By LUCIANA V. GATTI*
The current situation shows that the economic model based on the export of grains, meat and wood makes us increasingly vulnerable to climate change and to the extreme events that have killed many Brazilians.
Over 21 years of study in the Amazon, measuring CO2 (carbon dioxide), CO (carbon monoxide) and other greenhouse gases, determining the emissions and absorption of these gases in the Amazon and emissions from burning, we understand that there is a strong correlation between deforestation, loss of rain, increase in temperature and increase in CO emissions.2. This conclusion was reached after 14 years of studies, more than a thousand flights in small planes, in four locations in the Amazon, strategically chosen to represent the Amazon ecosystem.
In order to understand why there was so much variation from one year to the next, and from one region to another, we studied what happened for one region of the forest to have such different emissions from another. To do this, we studied 40 years of rainfall, temperature and how much each area had already been deforested. We found that the more deforested the region, the greater the intensification of climate stress in the region, becoming increasingly drier and hotter, and the duration of the dry season longer. This situation affects its ability to absorb carbon. These effects occur mainly during the months of August, September and October, when less moisture enters the forest from the ocean.
The current drought is also the result of this intensification of deforestation since 2019, not only in the Amazon, but in all Brazilian ecosystems. Since this year, we have also observed an intensification of extreme rain and drought events in Brazil. Nature, forests, and woodlands are part of climate control, and their intensified loss is part of this scenario of accelerating climate change in Brazil, which is compounded by global climate change. In this context, the current unnatural fires, promoted during periods of intense drought, are causing great plant loss, and we can say that we will experience an intensification of droughts and even greater extreme events in the future. This is the reason for the alarm and enormous concern of the scientific community.
The current swarm of fires that is ravaging the country is not natural. Natural fire ignitions can occur due to lightning and accidental ignitions, which can occur due to thrown cigarette butts, electric sparks, etc. However, these accidents would not occur coincidentally all at the same time throughout Brazil. The evidence that they are caused is in the entire history of fire monitoring in Brazil. Fires intensified in Brazil as of July 15, 2024 (Figure 1), mainly in the Amazon and Pantanal and a month later in the cerrado and Atlantic Forest, totaling 155 fire outbreaks. In the last 30 days, there were 105.665 outbreaks, with 68% concentrated in the last month. The seven days with the highest number of fires are shown in Table 1, which shows the 3 states with the highest number of outbreaks. Source: BD Queimadas/INPE, open and public data.
The most affected ecosystem is the Amazon (Figure 2), where its forest is currently experiencing a greater risk of fires due to deforestation, leading to increasingly intense droughts, in addition to the global conditions of the last two years, worsening the situation. In 2, we had both an extreme El Niño and an anomaly of high temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. This year, although there is no longer an El Niño, the anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean persists, in addition to deforestation, leading to reduced rainfall and rising temperatures.
On September 15, 2024, during an interview on GloboNews, when asked about the fires, I was going to comment on the widespread fires throughout Brazil at the same time, and on a large scale, and how this reminded me of the “day of fire” on August 10, 2019 and how it spread throughout the Amazon, in addition to the black rain that fell in São Paulo a few days later. To talk about all the ecosystems, I started with the state of São Paulo, my state, which had a frightening 1886 fire outbreaks in a single day: August 23, 08. I remembered when I lived in the region of Ribeirão Preto and São Carlos, and it rained soot due to the burning of sugarcane at that time, since fire was used in the harvesting process. Which no longer happens today, to the relief of the lungs of many hundreds of thousands of residents in the region.
In my speech, I did not identify anyone to blame at any point. Nor could I, since our study methods are limited to the number of fire outbreaks, burned areas and emissions resulting from them, without pointing out or holding individuals or legal entities responsible. Nor did I speak on behalf of INPE, the institution where I am a scientist. I was developing my reasoning based on the scientific studies we have been doing for 25 years, when the internet connection at the hotel where I was staying went down. I began to speak about Governor Tarcísio announcing financial aid in such a short time before the investigations identified the culprits and the victims. All victims deserve help: both the large farmers who were victims of the fire, as well as the small farmers and smallholders who had their properties burned and suffered losses in crops, animals, etc. As well as the people who became ill and the families of the people who died, my sincere condolences go to all the victims. It is regrettable that the Secretary of Agriculture of the State of São Paulo calls a scientist a criminal, instead of putting all his efforts into identifying all the criminals who promoted, on August 23, 2024 alone, 1886 fires in São Paulo's crops. Adding the occurrences on the days between the 22nd and 24th, there were 2621 fire outbreaks.
We need to protect ourselves from climate change: plant trees, plant trees, and plant trees. In addition to being true “rain factories”, “water factories”, they also reduce temperatures and protect us from heat waves and extreme torrential rain events, and they also remove CO from the atmosphere.2, the main culprit behind climate change.
The current situation shows us that this economic model based on grain, meat and timber exports makes us increasingly vulnerable to climate change and to the extreme events that have killed many Brazilians. We need to develop a viable economic model in these times of such different climates, and knowing that it will only get worse. We need to produce food in an agroforestry system, where at the same time that we produce food, we also produce rain, lower the temperature and remove CO2 of the atmosphere. Nowadays, we need to come together to develop solutions. We need to put out the fires, take action against those who have no commitment to the collective, and join forces to discover together how to survive in Brazil, a planet that is increasingly inhospitable, due to the aggressions committed against the environment, against nature.
*Luciana V. Gatti is a Climate Change Scientist and coordinator of the Greenhouse Gas Laboratory at INPE.
REFERENCES
Gatti, LV et al. Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.
Nature 595, 388–393 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6
Gatti, LV et al. Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement. Nature 621, 318–323 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06390-0
Gatti, LV et al. Drought Sensitivity of Amazonian Carbon Balance Revealed by Atmospheric Measurements, Nature 506, 76–80 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12957
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