The market didn't like it... so what?!

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By FERNANDO NOGUEIRA DA COSTA*

This democratically elected Broad Front government is against the extreme right and pro-poor

President Lula's inauguration was a popular success. It had international repercussions with photos on the front page of the main newspapers in the western world. The ministers' inauguration demonstrated the correctness of their appointments. All are experienced politicians – governors, senators, congressmen and leaders in their fields.

Soon, the term began with the program presented in the campaign. The process of disarming the civilian population began. The far-right government cadres were exonerated. Relevant state-owned companies for Brazilian development, such as Petrobras, were removed from the privatization list.

But the press, usually guided by anonymous “analysts and specialists”, therefore jokingly nicknamed “would make limers”, stamped in the headline: “The market did not like it”… so what?! “Lost, dummy, don’t bother!”

Is the market-god supernatural? Despite appearing to be omnipresent, he is not omniscient, as he cannot guess the future resulting from multiple and unknown decisions by all the different economic agents. If he were psychic, he would accurately anticipate the future. Then he would lose his alleged omnipotence, as he would no longer be able to change the pre-announced course...

After all, who are the worshipers of the market? Are they submissive to the doctrine of neoliberalism? Do they defend absolute market freedom and a restriction on state intervention in the economy, which should only occur in essential sectors and even then to a minimum degree?

Yeah, mané, social-developmentalism won the election! Its supporters prioritize controlling inflation to protect real wages and sustained development by expanding the internal market with an active social policy and the external market.

Markets with risks or rumors, small or weak, such as stocks and the dollar, in the Brazilian economy, are subject to rises/falls in rumors and falls/rises in facts. But they do not directly affect popular interests.

The volume accumulated over the course of annual trading on the spot stock market may impress laypeople. With the fall in basic interest (Selic) it went from R$ 4,1 trillion in 2019 to R$ 7,2 trillion in 2020 and reached R$ 8 trillion in 2021. It fell to R$ 7,2 trillion in 2022. Brazilian market reached BRL 9,8 trillion in November 2022.

However, the average daily volume of the stock market is relatively small: BRL 29,8 billion in 2022, below the BRL 33,4 billion reached in 2021. For comparison, in November 2022, holders of federal bonds held by the public had BRL 5,6 trillion invested in them and traded a daily average of BRL 1,86 trillion in the secondary market, 96% of which in repurchase agreements.

In 2018, the number of individual investor accounts at B3 was 814 thousand and, in December 2020, the 3,2 million mark was reached with the flight from fixed income to variable income. In the first half of 2021, it reached the milestone of 3,8 million individual investor accounts. With the number of investors, there was a drop in the median balance of shares in custody from BRL 6 thousand in the 3rd quarter of 2021 to BRL 3 thousand in 2022.

The participation of individual investors fell from 21,4%, reached in 2020, to 12,7% in December 2022. In contrast, institutional investors (stock and pension funds) participate with 26%, but foreign speculators with 57% are “who calls the shots”. Financial institutions hold only 4%.

Why do people in the market prioritize fiscal responsibility over the social responsibility of an unelected government with their support? They criticize President Lula's statements against privatizations, labor reform, fiscal responsibility and, arrogantly, say: “'Lula will only make a good government if he abandons the economic ideas of the Workers' Party'. Well, well, they preach an electoral fraud in favor of the failed neoliberalism?!

The key idea of ​​the left, explained by Lula in his inauguration, is the reduction of poverty and social inequality. The right thinks this “cradle luck” is “natural”…

With regard to combating inequality, one of the battles – apart from the use of progressive taxation – will be extremely difficult. The so idolized monetary regime, to reach the inflation target, is justification for the absurd interest rate in relation to the rest of the world, set by the autonomy of the Central Bank of Brazil. It is the highest real interest rate in the world.

Do the math: in some banks, you are already a customer Consulting who have a turnover above R$ 5 million. In total, there are 66 thousand family groups and 147 thousand CPFs. Their financial volume reached BRL 1,883 trillion, that is, BRL 12,818 million per capita.

The total financial volume varied “only” 5,74% in the year to November 2022. The rich people reduced the share of shares in the total portfolio from 34% in December 2021 to 31% on that date. But they didn't get away from them fast enough.

Yields on investments in funds and variable income were well below the 12% of those who invested only in fixed income (CDI). With interest of 1% per month (equivalent to 13,75% pa), BRL 5 million yields BRL 50 thousand in one month or BRL 634 thousand per year with compound interest. Only. This with sovereign risk and no stock market or dollar risk.

Some economists say that inflation is a distributional conflict. In Brazil, the resolution of this antagonism, in the Inflation Target Regime, is in favor of those who hold capital, accentuating distributive inequality... status quo.

It is deplorable the performance of poor believers, submissive to the indoctrination of "evangelical" (sic) pastors, and male alpha (dominant and confident) without abandoning the Cold War-era doctrine of conscription. Anachronistic anti-communism is, for these illiterate people, just a false justification compared to any threat of communism, buried for decades.

These idiots – unaware of the damage done to their own reputation and to other citizens – express a continuous collective delirium, in their parallel world, based on fake news circulating in their echo chambers. They defend an authoritarian, religious, conservative in customs and armaments nationalism, under military yoke. No wonder, yoke or yoke is a piece of wood fitted over the head of oxen...

Some only read the Bible, if they can read it, others read nothing except "uotzap” from your class with self-confirmation bias. In their case, as the majority appears to be composed of elderly people, they will not have salvation, as they will carry their ignorance to the tombs.

After all, who is this group of scammers, preachers of the military dictatorship, promoters of riots and responsible for terrorist acts? No one from the press or research institutes ventured to survey, in person and directly, the socioeconomic (gender, age, income, etc.) and educational profile of these vagabonds camped for two months in front of the barracks.

The best source of up-to-date information in this regard is the Evaluation of the Jair Bolsonaro Government and Expectations about the Lula Government, a survey report carried out by the Datafolha Institute in December 2022. It does not directly show the profile of the “cattle” in front of the military barracks, but it demonstrates the reaction of public opinion.

Three out of four Brazilians (75%) are against the protests of supporters of the elusive former president. Since the end of the second round of the presidential race, they have set up roadblocks and camped in front of barracks, demanding military intervention against the election results. There are 21% in favor of these protests, and the rest are indifferent (3%) or did not give an opinion (1%).

Support rates for protests calling for military intervention are highest in the South (28%) and in the North and Midwest (29%), among the richest (36%), in the evangelical segment (31%) and among entrepreneurs (39%). Unfortunately, they are indicators of the low cultural (and democratic) level existing in these regions and social groups.

Among those who voted for Bolsonaro, in the second round of the election, 44% are in favor of these protests, and 50% against, with 6% indifferent or without an opinion. For 56%, people in mobilization in favor of a military coup and against the Constitution must be punished, because it dictates respect for the result of the election and the democratic alternation of power.

Among Bolsonaro's voters in the dispute against Lula, in the second round, 67% are against the punishment of campers asking for a military coup, and 29% are in favor. In the PT's electorate, 81% believe that punishment is necessary, only 15% believe that these people should not be punished.

Considering a scale from 1 to 5 where 1 means being a Bolsonarist and 5 being a PT supporter, 32% placed themselves in position 5, a PT supporter, and 9%, in position 4, inclined towards PTism. The intermediate position (3) covers 20%, and 25% place themselves in position 5, Bolsonarists, with 7% in position 2, inclined to Bolsonarism. There are 5% without fitting any of the positions on the scale, and 1% did not respond. There are 41% leftists against 32% rightists.

Among the poorest, in the family income range of up to 2 minimum wages, 40% position themselves as PT, and 21%, as Bolsonaristas. In the lower middle class range, from 2 to 5 wages, these indexes at 24% and 30%, respectively, and this trend is maintained among those with an income of 5 to 10 wages (21% to 25%), i.e. high average. Among the richest, 40% position themselves as Bolsonaristas, and 13%, as PT.

In the share of Brazilians voting for Lula, in the second round of the 2022 election, 63% are positioned as PT, 15% are inclined to PT, in position 4, and 16% are in the intermediate position. Among those who voted for Bolsonaro, 56% position themselves as Bolsonarists, 14% place themselves close to Bolsonarism, in position 2, and 3% are in the middle position of the scale.

Is the need for this elected government of the Frente Ampla democratic to be against the extreme right and in favor of the poor explained?

*Fernando Nogueira da Costa He is a full professor at the Institute of Economics at Unicamp. Author, among other books, of Support and enrichment network. Available in https://fernandonogueiracosta.wordpress.com/2022/09/20/rede-de-apoio-e-enriquecimento-baixe-o-livro/

 

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