The Trump administration has already begun

Image: Sandra González Casado
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By GILBERTO MARINGONI

Trump's rhetoric echoes attempts to return to the unilateralism of the 1990s or to try to gain an advantage in a renegotiation of forces in the face of an unprecedented global power struggle.

1.

For the purposes of setting the global agenda, Donald Trump's government began the week before Christmas, through a post on the X network. There, the reelected president spread to the world his desire to buy Greenland, take back the Panama Canal - built and controlled by the USA between 1904 and 1999 - and annex Canada, making it the 51st state of the federation.

The posts have been uninterrupted since then, with blatant provocations, such as publishing a map of North America with the United States and Canada merged under the colors of the Stars and Stripes flag. Or renaming the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, in addition to repeating statements about the strategic need to possess Greenland, an autonomous territory under Danish control, something already discussed during his first term. As in politics, the power to set the agenda – or to define the major themes of public debate – is essential in any dispute, Trump has centralized international news.

Last week, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rejected the claims made against her colonial trophy, followed by Olaf Scholz and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. Then, Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum recorded a scathing video against the future occupant of the White House.

Donald Trump's international forays have been backed by two allies. The first is billionaire Elon Musk, who has positioned himself as the president-elect's chief minister, interlocutor and spokesperson. Elon Musk has publicly expressed his support for the Alliance for Germany (AfD), a far-right party close to Nazism, in the parliamentary elections on February 23, which will determine the country's new government. And Mark Zuckerberg, on Tuesday (January 7), announced in a shocking video the end of the fact-checking and verification system on Meta platforms (Facebook, Instagram and Threads). In other words, the internet will be ruled by dog-eat-dog rules, with no restraint whatsoever.

2.

It is essential to examine these initiatives together to understand the environment Donald Trump has created for his inauguration. It doesn’t matter whether these actions will materialize later; what matters are their repercussions now. Unlike what traditionally happens, when a head of state only begins to govern after having the pen in hand, the extremist fills Joe Biden’s political void and seeks to smooth over the rough edges that persist in the domestic arena. These include the defeat in the Supreme Court – which has a Republican majority – in the case of porn actress Stormy Daniels – and discontent among his party’s base regarding the composition of the powers. Nothing that a good external skirmish can’t solve.

It is worth noting that none of Donald Trump's statements target the country's main enemies, China or Russia. One would expect explosive statements at least against the second global power, which threatens the US in trade, influence in the global South and in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and the cloud economy.

There is calculation in this strategy. The new president appears to be seeking to renegotiate the terms of the Atlantic alliance, now that the war in Ukraine is heading towards its conclusion, with a clear Russian victory. From this rearrangement – ​​or during it – he will define the bases for the greater confrontation.

The first effect of the Ukrainian conflict was not felt on the battlefields, but by making Western Europe’s political and economic influence irrelevant in the global context. The European Union’s largest economy, Germany, is heading towards a process of deindustrialization, amid a serious economic and political crisis. Emmanuel Macron’s government has become a lame duck, faced with unedifying maneuvers to distort the outcome of the 2024 parliamentary elections. And Great Britain is experiencing its slow and sure process of decline. Across the continent, the clouds of the far right are looming.

It is not known whether the US will withdraw from NATO and multilateral organizations linked to the UN, as Donald Trump announced during his first term. However, his rhetoric echoes attempts to return to the unilateralism of the 1990s or an attempt to position itself with an advantage in a renegotiation of forces in the face of the unprecedented dispute for global power between the Western and Eastern axes and the consolidation of areas of influence not only in Europe, but in Latin America and parts of the Global South.

Donald Trump is constantly involved in politics and fighting for positions. In this, he contrasts with leaders who believe it is possible to get by with retreats, bureaucratic measures and the eternal search for illusory comfort zones.

*Gilberto Maringoni is a journalist and professor of International Relations at the Federal University of ABC (UFABC).


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