the devastated country

Clara Figueiredo, series_ Brasília_ fungi and simulacra, esplanade, 2018


The scenario is not favorable, but if we want to defeat this mismanagement, this humanitarian and national tragedy, we have to unite at all costs

The legal-parliamentary coup that tore up the 1988 constitutional pact, a political and social pact, continues to devastate the country. The bowels of Lava Jato are exposed and military tutelage is confessed by none other than General Villas Bôas, guarantor of Jair Bolsonaro's victory. And the revelations keep happening without the occasional democrats, the liberal right that is only opposition when their interests are threatened, manifest themselves.

Lava Jato and the Army ensured the victory of the candidate for dictator and the parties that supported him and today say they oppose the authoritarian, obscurantist, denialist and religious fundamentalist character are in crisis. The implosion of the PSDB-DEM, the unmasking of its support, embarrassing it is true, to the captain are rotten viscera like those of Lava Jato. The resounding victory of Arthur Lira revealed a divided PSDB with a majority in favor of moderation, through the mouth of its new dauphin, Eduardo Leite. Moderation reaffirmed, as if the country were not heading towards the abyss, in view of Bolsonaro's release of all types of weapons and ammunition to his supporters.

In the DEM, we have a minuet of ACM Neto joining embarrassed, behaving like a boy who was caught playing pranks and blatantly lies. The totally pro-government MDB in the Senate, with the usual exceptions, is silent after the defeat of Baleia Rossi and the betrayals of the PSDB and DEM. These parties present themselves as liberal democratic opposition, supporters of the government's economic agenda, but not of its authoritarian bias or its environmental, foreign, educational, scientific and cultural policies and, particularly, in the face of the pandemic.

Lira's victory goes beyond the Board of the Chamber of Deputies, which is already a lot for the simple approval of the BC's so-called independence, it started 2022. The year 2021 will be decisive in defining how chess will be built until the presidential elections.

all divided

The center-right in crisis is divided, Bolsonaro and Centrão co-opt a large part of their congressmen and, above all, impose their agenda and speech. They seek to consolidate a social and electoral base with their conservative and liberal preaching, however much the authoritarian, even fascist character of Bolsonaro and his surroundings frightens them. The calculation is class interest, to avoid turning to the left by all means, to escape the agenda of social and structural reforms, the distribution of income, wealth and assets. For this, measures such as the independence of the BC are essential, which renounces the country's sovereignty over its currency, exchange rate and development; the dismantling of the national state, state-owned companies and public banks; the radical opening of the economy and its deregulation, when the world is moving in the opposite direction. This shift by the PSDB and DEM will have consequences, as these parties, plus the MDB, represent a portion of the non-Bolsonarist center-right electorate that will not accept this position and should seek an alternative.

The lefts live their labyrinth, with several candidates, which is legitimate and normal in a 2-round system. They face dissidents in their own camp and with the temptation of an alliance with the liberals, be it Ciro Gomes with the DEM, or Orlando Silva and Tabata Amaral with Luciano Huck, an explicit renunciation of a center-left alternative defended by the PT. It is still too early to know how this political struggle will evolve, because in each party there are broad sectors for and against this surrender. The only certainty is that everything will depend on what will happen this year and on our ability to fight and oppose and win popular support to be an alternative to this right-wing hegemony that won the 2016 municipal elections, the 2018 general elections and, now, again, the municipalities.

Crisis scenario

We are heading towards a 1st semester of unemployment, a growing pandemic without universal vaccination and the risk of inflation, without assistance. The scenario is one of social and political crisis without ruling out a social explosion. The government's policy only aggravates this situation, there are no signs of growth, employment and income policies, simply “reforms” as if they would bring cheap food, employment and peace to the majority of Brazilian men and women. Thus, it is not discarded, despite the large majority against it in the Chamber and in the Senate, the Fora Bolsonaro, its impeachment.

The Supreme Court is no longer able to maintain Lula's unjust and illegal conviction and the PT is also experiencing its moment of decisions in the search for a broad leftist alliance that avoids a 2nd round between Bolsonaro and the liberal right led by the PSDB-DEM alliance. MDB. At the moment, everyone is divided or still in the process of being defined and with internal disputes about what to do, be it the center-right or the center-left coalition.

In the field of the left, Ciro and the PDT have their path traced. Guilherme Boulos, in the absence of Lula as a legitimate candidate, is on his way to being a candidate, having already appointed a parallel government, a shadow cabinet. On the PSB-PC do B front, the proposal for an alliance has been on the table for some time, either with Rodrigo Maia and his Democrat dissidence or with Luciano Huck, or both. Lula decided, given the impossibility of being a candidate, to put the name of Fernando Haddad as a legitimate and viable candidate.

We live in a moment in which the opposition task and the construction of an alternative to the current government fall on the shoulders of the center-left, in face of the fragility, division and adherence of the center-right parties. We run the risk of Bolsonaro's re-election if we are not able to unite the left and convince broad democratic sectors to vote for a center-left alternative, if not in the 1st, then in the 2nd round. The risk is that, divided, we will not go to the 2nd round and hand over a victory to the extreme right or have to opt, in the 2nd round, for the lesser evil that means the continuity of the dismantling of the national State and the deconstitution of political and human rights. workers' social

The scenario is not favorable, but if we want to defeat this mismanagement, this humanitarian and national tragedy, we have to unite at all costs. Otherwise, we will betray our legacy and future generations. What divides us is not the government program or alternatives to the surrender of our elites to external dependence, their authoritarian vocation and heritage, their blindness to profound social inequalities, their defense of privileges and the concentration of assets, income and national wealth in your hands. What divides us is our own political inability to see the reality that imposes on us the unity of all democratic, nationalist and progressive forces.

* Jose Dirceu he was Minister of the Civil House in the first Lula government. Author, among other books, of Memoirs (Editorial generation).

Originally published on the website Power360.


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