Eurasia's path to stability

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By TIMOFEY BORDACHEV*

In greater Eurasia, cooperation manifests itself through initiatives and organizations that, by definition, resist the dominance of a single power or a small group of states.

In greater Eurasia, we are witnessing the most notable competition between two fundamental models of interstate relations: cooperation, exemplified by regional institutions and platforms, and competition, driven by the global economy and politics still dominated by the West. This dynamic defines the opportunities and challenges facing Russian policy in this direction as we approach 2025.

In the coming years, the region will continue to balance its natural desire for common development with the disruptive impact of global disintegration processes. Two critical factors shape this balance. First, the states of greater Eurasia are focused on achieving their national development goals. Second, the region’s central position in world politics and economics makes its development inseparable from broader global trends.

As the international order evolves towards a state of comparative equilibrium, challenges and tests will inevitably arise for the states of greater Eurasia. However, the long-term effect of this process could be positive, potentially creating the conditions for cooperation to become the dominant trend in inter-state relations. Despite today’s difficulties, this offers cautious optimism for the future of this part of the world.

Cooperation in Greater Eurasia

In greater Eurasia, cooperation is manifested through initiatives and organizations that, by definition, resist the dominance of a single power or a small group of states. In recent decades, the emergence of such institutions has been a clear achievement. They reflect a shared commitment to security and stability through collaboration with neighbors.

Unlike other parts of the world, greater Eurasia has no clear dividing lines between economic or political-military blocs. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by China and Russia, has emerged as a particularly ambitious and inclusive platform. It offers a basis for building a relatively equitable regional order in the long term.

The role of competition

However, the realities of global competition complicate these aspirations for cooperation. Most states in greater Eurasia are deeply integrated into the existing global economic system. While this linkage supports their development, it also exposes them to systemic vulnerabilities: economic disparities, politicization of economic processes, and increasing competition for increasingly scarce global resources.

This creates a paradox. While the countries of greater Eurasia seek to cooperate with each other, they also compete in a global system dominated by the West. This tension affects both small states and great powers, including China and India. The region thus embodies a lively rivalry between two models of interstate relations – cooperation in the regional framework and competition in the global arenas.

Challenges to regional integration

Practical cooperation among the states of Greater Eurasia is hampered by the absence of a unifying leader or institution. Unlike the West, which operates under US leadership, Greater Eurasia has no comparable central authority. While China is a candidate for this role, it lacks the political will and resources to dominate the region. Furthermore, China’s ambitions are effectively counterbalanced by Russia, India, and smaller powers pursuing independent foreign policies.

Consequently, greater Eurasia cannot build its regional order around an institution or framework with binding mandates. However, it is noteworthy that none of the major countries in the region has sacrificed cooperation with its neighbors in order to pursue extraregional alliances. Even India, despite its growing partnership with Washington, maintains its system of relations with its Eurasian neighbors. This fact is even more evident in the way India and China manage their bilateral ties, regardless of their global commitments.

Peripheral instabilities

Recent developments on the periphery of greater Eurasia, such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, are making the development of the region more complex. In the Middle East, the balance of power is undergoing significant changes, especially due to Israel's military and diplomatic pressure on the Arab states and Iran, with the full support of the West. These tensions threaten the stability of major regional powers, such as Iran, and could spill over into greater Eurasia.

In Southeast Asia, the weakening of ASEAN and the intensification of the rivalry between China and the Philippines are evidence of growing instability. Similarly, Northeast Asia is facing increasing tensions, with Japan and South Korea acting as extensions of US influence. These peripheral zones are increasingly becoming factors of instability that impede the internal stabilization of greater Eurasia. However, they cannot be ignored, since they are linked to the region by geography, economic integration, and human ties.

Looking to the future

The challenges facing greater Eurasia highlight the difficulty of developing a unified regional strategy. However, states in this region have so far managed to navigate these complexities without sacrificing cooperation. This cautious optimism is a testament to the resilience of institutions such as the SCO and the commitment of Eurasian states to preserving stability.

As Russia looks to 2025, it must reflect on how to strengthen its role in Greater Eurasia while also addressing the impact of global and peripheral instabilities. The future of this vast region will depend on its ability to balance cooperation and competition in a world undergoing profound transformation.

*Timofey Bordachev is a journalist and programming director at Valdai Club.

Translation: Fernando Lima das Neves.

Originally published on the portal RT.


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