By EDUARDO VASCO*
If in Europe and Asia Donald Trump's foreign policy could result in the weakening of American interventionism, the scenario in Latin America will probably not follow this trend.
With a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, Donald Trump will have greater control over American politics. Furthermore, everything indicates that he has learned a little from the mistakes of his first term and this time he will have highly trusted men in key government positions. There is much concern among traditional elements of the establishment, that he reorganize the entire state bureaucracy and build a Deep State own.
Donald Trump's overwhelming strength, proven in these elections, indicates that the traditional owners of Deep State may have to adopt the maxim of “If you can't beat him, join him”. Major newspapers, predicting a Republican victory, decided not to endorse either candidate, despite their coverage being clearly anti-Trump and pro-Harris.
In the final months of the campaign, it was also possible to see an increase in funding for Donald Trump's candidacy by large corporations, compared to the period before Kamala Harris entered the race (although she still received twice as much money as the Republican). The most recent forecasts from financial market mechanisms also indicated a victory for Donald Trump, in contrast to the technical tie seen in the polls.
Despite this, if the US political regime adapts to Donald Trump, its representatives will do everything they can to obtain concessions from the president-elect. The main publications that guide American foreign policy makers, such as the Foreign Affairs, have published articles warning of the harm that a pure Trumpist policy would represent for the United States. In other words, how isolationism would weaken the imperialist system of global domination.
The Brazilian and Latin American case
However, while Donald Trump’s foreign policy in Europe and Asia could weaken American interventionism, the scenario in Latin America is unlikely to follow this trend. Of course, imperialism is in a historical phase of decline, but as the United States’ backyard, the continent has greater difficulty in reacting against imperial domination. The ruling classes in our countries are nothing more than vassals of Washington, which, due to its geographical proximity, exercises more effective control over them than over those in other continents.
We are one of the points of least divergence between the Trumpist wing and the “globalist” wing of the American bourgeoisie. Both agree that the Hemisphere should be under the exclusive control of the United States. The Monroe Doctrine is part of the political ABC of these two wings. The foreign debt trap enslaves our people under the yoke of the IMF and the World Bank. Our abundant natural resources make us immediate prey for the large industrial monopolies.
Donald Trump has a policy that is extremely favorable to the voracity of big oil companies, and Brazil and Venezuela smell of oil. Elon Musk, the most prominent Trumpist tycoon, looks at the lithium reserves of Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia with undisguised greed (just remember his words during the coup in Bolivia).
In recent years, the United States has escalated its offensive on our continent. While Donald Trump, in his first term, adopted a relatively pacifist policy towards the rest of the world, in Latin America he almost overthrew the governments of Nicaragua (2018) and Venezuela (2019), in addition to being successful with the coup d'état in Bolivia (2019) and the election of a puppet in Brazil (2018).
While maintaining the spoils of our countries, Donald Trump’s protectionism (followed in many ways by Joe Biden) has hit Brazil’s exports hard. He imposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian steel, accusing us of being a “threat to US national security.” Biden maintained this measure and now everyone considers that the tariffs will also harm the export of corn, soybeans, iron, biofuels and machinery parts.
Trade transactions with the US already had a deficit of US$1,1 billion in 2023 and the reduction in exports, driven by high tariffs, is expected to increase this deficit even further. Donald Trump's economic policy is also expected to raise interest rates and the dollar, leading to higher inflation in Brazil. The major Brazilian monopoly press – a subsidiary of US media outlets – is already using this to push even harder for fiscal tightening, because international banks will need to offset losses from protectionism in the US by increasing the plunder of other countries.
The need for Brazil to reposition itself
If the policy of submission (which Lula has not been able to overcome) towards the US is maintained, the economic crisis in Brazil will worsen dramatically. Of course, the first to feel it (and those who will feel it most deeply) are the poor, the workers and the peasants. But businessmen who do not belong – entirely – to the select group of anti-national leeches and parasites will also be strongly affected.
Brazil will preside over BRICS during Donald Trump's first year in office in the United States. One of the country's main tasks will be to advance the de-dollarization process within the bloc, initiated and driven by China and Russia. Among the government's serious mistakes regarding BRICS is opting for a slower process of abandoning the dollar as the exclusive trading currency. Given the new reality, this will have to be reviewed and reversed, because reducing and – hopefully – ending dependence on the dollar is an imperative need for any nation that seeks to be sovereign.
In fact, Brazil's presidency of BRICS, amidst Donald Trump's increasingly negative economic relationship with the United States, presents an unmissable opportunity to distance itself from this almost slavery-like dependence. When it finds it difficult to export soybeans to the United States, for example, Brazil could direct its exports to China. Steel could also be directed to the United Arab Emirates and Latin America and the Caribbean, which are major importers from Brazil.
In addition to BRICS, there is also an opportunity to strengthen Latin American integration through regional mechanisms such as CELAC and MERCOSUR (provided that the policies of these organizations are reoriented toward national interests). Now that the Democrats have been beaten and driven out of the White House, Congress and the Senate, President Lula may also feel less tied to their pressures, backtrack on the government's attacks on Venezuela and Nicaragua and seek to restore good relations with both countries, which would be vital for strengthening Brazil and the region in the face of the upcoming offensive.
Because if the government continues its hostilities against the brotherly countries, it will be objectively allying itself with Donald Trump. This will make it clear to all the naive people led by the Globo network that the attack on Venezuela is nothing more than an alignment with the national and international extreme right.
Here comes a very delicate point that deserves deep reflection from Lula and the PT. Donald Trump's victory boosts the coup-plotting instincts of the entire Latin American oligarchy and, particularly, the far right, which is still growing. It is not only excited and motivated, but will also receive material support to destabilize the minimally nationalist governments in the region. Javier Milei has already demonstrated that he is the spearhead of the imperialist offensive in Latin America, with Donald Trump in power in the USA this partnership will grow.
The pressure on Brazil will double. Jair Bolsonaro has just declared that Donald Trump’s election “is a very important step” for him to return to government – and, if that is not possible, someone he supports. But the retired captain did not hide his hopes for the support of the new US government: “I believe that Trump would like me to be eligible.” Demonstrating his passionate willingness to serve American imperialism again, as if he were wagging his tail for his master, Jair Bolsonaro said that he “knows his place”: “I am for him as Paraguay is for Brazil.”
It is crystal clear that the pro-Bolsonaro opposition will try to take full advantage of Donald Trump’s assumption of power to further bind Brazil to Uncle Sam. Because, although Donald Trump is not a typical representative of the American imperialist system, the pro-Bolsonaro supporters – lovers of the American flag – see him as the great symbol of the power and strength of the United States, which must reign eternally over the face of the Earth. In the Brazilian Congress, there are many examples of this vassalage, starting with Eduardo Bolsonaro, who was hugging Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
But US agents are spread throughout Congress and also in state governments, city halls and all organs of power in Brazil. Lula and the PT will have to confront them forcefully, which means abandoning the alliances they have made even with Bolsonaro supporters themselves – the PT supports 52 mayors who are also supported by PL. The press is taking advantage of both the results of the municipal elections and the American elections to campaign for a centrist government, that is, a government of the neoliberal oligarchic right, a lackey of the US – or a broad front to which Lula would submit out of fear of the scarecrow of Bolsonarism.
But this fifth column, which is also within the government, is as much an agent of the American regime as the Bolsonarists, so their rhetorical attacks on Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro should not be misinterpreted as nationalism. A deposition of Lula (whether in the elections or not) could serve both Donald Trump's and Bolsonaro's interests. establishment imperialist.
The conclusion, , once again, is that the Lula government can still reduce Brazil's dependence on American imperialism, taking advantage of the weakening of the Deep State and the regime as a whole with Donald Trump's isolationism. But to do so, it will have the obligation to combat US agents in Brazil, who could unite to prevent Brazil from moving away from this dependence.
*Edward Basque is a journalist. Author, among other books, of The Forgotten People: A History of Genocide and Resistance in Donbass. [https://amzn.to/3AjFjdK]
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