By MOU HONGJIN*

To successfully host COP30, the country will also need to make progress in reducing its own emissions and offering support to other developing countries.

1.

The 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) undoubtedly assumes the mission of promoting global climate cooperation and driving action to reduce emissions. However, the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and the elimination of subsidies for new energy sources have had a major impact, generating even more uncertainty in global climate governance. In this challenging scenario, Brazil, as host of COP30, faces pressure and makes every effort to organize the conference and conduct global climate governance, seeking to avoid a domino effect of abandoning the climate pact.

President Donald Trump announced the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the first day of his new term. “The United States is a key player. Not only does it have the largest economy in the world, but it is also among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases and is one of the countries that has invested the most in technology to address climate change,” said COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago.

The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has seriously weakened global climate governance. With Donald Trump’s ambitions to expand fossil fuel production and roll back environmental regulations, greenhouse gas emissions are likely to rise. The central goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the increase in global average temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a goal of 1,5°C. However, the US withdrawal has made achieving this goal exponentially more difficult. In addition to abandoning its own emissions reduction commitments, the US has also cut off essential financial, technological, and scientific support to achieve the global goal.

In terms of financing, one of the pillars of the Paris Agreement is the Green Climate Fund, an international mechanism financed by industrialized countries to assist developing nations in implementing climate policies. The goal was to raise US$100 billion per year. However, when he withdrew from the agreement, Donald Trump criticized the fund, claiming that it was a mechanism for transferring wealth from rich to poor countries. As a result, the United States drastically reduced the financial assistance promised to developing countries in the climate sector, which directly affected the implementation of projects to reduce emissions and initiatives to adapt to climate change.

The United States has long been a global market engine and a catalyst for technological innovation in new energy. But on January 20, Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency, focusing not on the need for clean energy but on increasing the exploitation of traditional energy sources. As part of an executive order on energy, he suspended the Green New Deal, a set of measures by the Biden administration aimed at creating green jobs, regulating the fossil fuel industry and limiting pollution.

The end of the stimulus package for new energy sales has posed serious challenges to the survival and development of US companies in the sector. This situation has had an even more significant impact on Japanese and South Korean battery manufacturers. On the same day, shares of LG New Energy, Samsung SDI and SK Innovation fell. In response, the South Korean government stated that “the increase in tariffs, the end of the Green New Deal policy and the cancellation of the mandatory purchase policy for electric vehicles will have direct and indirect impacts on the South Korean economy.”

The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will undermine the global community’s confidence in international climate cooperation, weaken collaboration among countries, and hinder progress on global climate governance. As Brazil prepares for COP30, it will need to make major efforts to rebalance relations among participating countries and seek support from new nations to fill the gap in cooperation left by the United States.

Some countries under strong US influence are showing hesitation in joining climate cooperation, which will make Brazil's task of organizing the conference and ensuring a significant outcome even more challenging.

Climate governance requires substantial financial investment and advanced technological support. With the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the volume of capital available for climate finance has been significantly reduced, and technology exchange and scientific cooperation have also been impacted. Brazil, in turn, has limited financial resources to address climate governance and its technological level is still relatively outdated.

2.

To successfully host COP30, the country will also need to make progress in reducing its own emissions and offering support to other developing countries. The Brazilian government’s ability to formulate and implement policies that effectively reduce emissions without compromising its economic development goals will be put to the test.

On the one hand, Brazil has unique natural resources, with the Amazon rainforest being one of the largest carbon sinks on the planet, playing an essential role in regulating the global climate. In addition, the country has one of the cleanest electricity grids in the world, with a strong presence of hydroelectric power, which represents a solid foundation for advances in the energy transition.

On the other hand, the Lula government adopted a series of proactive and effective policies for climate governance, including the significant reduction of deforestation in the Amazon and the implementation of a “just transition” aimed at reducing dependence on fossil fuels without compromising the living standards of the most vulnerable populations. These initiatives created a favorable political environment for the COP30 and reinforced Brazil’s commitment to the global climate agenda.

Given the changing role of the United States in global climate governance, developing countries such as Brazil, China and India have gained greater prominence in international negotiations. In the context of the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, only members of the Paris Agreement can enjoy trade benefits, which makes COP30 an opportunity for Brazil to strengthen its position in climate governance and expand its global influence.

Brazil can also strengthen cooperation with countries in the Global South, such as China and India, to form a climate alliance aligned with the realities of developing countries. COP30 will serve to mobilize support and obtain more financing and technology transfer from developed countries.

Although the US federal government has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, some US state governments and companies continue to support climate action. Brazil can establish direct contacts with these stakeholders, inviting them to participate in COP30, sharing successful experiences and promoting collaborations to mitigate the impacts of the US withdrawal.

To make the climate transition financially viable, Brazil can innovate in climate finance models, attracting private investment and investment from international institutions. The country can also deepen technological partnerships with the European Union and China, aiming to develop advanced technologies for reducing emissions and capturing carbon.

Despite the challenges, the country clearly has a great opportunity to transform COP30 into a global milestone in climate governance and consolidate its leadership role in the environmental agenda.

*Mou Hongjin is a PhD candidate in International Relations at the Macau University of Science and Technology

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