By JOÃO DOS REIS SILVA JUNIOR*
Serfdom will once again bear the costs, while the oligarchs and men of the non-republicanized state administer the country's dependence.
The fiscal package that has been discussed for some time by the Lula government's economic team was announced on Wednesday, the 27th, when I had just finished writing the text that would be published the following day. There was no time to go into the subject. However, I made some notes! In fact, they were hypotheses through which I would like to continue the text: (i) Slavery has another form. (ii) The rentiers continue to call the shots without Paulo Guedes. The third was about the condition of the Brazilian State, which showed once and for all that it had not been republicanized. Finally, Congress is dominated by the oligarchs of current generations — from the same stock of those who tortured slaves.
Abolition and the Brazilian Republic
The abolitionist movement, which originated in Europe in the late 13th century, gained momentum during the French Revolution. Brazil, however, was the last country in the Americas to abolish slavery, on May 1888, XNUMX, with the enactment of the Lei Áurea (Golden Law). Among the main Brazilian abolitionist intellectuals, André Rebouças, Rui Barbosa and José do Patrocínio stand out, among many others. It was a historic milestone that would come to shape much of what Brazilian society is.
There were two lines of defense in favor of abolition: the first fought for liberation and rural democratization. The second, conservative, sought to maintain the slavery model with a new look. They sought compensation for the oligarchs and the release of blacks and browns without any preparation for freed slaves. When freed, blacks suffered prejudice and repression and sought refuge in the outskirts of large cities, a decisive factor in the origin and expansion of today's favelas.
Abolition must be understood in its relationship with the Proclamation of the Republic in Brazil. The actors were not very different. It was an uprising of those who were already standing; the day after abolition, slave-owning farmers, together with anti-monarchist groups, opposed it until the coup of November 15, 1889, when the military took over the patrimonial state and then, four years later, transferred the government to the coffee-growing oligarchs as a form of “compensation.”
The republic in the country was the result of the first military coup to maintain the social pact with oligarchic supremacy, with the Brazilian army as a guard dog — always called upon to contain any eventual breach of the social pact made at that moment in history.
Fernando Haddad (yes, he himself, who is negotiating the fiscal package) adds that, in another direction, the thesis he plans to develop is that, with the Proclamation of the Republic, the patrimonial State, although it changed hands, did not become republican. In this context, patrimonialism underwent a transformation, “modernizing itself”. Under the mantle of the Army, a significant change of command occurred: from a constitutional monarchy to an “absolute oligarchy”. This transformation, paradoxically, was driven by the abolition of slavery. In this regard, the movement of the “last-minute republicans” or “May 14 republicans” is quite revealing.
The fierce guard dog
Here we can see the weight that the Armed Forces have on Brazil’s fragile democracy. These are consequences of slavery in Brazil, rooted in the State, in the old rural oligarchies and in society as a whole. The country is a place of “absolute oligarchy” and “non-republicanized State”. Francisco de Oliveira, in his studies, analyzed this legacy in depth, demonstrating how Abolition, in addition to compensating former slave owners, also constituted an eviction action.
Freed without any preparation or support, the former slaves, mostly black and brown, migrated en masse to the cities in search of subsistence. The favelas grew and now house more than 50% of the Brazilian population. A place that some “leftists” avoid or ignore and that has become a territory on the fringes of the State. An immense quilombo larger than the country. Such features are still present today.
The tax package that many see as an affront to the military and the oligarchic corporations associated with rentierism is a document that needs to be further studied. The text presented will go to the plenary of both legislative houses with concrete signs that there will be changes to increase revenue. The subjects linked to Big Money expressed concerns about the effectiveness of the measures, highlighting that they are insufficient to significantly address Brazil's fiscal problem.
Economists have pointed to the lack of significant spending cuts and the maintenance of social benefits as weaknesses in the package. Anubis has already grumbled and as a result the changes announced regarding the military have a more symbolic than effective impact on fiscal adjustment. The measures include the implementation of a minimum retirement age, adjustments to pensions and the standardization of contributions to the Health Fund. However, these changes represent less than 1% of the total fiscal package, with an estimated annual savings of R$2 billion.
Internationalized Oligarchy
Rentiers were unhappy with the government's fiscal package for several reasons. First, it was considered insufficient to ensure economic stability and control inflation. Economists point out that the measures announced do not significantly change public spending projections, which could lead to a higher-than-expected Selic (interest rate).
Furthermore, the government's lack of ongoing commitment and clear signals regarding fiscal control generated uncertainty in the market. As for the dollar, it rose due to a combination of factors. Uncertainties about the effectiveness of the fiscal package and the possibility of a higher Selic rate increased the risk premium, leading investors to seek safety in hard currency assets. In addition, high inflation and the devaluation of the real also contributed to the appreciation of the dollar.
Representatives of the oligarchy, on the other hand, expressed their support for fiscal balance. They want foreign investment in a safe stock market guaranteed by the State at the expense of workers. Rodrigo Pacheco and Arthur Lira expressed their positions with caution and political calculation. They said they supported the Economy Minister's fiscal package. However, they reiterated the need for a balanced public accounts.
Rodrigo Pacheco stated that income tax exemption for those earning less than R$5.000,00 cannot be a current issue. He emphasized that balancing public accounts leads to unpopularity, but is necessary. Arthur Lira reinforced the government's initiative, saying that fiscal responsibility is non-negotiable.
The bill is paid by those who work.
Trade unions and union federations argue that workers in a wide range of employment situations (informal, informal, micro-entrepreneurs, micro-enterprises) are significantly concerned about the fiscal package. The argument follows what has always happened to workers: an increase in the tax burden on them and a reduction in social rights.
Worse still, according to its representatives, mass layoffs could occur and unemployment could reach levels never before seen, bringing about major changes in the working class and its forms of organization. Aggregation populism is showing acute signs of exhaustion. Let's see what happens in the coming weeks.
From the above, it is possible to predict who will pay the bill. Water, electricity (in some regions), rent, bus and subway fares are adjusted according to the minimum wage. Some social welfare programs and food prices are also adjusted based on the minimum wage. Often, the wages of these workers are adjusted based on the minimum wage.
There is a large contingent of rural workers whose wages are adjusted in relation to the minimum wage. The wages of informal workers and the precariat in general are adjusted based on the minimum wage. Serfdom will once again bear the costs, while the oligarchs and men of the non-republicanized State manage the country's dependence on the owners of oil, digital platforms and fictitious capital.
Shot in the foot
In the two days following Fernando Haddad's speech, interest rates rose by more than one percentage point and expectations are already being incorporated; the Selic rate, determined by the Central Bank, could be above 14% per year, and is already rising. Lula is shooting himself in the foot and fueling the galloping growth of public debt, contrary to what he sought, putting Brazilians in a difficult situation. The dollar hit R$6,10 on Friday (29/11) – a record for the semi-peripheral country. There is a refusal to make a radical adjustment; this is what is expected by countries at the center of the world economy.
It is not difficult to foresee a minimum 5% increase in the IPCA soon above the Central Bank’s target. This will increase the price of raw materials, food and intermediate goods essential for the production and transportation of basic necessities. Returning to what was written about the oligarchy and the Proclamation of the Republic, when the first military coup took place in the country, what we are seeing is a history that is going through a period of ups and downs. A period of coalition…
And when any ghost appears, the ferocious dog bites us and we have a long authoritarian period. It is worth remembering that the 2016 coup is not over yet. The populism of aggregation without the support of Congress only embitters losses. This makes us already worried about 2026. And Bolsonarism, even without Jair Bolsonaro, is still a strong movement capable of rallying many messianics who love a tire.
*João dos Reis Silva Junior He is a professor at the Department of Education at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar). Author, among other books, of Education, Class Society and University Reforms (Associated Authors) [https://amzn.to/4fLXTKP]
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