By TADEU VALADARES*
The future of the Lula-Alckmin government will largely depend on its ability to maintain a certain immobility
“I dreamed of spring and spring lost its shine \ In summer the germ of the fruit also lost its shine” (Paul Éluard, latest love poems).
M. Dear,
I really liked his speech, well elaborated analysis of the conjuncture, precise and clear contribution to the permanent internal debate of the lefts that critically support the current government. You have reflected on many topics, while this letter, which is far from being an answer, does not go so far. What I am writing to you today, much more feeling of the world – a somewhat impressionistic vision, a canvas painted in a jolt – than a carefully elaborated analysis, the result of long thought.
Still, because you're my friend, come on, let's go precarious.
For me, if we stick to the realistic dimension of the possible, if we don't allow ourselves to be seduced by hybris of the disproportionate political ambition, the future of the Lula-Alckmin government will depend a lot on its ability to maintain a certain immobility in the midst of the vertiginous dynamics that began with the conformation of the ticket that was finally victorious in the race for the presidency of the republic. The future will depend, in a nutshell, on the Lula-Alckmin government continuing to rebuild and reform the country until 2026. The maintenance of the alliance, what I call immobility. Of the vertiginous dynamics, needless to say. It proves itself every day.
I believe that in a year and a half we will know to what extent this broad alliance, the providential front articulated by Lula and Geraldo Alckmin, this careful articulation of unusual convergences that, last October, distanced us all (much? a little alone?) the neo-fascist-neoliberal extremism that threatened us with another four years of nightmare or even, in my opinion, with decades of dictatorship. Also only then will we be able to assess the real capacity of the extremist right to shape, in the clash with us, its political alliances, which will equally define its immediate future, which will, in principle, until the end of Lula's third term.
This threat from the extreme right – precisely because, despite being defeated in elections, it is here to stay for a long time – is the Nemesis of the government and also ours. Will its strength in almost continuous ascension, something demonstrated repeatedly by neoliberal neo-fascism since at least 2013, will it persist? This is the unknown that hangs over the alliance that brought Jair Bolsonaro to power in 2018, and which, despite its bandit campaign, ultimately lost in the election by a very, very narrow margin, in the final lap of the race, last October 30.
It has lost, yes, but it still has enormous power in each of the spaces, institutional or not, that count most: that of congress, that of the big business community, that of the media, that of the judiciary, that of religious reactionaries and that of the political forces. armed forces, these understood, in a very broad sense, as the complete set of armed men and women. In other words, as armed forces of another type, unconventional because they include, in addition to the three traditional ones, the military and civil police, the federal and state police, the militias and even a large part (it seems) of the men and women who hold the weapons that the past government generously placed within the reach of hunters, collectors, etc., all or almost all good citizens dedicated to the defense of human rights.
They, the arch of the ideological extreme right, well organized, disciplined, mobilized and passionately militant. In contrast, we seem to be its fragile reverse, although fortunately we are not its mirror image. The mirror image of barbarians, what is it? Easy answer: a weak variant of barbarism. Hence, by 'us' I understand – limiting myself to the party system and reasoning from non-existent 'political astronomy' – the left that party-politically has the PT as its sun, and PC do B and PSOL as planets that, integrating the system, have more or less predictable orbits. PSB, PV, PDT, etc., erratic planets, all far less reliable, orbits difficult to calculate. Of the other parties, theoretically center or center-right, better not to speak.
Our greatest alliance, embodied in the Lula-Alckmin duo, a work of high ingenuity and refined art, a construction ultimately motivated by our fear-horror 'vis-à-vis' the monster whose fantasy name is Bolsonarism, but which in actual fact it amalgamates several ideological, political, religious and economic reactionaries, themselves as or more violent than the Brazilian social reality. Can our larger alliance, if it lasts over the next few years, win the great battle that ostensibly began with the coup against Dilma, the one in which many who are with us today participated, and we with them?
This is an important question, but one that lacks abstraction. The proof of the pudding's existence, in this case, is to keep it safe from rot. Everything essential will depend, once again, on Lula and Geraldo Alckmin, our Penelopes. May they continue to weave the tapestry of this alliance that in the light of day goes well, very well, thank you, but which unravels each night, given its internal tensions, in my view tending to be explosive. Let's take heart, though. Our boat is not a boat, but an ocean liner piloted by two experienced helmsmen. That in the day to day that counts the most, they demonstrate even greater ability to keep together what is, at the limit, marked by insurmountable oppositions. I hope that this artisanal work, this long-haul navigation, continues well. But I confess that in my nightmares from time to time Titanic appears.
If this sacred alliance does not wither, if the threads managed by the two Penelopes do not break, the people, that ambiguous and essential category that for us basically means the set of the popular classes and certain fringes of the middle classes, plus all the disinherited of this land , will gain momentum to organize itself, to eventually go further. In this same movement, representative or, if you like, participatory democracy will have, more or less as always while its Wolf of the coup does not come, guaranteed indefinite time to 'stabilize' and 'improve' itself. Years? decades? Two important question marks, both equally abstract.
To the extent that the real course of the Brazilian world approaches the wishes of our 'Rousseauist' hearts, that is, if the short-term historical dynamics are favorable to us, Lulism will persist, once Lula's third presidency is concluded, like what more relevant exists in our political-partisan and ideological scenario. A 'social democratic' path, another fantasy adjective, will continue to be opened in the forest of the left, a path marked by social advances, but, in my perspective, an experiment that points to a certain and complementary economic mediocrity, if we think of the economy as from the great popular interests, not from the imaginary convergence of all the great economic and social actors.
I suspect that the sun cannot be for everyone or it will cease to be the sun. Beyond, far beyond, the statistics and indices with which we are daily bombarded, whatever the government, economic mediocrity seems likely to be installed, because the multifaceted crisis of planetary capitalism does not offer favorable prospects for major positive economic upheavals until 2026. because the 'internal' limits to the government's economic policy, largely Keynesian or neo, seem guaranteed by the gentlemen's agreement, always 'in fieri', between the government authorities and the highest fractions of the business class, agreement between, let us be bold, market socialists, on the one hand, and, on the other, the armed knights and appointed barons. Especially those who, who have been with us (and we with them) since last year, are mostly neoliberals fearful, for good reasons (theirs), of any shock, however small, to the hegemony of the 'market'.
That is, M., and by way of conclusion: to see.
*Tadeu Valadares he is a retired ambassador.
The A Terra é Redonda website exists thanks to our readers and supporters.
Help us keep this idea going.
Click here and find how
