessboard with its multiple wars, de-dollarization and US elections

Israel

For weeks now, Israel has been sending out signals that it will launch a major offensive against Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah. This would be highly foolhardy, given that Hezbollah has: spent the last two decades building a network of tunnels and bunkers underground throughout southern Lebanon; gained extensive combat experience by fighting for years in the Syrian civil war, and; accumulated a stockpile estimated at around 150 missiles and rockets aimed at Israel.

To make everything more surreal, Israel has been openly announcing that it will attack Lebanon, that is, deliberately giving up any element of surprise, which would be absolutely essential to attack a heavily entrenched enemy. Israeli leaders have demonstrated immense presumption (overconfidence) when addressing their plans, something that sounds very strange.

What conclusion could one reach? The answer is one of those so terrifying that it sounds implausible: Israel is preparing to employ tactical nuclear weapons against Lebanon. It is worth remembering that Israel no longer has any ethical or moral “brakes” for its actions, having seen what it has done in Gaza (videos from Saturday, 22/06 – sensitive content follow):

Attacks “from Ukraine” on Russian territory

The quotation marks here are due to there being no attack “from Ukraine” on Russian territory, only attacks by NATO. With each attack, American satellites provide the target's coordinates, which are programmed by NATO instructors (sic) in equally Western weapons. Ukraine is not even aware of the targets (to reduce the risk of espionage by the Russians, and because it is not necessary), it just lends its “face”, so that it can take all the blame: the only pilot who takes off and releases is Ukrainian. the missile at a pre-determined point, or the agent infiltrated into Russian territory who releases the drone.

As Russian territory is gigantic, it is absolutely impossible for the country's anti-aircraft defenses to cover it entirely, so they only protect those most important assets. In this way, the attacks will continue, and in many cases they will be successful, especially against the civilian population, to try to convince them that Vladimir Putin is incompetent to protect them. Just yesterday (Sunday June 23, morning), NATO…, oops, Ukraine launched a cluster bomb hit a crowd of bathers on a beach in Crimea, killing five people including two children and injuring more than a hundred, many seriously.

The Americans would love to provoke a war between Europe and Russia, making the Europeans their new proxy-cannon fodder after the extermination in combat of the adult male population of Ukraine (apart from those who managed to escape the country). However, some things the Americans absolutely do not want: to participate directly in this war; that American soldiers are hit (only at the Rammstein air base in Germany there are around 40 thousand of them), and; lead the Russians to employ tactical nuclear weapons. In other words, they want another localized war, not the Third World War (nuclear) – they will enjoy walking a tightrope like that in Ukraine. So, the Americans need to “measure” the attacks by OT…, hell, Ukraine on Russian territory, so as not to reach the point of forcing the Russians into retaliation that crosses some of those red lines. And, at the same time as they are dosing, they are stretching the rope to test Russia's limits...

The Russians, in turn, have so far not directly retaliated against these attacks, and will most likely continue without retaliating against them (unless NATO “gets too heavy”, for example, by hitting some Russian nuclear installation, civil or military, ). After all, Russia is winning the war in Ukraine, so it doesn't need to take the bait of NATO's escalation. This does not mean that the Russians are not retaliating, they are, just indirectly (for example, by providing cutting-edge weapons to the enemies of the West, see Vladimir Putin's recent visit to North Korea; it is also worth seeing how the Kremlin will react to Israel's announced invasion of Lebanon).

Dedollarization

On June 09, a 50-year agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia to sell Saudi oil exclusively in dollars expired. There is no, and there will not be, official confirmation of this non-renewal from the Saudis, so things pass as if it had not happened. However, one of the pillars of the dollar's hegemony in the world was shaken.

In any case, the rest of the world (apart from Russia and China) still cannot de-dollarize their economies, because they lack a payment system similar to SWIFT and, mainly, because there is still no currency (which will necessarily have to be supranational) alternative to the dollar that imposes itself as a new global reference standard.

China and Russia have been working very hard on this, and the idea is that both the new payment system and the new currency will be adopted within the BRICS – and the new countries joining the group will certainly bring as a criterion the political will for the new countries to embark on this endeavor (by the way, it was not just Argentina that declined its membership of the BRICS, Saudi Arabia has so far not confirmed its entry, which should have taken place on January 01st, leaving it “on hold” – the game is rough).

It will be the success of this new currency that will represent the final nail in the dollar's coffin, and thus China and Russia will take every precaution (in addition to seeking the best timing) to launch it.

US elections

It is still too early to predict that “Donald Trump will win”, especially since the deep state (who plays Joe Biden) never lets go easily. Americans have even coined an expression, “october surprise”, to refer to some bombastic event that takes place very close to the election date (which is in November), as a last-minute attempt to turn the tide with the electorate.

So far, the strongest rumors for this “surprise” speak of Joe Biden resigning as president on the eve of the Democratic party’s national convention (in September, which would consist of a “september surprise" LOL). Kamala Harris would hold the presidency until January, another more competitive candidate would be anointed at the convention (if it is Kamala herself, only if the Democrats are very desperate), and Biden would take alone for retirement (or the grave, if the deep state opt for something more dramatic) the American blame for Ukraine and Gaza. To be checked.

In any case, the first televised debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place on Thursday, June 27th, on CNN, and will be decisive in revealing Biden's ability (or inability) to face Trump at the polls. It will be the acid test for the plans for this “surprise".

Houthis

Houthis in Yemen will be able to request music on the Fantastic, for having released (last week) the third high-impact video of their actions, that of the Liberian-flagged Greek bulk carrier Tutor, hit by unmanned underwater drones (and which ended up sinking):

(i) The Belize-flagged British bulk carrier Rubymar:

(ii) The sixth hundred million dollar global hawk drone shot down (you don't need to know Arabic to understand everything they say lol):

(iii) The Guardian:

A few days ago (and in the wake of the Russian announcement that they would start supplying cutting-edge weapons to Western enemies, such as the Houthis), the American Navy command announced that it is already withdrawing the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Einsenhower from the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, allegedly for… scheduled rotation of vessels – then okay.

*Ruben Bauer Naveira is a political activist. Book author A New Utopia for Brazil: Three guides to get out of chaos (available at http://www.brasilutopia.com.br/).





 

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