By LUIS FELIPE MIGUEL*
Considerations on the economic measures package.
It seems that the announcement of the package of economic measures by Minister Fernando Haddad was a blunder. The PT members are trying to make a fuss about increasing the income tax exemption to R$5, as if it were a revolutionary measure, but the truth is that it doesn't work.
It was a small attempt to sugarcoat a very bitter pill – and, furthermore, the leadership of Congress has already warned that it will not pass the measure so easily.
It is a small nod to a segment of society that Fernando Haddad calls the “middle class” – the well-off who find themselves on a tightrope. The middle class itself was excluded, since the table will increase the tax burden on those who earn more than R$7,5. And the poorest lose out with the restriction on the salary bonus (an almost gratuitous act of cruelty, with insignificant fiscal impact), the reduction of the minimum wage and new rules for the BPC.
The small tax to be levied on the rich, if (and this is a big “if”) the measure is approved in Congress, is far too little to establish a progressive taxation regime.
The Lula government has surrendered to pressure from capital and is moving towards austerity.
By reducing the real adjustment of the minimum wage, it reinforces the overexploitation of the workforce and the vulnerability of retirees. If the rule announced by Fernando Haddad had been in effect since Lula's first term, the minimum wage today would be around R$1 – a loss of almost 30%.
And fighting fraud is always welcome, but the new BPC rules penalize many families, those that have more than one person in a dependent situation (elderly or disabled).
It seems that the idea of growth by stimulating the domestic market, a pillar of Lula's economic policy, has been abandoned. It seems that the commitment to combat extreme poverty has been deflated.
Fernando Haddad and, consequently, Lula embraced fiscalism and the discourse of reducing the State, practically without resistance.
The reaction of the “market” showed that it is still not enough. But Fernando Haddad has already met with the bankers and signaled that he is willing to give in even more.
The rise in the dollar was that nice combo: pressuring for more cuts, wearing down a government that is not considered fully trustworthy and still making money from speculation.
Roberto Campos Neto, a shameless Bolsonaro supporter, did nothing to control the exchange rate. It was sad to see Gabriel Galípolo, his successor appointed by Lula, applauding the Central Bank's inaction.
How will the government maintain its anti-high interest rate speech with Gabriel Galípolo in charge of the Central Bank? It will become clear that it is just a show.
It is not just the adjustment. Lula sanctioned the law that “governs” the spree of parliamentary amendments without vetoes, accepting, without a fight, the hijacking of the public budget by the predatory political elite – and therefore, the immobilization of his own government.
Nor is he capable of taking a step to block the military coup, even at its weakest moment. He preferred to take the opportunity to include in the package the reduction of some immoral privileges of the officers, believing that now the resistance of the uniformed would be less. A clear message: help with the “adjustment” and we will leave your coup-mongering alone.
They will say that “this Congress is not possible”, that “the correlation of forces is negative”. True. But where is Lula’s legendary capacity for political articulation? Where is his ability to find loopholes and build consensus?
We see a government on the ropes. Worse still: it has no desire to react and defend its social base. Its leadership is divided between an aging president who is unable to position himself in the face of circumstances that are very different from those of his first terms, and a finance minister who has completely surrendered to fiscal orthodoxy.
With the PT between surrender and cornered and the PSOL pro-Boulista transformed into the external wing of the PT, there is a lack of opposition on the left that would at least increase the burden of adopting anti-people measures.
It would have been better to elect Simone Tebet. At least we had hope that the CUT would seek some kind of mobilization, instead of limiting itself to releasing a bland note.
* Luis Felipe Miguel He is a professor at the Institute of Political Science at UnB. Author, among other books, of Democracy in the capitalist periphery: impasses in Brazil (authentic). [https://amzn.to/45NRwS2].
Originally posted on the author's social media.
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