By ANDREW KORYBKO*
A new architecture of European security is taking shape and its final configuration is shaped by the relationship between France and Poland
Everyone in Europe is wondering what form French President Emmanuel Macron’s potential plans to extend his country’s nuclear umbrella over the rest of the continent might take, especially considering the risks they could entail following the very negative reaction from Moscow. Vladimir Putin suggested that Emmanuel Macron was following in the footsteps of Napoleon, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was much more direct in describing Emmanuel Macron’s words as a threat and even openly comparing him to Hitler.
O jornal The Economist published an article about the options available to you, the most realistic of which is parking Gusts nuclear-capable countries in Central and Eastern Europe and include some of these countries in its quarterly nuclear air force exercises codenamed “Poker”. According to one of his sources, “In recent days, other allies (apart from Italy, which participated once in 2022) have offered to participate.” The most obvious candidate is Poland, whose prime minister declared earlier this month that he wants nuclear weapons.
Its president appealed once again to the US, in his latest interview with Financial Times last week to host some of its nuclear weapons, but received a prompt negative response from US Vice President DJ Vance. He said he would be “shocked” if Donald Trump agreed because it could lead to a “nuclear conflict”. Seeing as France has been Poland’s ally since the Napoleonic era, despite having let Poland down against the Nazis, Poland may now prioritize the French option proposed by The Economist,.
This would be a turnaround if ever there was one, as Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna – from the ruling liberal-globalist coalition, which opposes the outgoing conservative president – responded to the US nuclear weapons call last May with consistent points that also ring true for the French. In his words, “Poland will not become a nuclear power (since it would not gain operational control over these weapons), and Russian missiles will be aimed at these facilities (where they are based).”
Poland may therefore postpone hosting the Gusts French nuclear weapons, which in any case would be a major decision that would probably require a lot of negotiations and planning rather than quick action by both parties in favor of participating in their exercises.”Poker” quarterly. In that case, they would become prestige-building exercises, showing the renewed strength of their historic alliance, which would probably also aim to co-administer central and eastern Europe.
The prestige element is important, as there is no credible “Russian threat” to Poland or France to justify Poland’s inclusion in the “Poker” of France, much less possibly base Gusts with nuclear weapons there, but dramatic feats like the one described above could rally some Europeans. In particular, this is the bloc's liberal-globalist elite that has come to believe its own propaganda about Russia and some people in central and eastern Europe with pathological fears of it, both of whom would fall under joint Franco-Polish influence.
Poland may fall further under French influence over time as well, in which case its opposition to the French-led proposal for a “European Army” – which was recently endorsed by Volodynyr Zelensky but later rejected by Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski – may gradually wear off. This, however, would largely depend on the outcome of Poland’s May presidential election, as the liberal-globalist candidate may agree to it, while the conservatives and populists would remain opposed.
If the ruling coalition wins the presidency, greater French influence over Poland will occur in the event of being invited to participate in the exercises.”Poker” quarterly in France and possibly one day host their own Gusts with nuclear weapons. We could then see Poland inviting more foreign military forces onto its territory. This would align with Tusk’s proposal last week for the EU and NATO to jointly protect Poland’s eastern border. In line with his preferences, he and his president would likely prefer EU forces over NATO/US forces.
The conservative and populist opposition (which are not the same thing) prefer the opposite, NATO/US forces instead of EU ones, and so more foreign forces may end up being based in Poland regardless. However, the point is that any “European Army” could establish a large military presence in Poland if the liberal-globalist candidate becomes president, after which Poland may turn to what could be a European Union possibly led by France instead of Germany, at the expense of its alliance with America.
On that note, Tusk and Sikorski have made irresponsible statements in the past about Donald Trump, such as smearing him as a “Russian agent,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio just put Sikorski in his place for giving false credibility to rumors about Elon Musk cutting Ukraine off from Starlink. In other words, bilateral ties are not very good right now. So they will probably get even worse if the liberal-globalists take full control of the government upon winning the presidency and then make tangible moves to pull Poland away from the US.
A new European security architecture is taking shape as the Ukrainian conflict approaches its inevitable end, and among the most significant variables shaping its final configuration is the relationship between France and Poland, with the outcome of the latter’s upcoming presidential election influencing those ties.
Poland could hypothetically participate in the exercises “Poker” of France under a conservative or populist president, while still remaining closer to the US, but such a balance is unlikely under a liberal-globalist.
Poland’s closer alignment with the European Union (via France) or the US may therefore be the most important factor in determining what this security architecture will look like given the country’s immense economic and military weight on Russia’s western border. While the expansion of French influence over Poland could be a given if it starts participating in the exercises “Poker”, which makes sense from his perspective, the next presidential election will likely decide whether this turns into a full pivot.
*Andrew Korybko holds a master's degree in International Relations from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Book author Hybrid Wars: From Color Revolutions to Coups (popular expression). [https://amzn.to/46lAD1d]
Translation: Arthur Scavone.
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