By ANDREW KORYBKO*
Some observations on Kiev’s latest provocation – taking into account the wider picture
The Russia accused Ukraine from attempting a drone strike on one of TurkStream’s gas compressor stations, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described as “ energy terrorism”, while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the US they gave the green light to gain an energy monopoly over the EU. This comes less than two weeks after Ukraine cut off Russian gas exports to Europe through its territory.
This is not the first Ukrainian attack attempt against TurkStream
Ukraine has tried to destroy this pipeline at least three times in late 2022 alone (we analyzed two of its failed sabotage attempts here e here), but this is the first time that drones have been attempted. This actually shows that TurkStream remains a priority target for Kiev. But strangely, this has not led to a break in ties with Ankara, as evidenced by their continued military cooperation that even includes a drone factory. Therefore, the latest attempted attack is not expected to harm their relations.
Neither Turkey nor NATO care about this provocation
Turkey’s position is hard to understand: either Turkey does not believe Russia’s claims that Ukraine is trying to attack TurkStream, or it inexplicably believes that it has more to gain by continuing to support Ukraine – despite these provocations – than by suspending aid in response. As for NATO, while member state Hungary condemned the attack as a violation of its sovereignty due to the country’s partial dependence on exports from that pipeline, the bloc as a whole predictably does not care, since it is anti-Russian at the core of its policy.
Ukraine wanted to complete the decoupling of the gas pipeline between Russia and the European Union
Ukraine’s motivation was to destroy the last operational gas pipeline between Russia and the European Union, which it believed would make it harder for the two to engage in meaningful rapprochement after the end of the conflict, while also depriving the Kremlin of revenue to fund its current Special Operations program. This attack was essentially designed to complement the September 2022 Nord Stream terrorist attack, with the aim of serving in the geopolitical power play to influence Europe’s post-war future.
This was a dishonest operation by Deep State or was it approved by Joe Biden?
The first scenario would align with the hypothesis – regarding Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s early warning systems – that they were intended as a desperate attempt at escalation, later controlled; while the second would align with the Nord Stream II precedent. Lavrov has already blamed the US, so the question is to what extent his administration was aware of this. The answer will help predict whether or not Donald Trump’s return to office next week will make a difference to these correlations.
As an Will Donald Trump react to this event?
Based on the above, it would be more difficult for Donald Trump to control dishonest behavior than Deep State if he – Trump – were against the attack, but the precedent of Joe Biden (or rather those who control him) being able to prevent Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s early warning systems suggests that it is not impossible. On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that Donald Trump may support the sabotage of TurkStream to gain an energy monopoly over the European Union and/or leverage over Turkey, in which case more such attempts could occur.
The best-case scenario is that Donald Trump soon makes it clear to Ukraine that it is unacceptable to attack TurkStream and then tasks his supporters with Deep State to root out the associated subversive elements. TurkStream could play a role in creative energy diplomacy as part of a grand Russian-American deal on Ukraine, the outcome of which aligns with their goal of a rapid end to the conflict. Deviating from this course could easily lead to an escalation that risks spiraling dangerously out of control.
*Andrew Korybko holds a master's degree in International Relations from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Book author Hybrid Wars: From Color Revolutions to Coups (popular expression). [https://amzn.to/46lAD1d]
Translation: Arthur Scavone.
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