By JOÃO DOS REIS SILVA JUNIOR*
Brazil has a modernized but not republicanized state, creating difficulties in governing with the legislature and cutting spending on the military and large fortunes.
I am writing this opinion piece with an eye on the daily news. Considering this year's electoral events that have alerted the Brazilian left and the analyses published in online newspapers, with emphasis on the website the earth is round, which has always opened spaces for authors to express themselves about movements that were developing in the current context.
Despite the indictment of the January 8 coup plotters by the Federal Police, whose cases are being processed by the PGR, which is expected to make a statement in early 2025, the hegemony of the right and the extreme right is clear; and of Bolsonarism, expressed in the figure of Tarcísio de Freitas, without Bolsonaro. It is clear that fascism is still present, revealing the predominance of bilirubin, through feelings; without rationality guiding historical subjects. There seems to be no reflection and analysis, there has been none in the newspapers; news without a trace of the hijacking of reason.
In the eyes of those who read, rationality has been carried out by the bombardment of millions of news items in the corporate media, printed, television and on social networks, without any regulation of the platforms. There are, in the words of Miguel Nicolelis, three major exponents: “Big money, Big oil and Big techs"These sectors act with a peculiarity, that they seem like unpunished entities. It is necessary to say that the country in which these powerful people are located is the United States.
Conservatism and geopolitics
In global geopolitics, the far right is following a similar trajectory. The conservative and nationalist trend is expanding in Europe and the United States, influenced by social, economic and political factors. In Europe, conservatism is strengthening in several countries. In Portugal, the right is manifesting itself, with Chega, led by André Ventura, as the main far-right party. In the legislative elections of March 2024, Chega quadrupled its parliamentary representation from 12 to 48 deputies. The Democratic Alliance (AD), a center-right coalition, won the elections by a narrow margin, gaining 79 seats in Parliament. The rise of the far right in Spain reflects a broader trend in Europe, where populist and nationalist parties are gaining support. However, the ability of these parties to influence national and European politics is still limited by internal divisions and resistance from other parties and voters.
In the July 2024 French legislative elections, the New Popular Front, representing the left, won the most seats in the National Assembly, but fell short of a majority. The centrist governing coalition led by Emmanuel Macron came in second, while Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) increased its presence in parliament.
In Britain, the July 2024 general election brought significant changes. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, won a landslide victory, resulting in the largest majority in the party’s history. Keir Starmer promised to steer the country into “calmer waters” after 14 years of Conservative rule. Germany faces economic challenges and increasing political polarization.
For now, the situation is still being monitored at local and global levels, linked to Germany's relevance not only for the European Union but also on a global scale. Over the past 15 years, China has been Brazil's largest trading partner, which has been increasing over time. In fact, Chinese imports from Brazil have exceeded US$100 billion per year for the past three years.
Agriculture, trade, investment, science and technology, communications, health, energy and even cultural agreements are among some of the 37 bilateral agreements signed between China and Brazil. The agreement includes protocols on agricultural exports, as well as joint projects in innovative technology. This is how Brazil's relationship with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa) has been dynamic and quite promising for the year 2024. The accession was considered a good omen for 2025, as Brazil will assume the pro tempore presidency of BRICS, which represents a significant opportunity to deepen and expand cooperation between the member countries.
In this context, movements that oppose immigration and the European Union on a nationalist and parochial wave can be highlighted, bringing to the fore the formulation of policies along these lines. These parties and movements increasingly place their support among European youth. In the United States, the re-election of Donald Trump has been worrying for many European leaders because his populist and isolationist policies could make the far right more attractive on the continent.
Donald Trump remains a central figure for many far-right movements around the world, and his leadership style and rhetoric influence leaders in different parts of the world. The rise of the far-right is not an isolated phenomenon. It is connected to a network of leaders and movements that share conservative and nationalist ideals in different parts of the world. This development has far-reaching implications for global politics, its influence on democratic stability and international relations.
Brazil
Here, the right won or achieved percentages of the votes. In other states, where labor is organized, the center and center-right parties appear to be able to govern. In Minas Gerais, the Workers' Party (PT) performed well, especially in urban areas. In São Paulo, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) won mayoral seats, showing strength in the political center. In the Northeast, the electoral trend was confirmed.
In Bahia, the PT and the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) maintained their presence, with victories in cities. In Pernambuco, the PSB continued to be one of the parties, with city halls under its control. In Pará, the MDB and PSD also performed well, winning city halls. In the South, the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) obtained important victories in the urban sphere.
The country's agenda
Lula and Fernando Haddad announced new additions to the fiscal package on November 27, declaring income tax exemption for individuals with incomes up to R$5. They also established a fiscal framework to stabilize the public debt and reduce the Selic rate. They approved a reform of the consumption tax system. The priority is the expansion of social programs, such as Bolsa Família, to combat poverty and inequality.
As deforestation and fires continue to increase, the Brazilian government is moving towards climate change agreements, aligning itself with international commitments. The government is strengthening relations with countries in the Global South and promoting an independent foreign policy, maintaining a neutral position in international conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. These actions reflect the Brazilian government’s attempt to balance economic growth, social justice, and environmental sustainability while navigating a political landscape.
Favela and the absence of the left
Given this situation, it is difficult to think about the challenges facing the left without resorting to history. Slavery has a meaning. There is an urgent need for a new abolition of slavery in the country. What are the meanings of abolition?
It was a compensation for the oligarchs, owners of black and brown people, and, at the same time, an eviction action. The freed slaves migrated to the cities without housing, without jobs and suffering repression and prejudice of all kinds. They went to the favelas, which grew up on the margins of the State. The favelas are home to more than half of the Brazilian population.
Because they are on the fringes of the State, they are supported by philanthropies, non-governmental organizations, neo-Pentecostal churches, militias and organized crime. They live in fear and seek help from pastors; authorities in the favelas. It seems to me that this is where the challenge for the left lies. The left has distanced itself from workers while the right has drawn closer. The siege on investments in social public policies is an attack on the left. What should be done? The choice means dehumanization or the possible loss of governability in the face of rentiers, fossil fuel producers and social media entrepreneurs.
The contradictions of the Lula government
Brazil is one of the largest economies in the world, but also one of the most unequal countries. Wealth in Brazil is concentrated in a few hands, while a large part of the population lives in precarious conditions. There is constant conflict between the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary branches, affecting the government's efficiency and ability to respond to public criticism.
The country is seeking global prominence, but faces international distrust due to contradictory positions and presidential ideology. Taxing the wealthiest and the military could help reduce economic inequality by increasing the tax burden and maintaining social programs. Changes in military spending are complex, even though the armed forces are in the spotlight due to scandals involving a military coup. This situation exposes the difficulties of Brazilian and global democracy, with the exception of the Scandinavian countries.
Historically, the armed forces in Brazil, together with slave-owning farmers, participated in the first military coup on November 15, 1889, taking over a patrimonial state, which later passed into the hands of coffee growers. The Brazilian republic emerged from a coup, and the oligarchy is still present on the right and far right in the country, with the armed forces as guardians.
Brazil has a modernized but not republicanized state, which makes it difficult to govern with the legislature and cut spending on the military and large fortunes. Recently, on November 27, 2024, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, announced fiscal measures to save R$70 billion over the next two years.
Some points include income tax exemption for taxpayers earning up to R$5 per month, guaranteed salary bonus for those earning up to R$2.640, minimum wage rising above inflation by up to 2,5% per year, changes to retirement plans for the armed forces, and mandatory allocation of 50% of Congressional committee funds to public health, strengthening the Unified Health System (SUS). However, measures announced only on national television need to go to parliament, which represents the country's current oligarchs.
The moment demands optimism, the origin of national institutions; and daily attention to facts.
*João dos Reis Silva Junior He is a professor at the Department of Education at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar). Author, among other books, of Education, Class Society and University Reforms (Associated Authors). [https://amzn.to/4fLXTKP]
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